Realizing multi-party bets are still a hard thing to pull off in a non-custiodal way in bitcoin, especially at scale.
One could do a DLC, but then you have a large amount of data has to be communicted between each participant before the transaction is broadcasted. Not to mention the fees would make small bets (think less than a dollar) not a viable possibility. The amount of data grows nearly exponentially as the number of participants grows, there are some cool math tricks there to try to shink the amount of data needed for determining the payout path, but this doesn't seem like it would work for say a 1000 person competition style bet.
One could go the hodl invoice route of having each participant pay invoices for all possible payout routes then have a central node where all the payments go through funnel where the payments go at bet completetion. The node would cancel the payout routes that lost and allow the winning ones to pass through. But this brings in a lot of issues with lightning state and if you're bet is a long window of time there's a high likelihood of things going sideways (think force closures along payout routes).
It seems there might be hope here to do this in a less custiodal way via fedimint? The prediction market module seems interesting, but not sure how it handles orcale type data, ie an attestation about the outcome of whatever is being predicted/bet on.
Going to keep thinking on this, if anyone has ideas around this I'm all ears.
So who’s going to be the baller that holds a key to a fedimint with the prediction market module enabled?
Spent the weekend building a tool to work with noaa (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data. Thinking I may expand it to work as an orcale for DLCs or something like that, but was really just a way for me to learn about duckdb (the database is IN the browser!).
Take a peek at the tool:
Source:
https://github.com/tee8z/noaa-data-pipeline
Once I've collected enough data I should be able to tell how well NOAA is at predicting weather for different locations, I've always wanted to know if there's any patterns there.
reminding myself on a day like today
nostr doesn't need damus. damus is not nostr. damus can go away today and the network lives on. damus, from what i hear, is a great client and nostr:npub1xtscya34g58tk0z605fvr788k263gsu6cy9x0mhnm87echrgufzsevkk5s is a fuckin G for what he's done for nostr. but damus is open source. it can be forked to something else. someone could take over while will moves on to other things. there are tons of other available clients. iphone users need to get out of their bubble.
Primal on iPhone is pretty decent at this point too
Man I really, really hate working with python, feel like most my time is spent dealing with import issues or some other obscure build problem instead of the actual code I’m trying to write
This is pretty cool, ngl, always wanted an easier way to see how many people are actively RBF or CPFP transactions, nostr:npub18d4r6wanxkyrdfjdrjqzj2ukua5cas669ew2g5w7lf4a8te7awzqey6lt3 crushed it on this one:
Something that may go unnoticed, there are far more devs working on bitcoin/lightning/nostr than our community really knows about. The silent ones thinking through their next idea, not ready to share it just yet. Or don’t have a large reach.
What gets me excited is knowing there are people out there working on the same protocols I am, but we don’t even know each other exist. There’s something wondering about human action in the aggregate, when it’s focused on such powerful tools for the common man.
Alright, you guys can stop trading, trying to get some channels open
Sometimes the most frustrating thing is realizing a design choice made long around before you had better knowledge of your tools/problem space is a true bottleneck to improving a code base and you only have yourself to blame
The devil in my ear just keeps saying “burn it all down and start over”
Something that fascinates me is how mechanical it can be to write good poetry/rap, you stick to a given rhyming pattern, use language in a new or interesting and have something to say, it’ll work
This is the beauty of #zapvertising
For the first time, YOU can determine the value of your attention, and receive 100% of the money spent by the #zapvertiser
This will force would-be spammers to nut up or shut up (i.e. zap higher amounts) if they want you to see their message (I just wanted to say “nut up” because of Calle 🥜)
Also, as nostr:npub1hu3hdctm5nkzd8gslnyedfr5ddz3z547jqcl5j88g4fame2jd08qh6h8nh and I outlined at nostr:npub167n5w6cj2wseqtmk26zllc7n28uv9c4vw28k2kht206vnghe5a7stgzu3r , it does not behoove would-be advertisers to spam low-sat zaps… depending on how your #nostr client shows zaps comments, it is in your best interest to zap higher amounts to compete in the free market of attention and be seen by more than just the zap recipient.
But there is another reason to zap higher sat amounts that has nothing to do with how your nostr client shows zaps…
Spamming low-value #zaps (1 or 2 sats) is a sure-fire way to piss people off (which we are seeing now). That’s why I *always* zap #696 or more (every zap I send is a zapvertisement).
By spamming low-value zaps you are signaling to the market that the value you place on attention is low — you are casting a broad net, sure, but you are failing to build a deep moat.
On the flip side, to play Devil’s Advocate, if you are currently annoyed by by 1 or 2 sent #zapvertisement spamming, I would remind you that it is 1 or 2 sats more than you will ever get on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, or Tik Tok for viewing an ad. And when #bitcoin reaches sat-cent parity, you might view that spam differently.
That said, if you are going to zapvertise, I would recommend you do so with a few hundred sats at least.
Show people that YOU value THEIR attention. When I get a low-value zap message I disregard it because the zapper has already signaled to me how they value my attention, and I personally value my attention much more than 1 sat.
Do you think the content you’re zapvertising is valuable? Good, then prove it by showing the recipient that you value their attention enough to attach a monetary premium to it.
Anyway, thanks for coming to my TED Talk. nostr:note1ym0p4qlswhkhxfz5wqs23j5rrkuc6zlgn0z0kw3xxlmzvjsfv3sqzs5hqa
These are https://satogram.xyz/ happening over lightning via keysend and lnurl, not nostr
A great write up nostr:npub15klkdfx9sh3y096a5jf895rcvkmkzvly2fm9dgxq6huqhp9576jsav4m73 did on a tool
I’ve been building, always open to collaboration and PRs.
Doppler a Domain Specific Language for Lightning:
Nothing funnier than trying to get an AI to do a repetitive task and it shows you one iteration of it then says, “okay, all done, you should repeat this process for the rest” instead of actually doing the work.
Reminds of the butter bot from Rick and Morty:
bot - “What is my purpose”
Ricky - “To pass the butter”
bot - “Oh my god”
Nothing like trying to use Zelle to pay for a rental unit deposit to make you really frustrated, damn limits. It’s supposed to be my money, I should be allowed to move however much I want whenever I want. Paying in bitcoin/lightning can’t come soon enough.
Zelle spending limits always show up at the worst time, it’s my money let me move it. Can’t wait until it’s easy to pay rent with it lightning.
nostr:npub1ew4nntskh08fzkwjusrc9u5627g639c5z6udc4q3a3plr9ns4naqxp6qlf wen can I pay you to get my pubkey higher up in the satogram order??
nostr:npub1ew4nntskh08fzkwjusrc9u5627g639c5z6udc4q3a3plr9ns4naqxp6qlf wen can I pay you to get my pubkey higher up in the satogram order??