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Not a Polar Bear
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Not a Polar Bear, who went from Electronics -> Software -> Databases -> Monetary Systems.

And as if by magic, the #Bitcoin chart at polarbitcoin.net rotates ccw by 90 degrees - because we all like charts that go up and to the right.

Happy New Year!

https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/8b83ced622535fbd85ad3e8cca86134e504248d5f242fdbd7d5ce4727a4f87e6/28b36261d0af0f9e7d7a5610b859eebbf4a8e38a83025747b6242353772a7ae6.webp

There are so many #Bitcoin predictions: 90% crash, face melting rally, etc. one of them is bound to be right. The author will feel entitled to say “I told you so”, claim the title of investment genius and be able to charge massive consultancy fees until proven wrong.

It’s a bit like the lottery prediction scam…

Imagine the lottery numbers range from 1 to 50. Email 1,000,000 people predicting the first two numbers to be selected (400 for each two number combination). With that scattergun approach you’re bound to appear to have the power to predict the future. Cash in by asking for a massive fee to supply the full set of winning numbers, disappear and then retire. Simple!

Happy Christmas!

One family tradition is chocolate money at the bottom of the bed on Christmas Day but now with of couple of extras from Mrs Bear, my fantastically patient and understanding wife.

Oh thanks nostr:nprofile1qqs2l6ukjfek0a0vcq6gd4rgke6d02dq8xujh20tly0zt6t7gvecgccpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduq3vamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wvajhgemvv5hx7un8exdp0h too.

The four year cycle will become less and less defined as major players with their financial inertia will smooth out the peaks and troughs.

I was just looking for a quick daily fix of hopium and a few sats for my jolly post.

Long term I’m full of hope and happiness

- most articles are too long

- they include more noise than signal

- readers get swamped

- concise writing is good

- bullet points are better

My thoughts on this…

If the miners have enough financial reserves - and that’s the big if - they will not sell to the market below their production cost. They will hold for as long as they need/can. Miners holding back their production will *possibly* cause a shortage of supply and stop the price taking any further: a price floor.

I think the point is…

Hash rate = fn (BTCprice, ElectricCost, MiningRigCost)

I don’t know what that formula is but in general terms examples are…

BTC price goes up - more miners join in

Electric cost goes up - miners shut down or move

Mining rigs are cheaper to buy - new miners join the fray.

There will be a momentum factor in the formula: eg: miners don’t go bust overnight but can run on reserves for a while, it takes a while for new mining rigs to reach market, etc

My thought from the shower: what are governments for?

Where it says September on the x-axis you should infer June when looking at M2