If you’d like to help BRK by giving 5s of your time, you can “star” the repo on GitHub:

nostr:npub1nkenffr9eslkzplds3lwcz7xeq67w6a9qcjlfsvspj7tnhuq3kgsram48g, se me permite, uma sugestão para o Supply By Price, colocar uma linha do acumulado. eu fiz um exemplo no gimp.

12% dos bitcoins estão acima do valor actual.

How to Know if We Are Close to a Bitcoin Price Cycle Peak?

Here we are, with Bitcoin breaking one all-time high after another. Everything looks fantastic, and it seems this honeymoon will never come to an end.

“This time is different! It’s a supercycle!”

I’ve heard that before…

For those who have been around for a long time, we know that at some point over the next 6 to 12 months, things tend to go south. But before that, and based on prior cycle, we should see an euphoria phase, with Bitcoin’s price rising significantly. Exciting times ahead!

So how do we know when the price might be near its peak? Nobody has a crystal ball to see the future, but we can use some on-chain indicators to guide our decisions. One of them is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio.

MVRV divides Bitcoin’s market capitalization (the current value in USD of all bitcoins in circulation) by its realized capitalization (all the USD that entered the Bitcoin network at the time of purchase). You can think of it as how many times, on average, BTC holders are “in profit.” For example, an MVRV of 2 means the average holder has doubled their value in USD terms, i.e., a 100% fiat gain.

We’ve revamped our MVRV chart to make it more visually appealing and added a one-year moving average (the red-dotted line), usually called the “MVRV Momentum.” That’s because, in bull markets, the MVRV tends to bounce off this line. As of now, the average holder is up 2.18x on their original cost basis, in USD terms, as shown in the chart below.

You can also view the MVRV ratio for specific holder cohorts, either short-term holders (STH) or long-term holders (LTH), from 1 month to up to 4 years. For example, below we show the MVRV ratio for STH, who have held Bitcoin for less than 5 months. They are almost at the waterline, with an MVRV of just 1.05.

A new addition to our suite of charts is the MVRV Rolling Window Z-Score, in which we standardize (subtract the mean and divide by the standard error) of the MVRV series, so that the resulting series have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one.

We also calculate a rolling MVRV over a two-year (720-day) window, so that ancient history doesn’t skew current values. You can change this time window to any number of days using the input box provided.

The interpretation of this metric changes slightly: when it’s zero, MVRV is exactly at its historical mean. A Z-score of 2, for example, means the current MVRV is two standard deviations above the mean.

So, how can we use these metrics to identify a potential cycle peak? If we analyze MVRV peaks from previous cycles, we find that in 2017 the MVRV topped at 5.3, and in 2021 it reached 4.01. With the current MVRV sitting at 2.36, there still seems to be room for further upside before things get too hot.

We’ll continue monitoring the situation, but for now, the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin’s price keeps climbing.

That’s all for today, have a great one!

just hit 72. feel great, could honestly keep going. experienced a ton of benefits.

will definitely do it semi-frequently. highly recommend.

This week, we want to assess whether Bitcoin holders are in profit or loss in USD terms — and by what margin. To explore this topic, we're releasing a full set of charts. Let’s delve into it!

The first chart is “Coins in Profit or in Loss,” which shows the proportion of Bitcoin UTXOs that are in profit—i.e., coins that were bought at a lower USD price than the current market price—and the proportion of coins that are in loss, also in USD terms. Currently, about 97% of all coins are in profit, while the remaining 3% are in loss.

We can also visualize how much the average holder is in profit or loss. That is, for coins in profit, what’s the average return? And for coins in loss, what’s the average drawdown? Near all-time highs, as is the case now, the average return for coins in profit is 4,170%, while the average loss for coins in loss is around -1%.

Finally, we’ve also implemented the Bitcoin NUPL chart, which addresses the same topic from a different angle. NUPL stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss and represents the proportion of the Bitcoin market cap in USD that is currently in profit or loss at any given time. At the moment, approximately 56% of the Bitcoin market cap—around USD 2 trillion—is composed of unrealized profits.

As always, the new data fields are updated hourly and available for direct download in CSV/XLSX formats or in JSON via our API.

That’s all for today—have a great one!

www.bitcoinisdata.com

New Data Available for Download: M2 Global Money Supply.