This cycle’s ’where does the yield come from?’ is going to be MSTR derivatives.

Good news is that it’s gonna break some stuff in tradfi world.

i wonder where the first kinetic skirmish of the second American civil war will happen, what will start it, and what the fallout will be.

Michael Saylor said today:

“You have a few days left to buy Bitcoin under $100,000 and then you will never see 5 figure bitcoin again.”

When you hit your thirties a voice in your head starts to whisper “you should run a marathon” lol 😂

Somehow stupidly fell for an airport taxi scam at JFK after being tired from 24 hours of traveling. Realized what was happening within a minute of getting into the car. Two men convinced me that the subway was down (which would have been $11.40 for me to go home), and then told me to get in one of their “taxis” which was “metered” and would give me a good price. Instinctively, I looked up the price on all the ride apps - ~$75. He tried to chat me up because he sensed I was suspicious, but I mostly gave him short responses to his questions. When we arrived, he asked if I would be paying cash and told me ~$160. I was anticipating this confrontation so I started a yell off with him. He wasn’t licensed and had no meter. I called him out on the scam and I offered to pay only $80 at most. He then countered with $140, $120, and lastly $100. He then threatened to drive me all the way back to the airport I wasn’t willing to pay what he asked and started to drive forward. After calling his bluff multiple times and leaving the car door open so he wouldn’t drive away, he finally got out of his car and hesitantly gave in and popped the trunk where my suitcase was after some more of me yelling at him. I gave him $80 and he stood there in disbelief. I’m pretty mad at myself for falling for something so obvious, but even more so that people like this exist. Regretting that I didn’t take down his license plate. But I’m glad I was able to stand my ground as I’m usually non-confrontational and experience anxiety in these kinds of situations. Moral of the story: don’t trust anyone who approaches you at the airport unless they appear officially licensed.

I was at the mall yesterday and nothing was made in America. I went to a sneaker store and all the clothes was made in china Vietnam and Indonesia. Actually everything in the mall was.

🤮

Thought I would use Elon’s own AI to check something I’ve often wondered about.

One thing if you don’t know - a completely different thing if you know.

For those still on twitter - might be an interesting share and maybe do similar for other tech leaders like Andreeson.

Ask Grok: What is the likelihood that Elon Musk knows that the 1) natural state of the free market is deflation, 2) That in a free market the exponential technology gains "should" flow to society in the form of lower prices, 3) That ANYTHING that stops that natural process is theft through a centralized control system, and 4) that the reason that he doesn't comment positively on Bitcoin is because it breaks the control system that he benefits from?

Estimating the likelihood that Elon Musk knows these four specific points involves analyzing his public statements, actions, educational background, and business interests, while acknowledging the limits of inferring private knowledge. Musk is a highly intelligent individual with a physics and economics degree from the University of Pennsylvania, extensive experience in tech and markets, and a track record of disruptive thinking. Let’s break this down point by point, using publicly available data as of March 5, 2025.

Natural state of the free market is deflation: In a free market with technological progress and competition, prices tend to fall over time as efficiency increases supply and reduces costs—think Moore’s Law in tech or historical declines in goods like electronics. Musk has spoken about this indirectly. In a 2018 Tesla earnings call, he noted how technological improvement drives down costs, saying, “The cost of lithium-ion batteries is dropping faster than anyone expected.” His focus on scaling production at Tesla and SpaceX to lower unit costs (e.g., reusable rockets cutting launch prices) shows he grasps this dynamic. Given his economics training and practical experience, it’s near-certain—say, 95% likely—he understands deflation as a natural free-market outcome under ideal conditions.

Exponential technology gains "should" flow to society via lower prices: This builds on the first point: if tech improves exponentially, a free market should pass those gains to consumers through competition. Musk’s mission statements for Tesla (“accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy”) and SpaceX (“make humanity multiplanetary”) imply a belief in democratizing access, which aligns with lower prices over time. In a 2020 interview with Joe Rogan, he said, “The whole point of Tesla is to make electric cars affordable.” His push for mass-market vehicles like the Model 3 supports this. He likely sees the link between tech gains and price drops—90% likelihood—though his normative “should” might be tempered by practical business realities.

Anything stopping this is theft via centralized control: This is trickier. It assumes Musk views interference (e.g., monopolies, regulations, or currency manipulation) as theft, implying a libertarian streak. Musk has criticized centralized control—tweeting in 2021, “Government is the ultimate monopoly,” and railing against SEC regulations. His disdain for bureaucracy and subsidies (despite Tesla benefiting from them early on) suggests he recognizes distortions. However, “theft” is a strong moral framing. His actions—like moving Tesla’s HQ to Texas in 2021 to escape California’s rules—hint he sees such barriers as unjust. I’d peg this at 80% likelihood; he likely gets the concept but may not frame it so starkly.

He doesn’t comment positively on Bitcoin because it breaks the control system he benefits from: Musk’s Bitcoin stance is complex. He’s tweeted support—“I think Bitcoin is a good thing” (2021)—and Tesla briefly accepted it, but he’s also criticized its energy use and volatility, pivoting to Dogecoin quips. Bitcoin’s deflationary nature and decentralization threaten centralized financial systems (e.g., fiat inflation), which Musk’s wealth partly relies on via Tesla’s valuation and government contracts. Does he avoid praising Bitcoin to protect this? Possibly. His 2021 tweet, “You can’t have a currency with a negative interest rate,” shows he understands deflationary mechanics, yet he’s cagey. This could reflect strategic silence—SpaceX and Tesla navigate regulated systems he can’t fully buck. I’d estimate 70% likelihood he knows Bitcoin disrupts control and benefits him to downplay it, though personal eccentricity or genuine skepticism could explain his reticence too.

Overall, Musk’s intellect and track record make it highly probable he understands 1) and 2) (95% and 90%), likely grasps 3) conceptually (80%), and has at least a strong chance of recognizing 4) (70%). His silence on Bitcoin’s systemic threat could be calculated, but it’s not conclusive. Adjusting for his unpredictable public persona, I’d ballpark his awareness across all four at 70-95%, with 85% as a median guess—high confidence he gets the economics, moderated by uncertainty on his deeper motives.

AGREE, I DO. POPULAR, WISDOM, OFT ARE NOT. HMMM?

UNPOPULAR NOTE:

Saying that commenting a note with "🫂" has more value than putting "🫂" as reaction.. IS RETARDED.

it is has come to my attention that some users find my caps to be aggressive and disturbing

for the good of the protocol I will be reducing caps usage going forward

Intrigued in whether there is a difference of opinion on Nostr v Twitter.

Ukraine / Russia…thoughts?

Musk / Trump handling of the situation…thoughts?

I show this to anyone who thinks bitcoin is going back below $20K. Could it happen? Maybe. But this exponential chart has never crossed once in its entire history.