I think prediction markets are pretty neat. They were the primary way of predicting the outcome of elections prior to the invention of modern opinion polling.
In recent weeks the polymarket for the US presidential election has noticeably diverged from the polling. The polls have stayed flat, it’s essentially a coin flip as to who will win. The prediction markets have broke to Trump with a 60% chance of winning. Is this a real shift that bettors are seeing vs the polls or is someone manipulating the market. You could make the argument that placing bets on your preferred candidate is a capital efficient way of shifting the outcome. Journalists use the markets to shape their coverage and will start writing articles about momentum when they see the prediction markets shift. Elections are very messy so it’s easy enough to find evidence of momentum in any direction if you’re looking for examples to fit the narrative. And the narrative about a candidate pulling ahead will lead to more press and focus and is likely to help the candidate get more votes on Election Day.
All of this to say it appears one person is attempting to do this in favor of Trump.
https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bettor-trump-harris-betting-pair-polymarket/
Interesting perspective. Totally plausible. The way I see it: they’re two totally different numbers. It’s almost like the poly market is a derivative of the actual polls. In the sense that supposed one candidate polled at 52% but had huge leads in most swing states, the betting markets would weight that heavily and could conceivably go to 70%+
Ron Paul but in his fifties
Look at me I am the gov now 🍊 🪙 👀
🎯 that was the key point I made in this Startup Day presentation. It is autocorrect on steroids and literally has its roots in attempts to distill language into mathematical representation to simplify the process of translating between languages
IF YOURE NOT PAYING ATTENTION YOU PROBABLY SHOULD BE
Excellent write up by the Lightning Bounties team about nostr:npub1an84q6c03wml5lf0uwcqcr20ydwv0t0lvv0xktlcfs9seattef8sdhz6yg Startup Day in Mexico City
https://blog.lightningbounties.com/lightning-bounties-recap-of-pleblabs-startup-day-2024-cmdx
#lightning #bitcoin #builders #startupday #nostr #BUIDL
Resistors are terrorists.
The schematic of my first invention on my wall is a manifesto 🤣
Great. I will keep you posted but I’m probably going to use this. I’ll keep you posted! Thanks!
The cross posting service is open source but unfortunately it costs $100 a month for the developer account on the Twitter side so it’s a bit hard for people to run for personal use. For folks who want more features we welcome pull requests.
https://github.com/planetary-social/nos-crossposting-service
nostr:note1yef9navz36zl5mc97y5wnjghyxvj8mtts59l0g9m74m0ml7ac0gqtwcedv
Does each user pay the $100 or is it possible for a service to offer the ability to post on multiple user’s behalf? I’m pretty sure I’ve seen this capability on non nostr apps.
BACK IN MY DAY I WALKED UPHILL TO AND FROM SCHOOL IN A BLIZZARD WITH MULTIPLE GUNSHOT WOUNDS
Can’t believe they didn’t use real spears. Kids getting soft these days
Right here https://cascdr.xyz/?tab=yt-agent
I’ll give him mad credit for releasing open source AI models even though it’s probably for the wrong reasons lol
GM PV #coffeechain
