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Arceris
b79781e49c7b8be7a4d0bacf8c3a95e8944babdd426a6540aac0dddd976e2e1d
IP/corporate attorney and entrepreneur. #Bitcoin maxi. #FreeSpeech absolutist. Proud #ShedMiner.
Replying to Avatar Matt Corallo

All the talk about Ocean Pool, meanwhile https://dmnd.work/ actually out here offering StratumV2 live and not getting talked about.

Link doesn’t load for me on my phone. Will have to check with a proper computer later.

But love nostr:npub1qtvl2em0llpnnllffhat8zltugwwz97x79gfmxfz4qk52n6zpk3qq87dze & what they’re doing.

Hey nostr:npub1sg6plzptd64u62a878hep2kev88swjh3tw00gjsfl8f237lmu63q0uf63m, you know what would be a nice UX boost for CashApp? A countdown timer on the limits so you know when some capacity will open up.

Just want to move sats to cold storage expeditiously.

(Alternatively, get rid of the limits, but I’m guessing that’s not in the cards 🤣)

This… this is a great point. nostr:note1zaz9eddsesexxfjcd3fsft4ryqvs94d36a0tuqqsft7a84eq327qsjvwmc

Thanks! I should have tried harder to find.

Being reported on X, but not seeing the analysis here yet. Looks like PayPal may be the fat finger from a few days ago.

Yes, less hand wavy, and it comports with what I thought you were saying. Thanks.

But I’m not sure it overcomes my point. In 5 halvings (~2040), the subsidy is ~19M sats. Holding the fee at 25M sats, that fully covers the current security budget at a PPP of $450k/₿ in today’s dollars.

In 10 halvings (~2064), the subsidy will be 610k sats/block. A few of 25M sats/block would need to have a PPP of ~$761k/₿ in today’s dollars for the same budget as today.

At the limit (0 subsidy, in 2141), the same budget is maintained (for a fee of 25M sats/block) at a PPP of $780k/₿.

That seems a rather bearish PPP price point for 2040, 2064, and 2141.

If the PPP rises faster than this (which pretty much everyone in Bitcoin believes), then the security budget increases relative to today. Also, if total block fees go up, the security budget increases. Of course, missing these to the downside means the budget goes down, relative.

Drivechains are argued to increase the net block fee, but they’re not the only thing which can do that. And many argue that they do it in a potentially negative manner. Other techniques will also increase the net fee (or reduce the per-effective-tx fee, such as LN channels). As adoption increases, that will also bid up the fee, but PPP increases should act to push it down. So I feel 0.25₿ (25M sats/block) is pretty reasonable, long term.

So, I’m not yet convinced that the security mode is as fragile as you are suggesting.

You handwave through your main point. Why isn’t the security model viable?

Fee revenue can stay constant in Bitcoin terms (~25M sats/block) and totally pay for the security of the system. Today that means a reward of ~6.5 Bitcoin/block. In 5 halvings, that means ~44M sats/block.

So all Bitcoin has to do to meet today’s security budget is hit the purchasing power equivalent of ~$450k today… by 2040.

I somehow think it’ll do far better than that.

Sorry, mine are all cold. I can pop one in the microwave for you though.

Can’t have the peasants stage a successful revolt… nostr:note1ts0vfqv7e74at4qwpm3jm2h9ewvc5wfzkx72xp4th7h827jh86csazkr22