This a joke?
Since the start of 2H:
DXY: +2%
US 10Y yield: +11%
Oil: +24%
Generally speaking, in 2H 2023...
Dollar up.
Yields up.
Oil up.
What could possibly go wrong?
Aka, 🔥🦀🔥
Just keep stacking… nostr:note15j9qsc8ywj5z4kxts64m69vewmu26mvgga0zx3r4lq27v3zclr7sc5vlma
Some would try, certainly. But they would all eventually fail, as they wouldn’t be able to be back-stopped by the FDIC.
Banks will be much less relevant on a bitcoin standard, since people can simply be their own banks with Bitcoin in cold storage.
The gist of the problem is not banks, per se... but "fractional reserve" credit expansion by the United States (and other nation states) government.
Ever-increasing debt expansion beyond real underlying production growth is the root cause of monetary debasement over time.
Not "money printing," as is commonly stated.
The Federal Reserve is not the source of this credit expansion but, rather, the facilitator of ongoing Congressional misbehavior as the buyer of last resort of (unlimited) US government debt.
The great sleight of hand is the US government's ability to utilize the Federal Reserve to monetize it's own debt... covertly debasing the currency and stealing the purchasing power of its own citizens.
#Bitcoin fixes this.
Because I announced I was removing my blue check a month ago as a trial. I don’t want anyone to “discover” it and say/think I’m being duplicitous.
😂
After experimenting on the other bird app for a month, I’ve decided to go back to the blue check.
The unpaid (“lurker”) experience is suboptimal, by (Elon’s) design.
Just letting you know. Some will feel compelled to send me hate… please do so now. 😂
I piece US net liquidity together via the St. Louis Fed FRED data site. I get “poor man’s” global M2 data from a trading view template that someone sent me, plus I try to piece together more sophisticated work down by Michael Howell of Cross Border Capital.
My View of the Current Macro Data:
GDP growth: Slowing
Inflation: Choppy sideways (end of disinflation regime)
Unemployment: Early stages of acceleration?
High yield OAS: Stable
US net liquidity: Sideways (since late April 2022)
Worldwide liquidity: Sideways
Manufacturing: 10 straight months of contraction
Manufacturing new orders: 12 straight months of contraction
Services: Still mildly expansionary
Real interest rates: Rising
Yield curve: Bearish steepening
Until something changes, regarding risk assets...
Near-term (days/weeks) outlook: Crabby 🦀
Mid-term (months/quarters) outlook: Bearcrab 🐻🦀
(FOR INFOTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.)
You exchange your labor for money, which in turn represents your contributions to society.
Every time your money is inflated your contributions to society are devalued. You get less out of your life because you get less for your money.
#Bitcoin fixes this https://nostr.build/av/35492a531905e4995cf99acc846416aa0f8fd99daadad42d7f6369822e1f4374.mov
Well stated, Jack. 🤝
Why do I constantly drone on (and on) about “liquidity” and other related nonsense?
Few people understand that underlying liquidity decides the vector of an asset’s response to material news—good or bad.

