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Through Jesus Christ: Do justice. Love mercy. Walk humbly with your God. - Micah 6:8

Generally speaking, in 2H 2023...

Dollar up.

Yields up.

Oil up.

What could possibly go wrong?

Aka, 🔥🦀🔥

Just keep stacking… nostr:note15j9qsc8ywj5z4kxts64m69vewmu26mvgga0zx3r4lq27v3zclr7sc5vlma

Some would try, certainly. But they would all eventually fail, as they wouldn’t be able to be back-stopped by the FDIC.

Banks will be much less relevant on a bitcoin standard, since people can simply be their own banks with Bitcoin in cold storage.

The gist of the problem is not banks, per se... but "fractional reserve" credit expansion by the United States (and other nation states) government.

Ever-increasing debt expansion beyond real underlying production growth is the root cause of monetary debasement over time.

Not "money printing," as is commonly stated.

The Federal Reserve is not the source of this credit expansion but, rather, the facilitator of ongoing Congressional misbehavior as the buyer of last resort of (unlimited) US government debt.

The great sleight of hand is the US government's ability to utilize the Federal Reserve to monetize it's own debt... covertly debasing the currency and stealing the purchasing power of its own citizens.

#Bitcoin fixes this.

Because I announced I was removing my blue check a month ago as a trial. I don’t want anyone to “discover” it and say/think I’m being duplicitous.

After experimenting on the other bird app for a month, I’ve decided to go back to the blue check.

The unpaid (“lurker”) experience is suboptimal, by (Elon’s) design.

Just letting you know. Some will feel compelled to send me hate… please do so now. 😂

Replying to Avatar jimmysong

The Case for a Chain Split

The debate surrounding drivechains has been heating up, with proponents employing various tactics to garner support. This divisive issue echoes previous disputes in the Bitcoin community, such as the 2017 block size controversy. As such, we should consider what was then the definitive resolution: a chain split.

A significant portion of the Bitcoin community rejects drivechains, effectively blocking its implementation via a soft fork. Bitcoin's voluntary nature makes it resistant to hostile takeovers, despite claims that miners could force the change. Disagree with that last statement? Then let's put that to the test. We can resolve this posturing and propaganda by forking the code.

Here's how it would work: Code implementing drivechains would be released. Those who support the proposal can run this code. A transaction that goes against drivechain rules but adheres to pre-drivechain rules will trigger a chain split. Those running the drivechain software wouldn't be doing anything, but nodes that aren't can reject the drivechain chain by using the "invalidateblock" command. The result will be two distinct Bitcoins: one with drivechains and one without.

This approach was resolved the conflict we had in August 2017, when Bitcoin Cash split off from Bitcoin. Similarly, proponents and opponents of drivechains can either hold or sell their respective Bitcoins post-split. This would be a real-world test of control and game theory within the network.

I advocate for this split not just for potential profits, but also because it's a peaceful solution. It would let us see in real time how convicted the drivechain people are. Will drivechain miners support it if it means mining at a loss? A chain split would serve as a critical learning opportunity for the community, providing a clear answer to the ongoing debate. Ultimately, this will strengthen Bitcoin by showing the market how hard it is to change its properties.

So bring it on! Fork or shut up.

https://void.cat/d/SEbocwy3dabt6xJaaXM5Sk.mp3

I’m with Jimmy.

Just fork it. 🤝

I piece US net liquidity together via the St. Louis Fed FRED data site. I get “poor man’s” global M2 data from a trading view template that someone sent me, plus I try to piece together more sophisticated work down by Michael Howell of Cross Border Capital.

My View of the Current Macro Data:

GDP growth: Slowing

Inflation: Choppy sideways (end of disinflation regime)

Unemployment: Early stages of acceleration?

High yield OAS: Stable

US net liquidity: Sideways (since late April 2022)

Worldwide liquidity: Sideways

Manufacturing: 10 straight months of contraction

Manufacturing new orders: 12 straight months of contraction

Services: Still mildly expansionary

Real interest rates: Rising

Yield curve: Bearish steepening

Until something changes, regarding risk assets...

Near-term (days/weeks) outlook: Crabby 🦀

Mid-term (months/quarters) outlook: Bearcrab 🐻🦀

(FOR INFOTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.)

Why do I constantly drone on (and on) about “liquidity” and other related nonsense?

Few people understand that underlying liquidity decides the vector of an asset’s response to material news—good or bad.