Avatar
less
b7996c183e036df27802945b80bbdc8b0bf5971b6621a86bf3569c332117f07d
Through Jesus Christ: Do justice. Love mercy. Walk humbly with your God. - Micah 6:8

Basically my life over on the X app.

Keeping the moonboi influencers in check. 😂

“Cousin” Derek. 😂

Unrelated, is Alby not compatible with iOS? I tried fiddling with it the other day and it kept insisting that I use Chrome, which I don’t want to do.

Right?

My guess is that I’ll try really hard to do it, but will either fail spectacularly and/or no one will even know that I’m doing it. 😂

I don’t know.

I haven’t tried Nests out yet.

I’m sure I’ll need (more of) your technical support, Derek. 😂

It's a new VC marketing cleverism.

Replying to Avatar QW

We do nostr:npub14kw5ygpl6fyqagh9cnrytyaqyacg46lzkq42vz7hk8txdk49kzxs04j7y0 on Nests every Friday.

Nests functionality is better than Spaces but the browser extension hurdle is the main issue.

Browser extension signs in your npub and allows for the full functionality of nests. However, many users can’t seem to figure it out.

Alby is certainly the best as it brings your zapping wallet along with the functionality of chat and speaking. Verses NoStore, Nos2x and etc.

Summary, nests is bad ass. Little learning curve but it’s worth it in the long game.

You should def do it, but know we are early. 😃

Thanks for the good info. 🤝

Agreed. Some Bitcoiners don't like it--which I respect--and have told me so. 😂

I suspect, however, that there are many who would appreciate it and might actually join in on the discussion.

I'm not sure since I haven't tried it yet. Hopefully I'll have some time this week to try it out.

Instead of frequently doing/joining Twitter Spaces, I'm thinking of firing up #Nostr Nests going forward.

A good idea or nah?

Is there significant interest here on #nostr for macro, investing and (obviously) Bitcoin-related discussions?

I'd love to build and share ideas more on #nostr rather than on X.

Exponential risk asset and bitcoin price increases are always only temporary (unsustainable) and are primarily driven by robust liquidity flows and usage of leverage.

I expect these conditions to return in 4Q 2024 and throughout most of 2025.

**Obviously, this is just a guess and I could be wrong.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

The complicated aspect about the Social Security system in the United States is that it was falsely marketed.

It's called an "entitlement" because people pay into it and are supposed to get it back like a pension, regardless of whether they are rich or poor when they retire. And so the Baby Boomer generation views any cuts to their social security as a rugpull, basically. It's not insurance or charity; it's an entitlement.

However, although it was marketed as like an entitlement/pension, that's not how the math worked out in practice. And it's because population growth is slowing. It was based on ponzi math, assuming that every generation will be bigger than the one that came before it. But the Baby Boomer generation was huge.

In addition, when Social Security was created, the retirement age was set near the average life expectancy. Many people would not live long enough to collect it, and most would collect it for a handful of years. Only a small minority of outliers would work for like 40 years and then live off social security for like 20+ years. But then over the decades, life expectancy increased by like 15 years, so the default assumption is indeed that someone can work for 40 years and then have 20+ years of retirement, even though the amount they pay into it doesn't really mathematically cover that. It's not designed for that en masse.

And so Baby Boomers had like a 3.5 worker-to-retiree ratio to support in their peak earnings years, while Millennials will have more like a 2.5 worker-to-retiree ratio or less to deal with. Which means they get a worse deal. Many Millennials don't even think they'll get it at all, despite paying into it.

That breaks up the social contract and sets up inter-generational political conflict. "Fourth Turning" stuff.

It's a big reason why "defined benefit" plans are inherently unstable; they rely on being able to predict the future.

And it's also a big reason why, when speaking about deficits, nothing stops this train.

On the US social security ponzi scheme...

Literally, a ponzi scheme.

Great post, Lyn! ⚡

nostr:note10elqdmn0xf60x7mpyfp7w9zcctle69trhtr4dmvgddemjfrxhmtsyvrghz

My rough outline for the coming quarters (just a guess, obviously):

- Until Michael Jackson’s birthday: Astronauts are loading the ship.

- Once fully loaded, the engines alight.

- Sometime between Labor Day and Halloween 2024, the next bitcoin bull market begins in earnest.

- 2025 is likely to be lit.

🔥 🚀

I’m more conservative and use a 20% hurdle rate for the next twenty years… which, like I said, I believe to be too conservative for bitcoin.

But I like to be surprised to the upside.

It ain’t dead yet, but Dr. Bullcrab is on life support.

Make way for the emergence of Dr. Bull in the coming weeks and months.