nobody has a crystal ball but this is my current vibe:

12-18 more months of this bull cycle

fed will cut rates, we will likely rip this fall, will likely continue through 2026, intensity and price heavily dependent on macro

most new people will buy bitcoin penny stocks rather than real bitcoin because of x influencers

at some point most participants will believe this time is different, that we have entered a supercycle

people will then get greedy and overleverage themselves, take increasing risk

blow off top and and a great unwind

mstr will probably be fine, most bitcoin penny stocks rekt, a few may get caught in fraud, there will be a narrative that mstr is going to sell, which will drive panic

bottom of the next bear will likely settle over $100k

stay humble and stack sats

Tell me some useful information and I’ll zap you 615 sats.

I’ll determine if it’s useful or not lol 😂

BREAKING: #Bitcoin longs obliterated! Biggest wipeout since the crypto casino meltdowns (Celsius, 3AC, FTX). Leverage traders REKT. 🚨

Wear them out scare them out. Bigger players mean more big boy games and tactics. Not less.

AI vs Bitcoin

The AI hype has been non-stop for the last 2 years ever since ChatGPT came out with its 3.0 chat. Since then, there's been an insane amount of investment into AI tech from every direction. There are hundreds of startups, every tech giant has been making investments and companies in between have been putting a lot of money toward it as well. It's not a small amount, either, as the AI hardware costs make Bitcoin mining look like discount bargains.

Yet after two years, what have we to show for it? Maybe some faster image editing on newer phones? Slightly faster answers to questions you would normally ask Google? Some productivity increase among junior programmers? The investment was enormous, as can clearly be seen in NVIDIA's growth, but the results are pretty underwhelming. As with any hyped technology, the possibilities have run past the actual use.

One of the supposed benefits of fiat money is that capital accumulation is unnecessary to create real value. You can build roads, for example, without having to save up for it. What this misses are many obvious drawbacks, but one of them is that there has to be someone that evaluates whether something will create value and create the money out of thin air to fund the project. This is not just inherently centralizing, but also deeply political.

For whatever reason, AI passed this political test and got the blessing of the money printers, which, to a company that sells, shovels like NVIDIA has been great news. But the drawback is that there's bound to be at least *some* that don't pan out. Maybe some segment of the economy can't use AI profitably, for example. Yet the powers that be, mostly Cantillionaires, have decided that this is worthwhile and have poured insane amounts of money into this bet.

But much like hyped tech of the past, it's looking more and more likely that there's little profit to be made here. Yes, there's some useful things that can be made, but the costs are simply too high right now to justify spending that much. It's a luxury item that mostp people simply don't need, and hence don't want to pay for. AI has become an expensive solution looking for costly problems to solve.

This was always my analysis with another hyped tech: blockchain. It never really made any sense as the cost was too high for what was really just a distributed, very redundant but hard to upgrade database. It, too, couldn't find costly problems to solve, with the exception of one. That, of course being Bitcoin.

What differentiates Bitcoin from AI is that people *need* Bitcoin. It's its own killer app. AI is not so popular that people will pay for what it costs right now. And that means that most of the investment will be wasted. Like most hyped things in a fiat economy, it's doomed to have significant malinvestment.

A lot of people complain about Bitcoin businesses and how hard it is to make them profitable. In a sense, I get it. You want more people to have steady jobs and so on. But in another sense, I think this is the market speaking. You're not going to get paid from Bitcoiners easily and there's no flood of printed money looking for a place to go. At least there won't be once fiat money has run its course. Building a profitable company is hard and so few meet that mark, especially in a new segment as AI has shown.

So in that way, I'm encouraged, because the companies that survive in Bitcoin will have something truly worthwhile. By contrast, the companies that survive in AI will probably be the ones that get subsidized the longest.

For your contemplation... 👀

Green vertical lines marking September 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 (current) on the monthly #bitcoin chart.

This is the point of the cycle where the bears are seemingly victorious and increasingly insufferable.

This is your last chance to bail before upside volatility (likely) begins to take hold in earnest.

It is your last chance to fill the next four years of your financial life with serious regret.

IF YOU DON'T SELL YOUR BITCOIN IN SEPTEMBER 2024, YOU MAY BE FORCED TO RIDE THE ROCKET HIGHER OVER THE COMING 12-15 MONTHS. 🚀

You have been warned.

Buying cheap old stuff may save you sats initially, but then you might spend more in upkeep and maintenance.

Although September may have some weak data points, I have officially pivoted from Dr. Bullcrab to Dr. Bull.

Bullish macro and liquidity tailwinds are coming soon.

It won’t happen all at once… in fact, it will start slowly at first…

But it will happen.

I expect the next 14 months of #bitcoin price action to be generally lit.

#Halloween2025 is my next major target date.

(For infotainment purposes only.)

Man, remember when Australia imprisoned Novak Djokovic for not wanting to bend the knee? They literally put the world's healthiest human in a cage for "health reasons". Now it's obvious that he was on the right side of history, but we still haven't seen an apology. That, plus the whole "five eyes" thing doesn't make Australia too appetizing for me.

Just my 2 sats.

Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...).

Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic.

inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances.

Don't whale watch kids.

Instead of frequently doing/joining Twitter Spaces, I'm thinking of firing up #Nostr Nests going forward.

A good idea or nah?

Is there significant interest here on #nostr for macro, investing and (obviously) Bitcoin-related discussions?

I'd love to build and share ideas more on #nostr rather than on X.

I’ve played MTG off and on for 25 years. Mostly the physical cards though. I dabbled either Magic Online a while back but not Arena.

Lolol exactly

What is the timestamp for when it was discussed, for whatever little that might have been?