Also, FTX was a contributor but I believe the China ban on mining is what took the steam out of the market mid cycle. This is what caused the double peak and the much lower than expected top.
The mining cost being the anchor on the price, with mining hashrate nearly cutting in half the support for greater than $100k within the cycle was lost.
DCA = Dollar Cost Average (Out of Dollars)
BCA = Bitcoin Cost Average (Out of Bitcoin)
If what we want is a stable unit of account to facilitate true global adoption, then we need to work to reduce the highs and raise the lows of each cycle as those cause fear and suffering. I believe the cost to mine is the anchor on the market price so helping move the market price closer to the mining cost, most effective when it significantly deviates during the cycles, is my goal to achieve that stability.
I do not consider this trading Bitcoin even though it might be seen that way. To me it helping accelerate adoption of the best money ever created, while helping to accelerate the downfall of the FIAT system.
This chart appears to show diminishing returns, leading many to believe this cycle will see lower returns than 2021. It is my strong belief that this cycle will be much closer to 2017 than most realize. You are not ready for the next 9 months, you're also not ready for the following historic bear market that will see prices return to current values by Jan 2027.
The value per coin will rise to 3 - 6 times it's average mining cost before crashing 80%+, as it has done every cycle. Currently, the mining cost and the market price are nearly the same. I believe mining cost will rise to $150k - $200k while the market price will rise from $500k - $1000k over the next 6 - 10 months when peak FOMO is seen. I will personally start BCA some of my stack once we hit 3x the average mining cost, in preparation for the crash.
Don't day trade, you want more Bitcoin not more dollars. DCA when the price is around or below the cost to mine (majority of the time), but BCA when the price is significantly inflated compared to production cost which only really happens every 4th year since Bitcoin was created.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
This chart appears to show diminishing returns, leading many to believe this cycle will see lower returns than 2021. It is my strong belief that this cycle will be much closer to 2017 than most realize. You are not ready for the next 9 months, you're also not ready for the following historic bear market that will see prices return to current values by Jan 2027.
The value per coin will rise to 3 - 6 times it's average mining cost before crashing 80%+, as it has done every cycle. Currently, the mining cost and the market price are nearly the same. I believe mining cost will rise to $150k - $200k while the market price will rise from $500k - $1000k over the next 6 - 10 months when peak FOMO is seen. I will personally start BCA some of my stack once we hit 3x the average mining cost, in preparation for the crash.
Don't day trade, you want more Bitcoin not more dollars. DCA when the price is around or below the cost to mine (majority of the time), but BCA when the price is significantly inflated compared to production cost which only really happens every 4th year since Bitcoin was created.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
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For Satoshi so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten protocol, that whosoever participate in it should not perish in FIAT slavery, but have everlasting freedom.
Saw this post elsewhere and comments were claiming the image is AI generated. It looks real to me but who knows anymore.
My preferred cooking oils now:
Tallow
Lard
Extra Virgin Olive oil
Avocado Oil
Coconut Oil
Palm (fruit) oil
Hope everyone made it out okay. 🥲
Source? I don't find anything about this when searching.
note1jf5glprmf74pqxggc3f4wgyffhcakp794j2yl6u9zp00q2kfx6qs5j3klh
What is Bitcoin's base average
growth rate?
Part 2: Tracking Hashrate growth.
Between Nov 2018 and Nov 2024 the hashrate of the mining network grew from 46.5 Million TH to 702 Million TH. That's a growth of 15.1 times. This is only 6 years of growth.
Expressed as an annual growth rate, that's 57.2% or 1.572^X.
The hashrate is not a direct measure of value however, as the efficiency of mining hardware grows over time and reduces the relative value of each hash.
Continued in Part 3: Miner hashrate efficiency growth.
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I started collecting physical media for the first time in my life. Discs are surprisingly cheap nowadays and I now have a physical library to peruse with the best quality for each movie available and lots of included documentaries. I love it.
What is Bitcoin's base average growth rate?
Part 1: Tracking FIAT Debasement.
USD FIAT debasement occurs at a rate of 6.8% a year on average for at least the last 50 years. Since the supply grows at that rate, the amount of dollars representing everything must go up by 6.8% more than they would if the dollar supply was static. This is real inflation, the CPI is propaganda.
So Bitcoin must grow at a rate of 1.068^X (or more) JUST to measure the exponentially growing quantity of dollars over time and nothing else.
Continued in Part 2: Tracking Hashrate Growth.
Bitcoin turns the world frugal, patient, hopeful, peaceful, generous, and happy.
The real reason we want to spend Bitcoin directly, is because we want to help free the person we're paying. What we're offering is tokens of exponentially growing value, if the person we pay doesn't spend it all than the remainder will grow and help orange pill them.
We don't want to pay melting FIAT where the recipient is encouraged to spend everything, and where any remainder that's saved goes to fund endless wars.
We want to fund peace.
Do not fear progress, but fear those that do.
I had the thought last night that since Bitcoin's returns are going to be higher than anything else on earth, if the wealthy want to grow their wealth the fastest they just need to HODL and that's it.
Bitcoin absorbs the wealth of the 1% and prevents them from spending most of it because they don't want to lose the massive growth that Bitcoin offers.
Reducing their undeserved influence on the real world.
If they do spend their money then it's okay too, because it boosts the economies of wherever they spend. Spending Bitcoin it like seeding exponentially growing money trees in the budget of the recipient.
The wealthy may actually become sources of good in the world on a Bitcoin standard.
Free yourself, your family and your friends, from FIAT slavery.
Bitcoin changes everything, it frees everyone.
Good morning peeps. 😎🌅
May your day be as wonderful as you are.