I remember my high school government course asking how long would the EU exist, as every other united Europe experiment had failed.
Seems about the amount of time a rational “bear” might have expected:
A couple, almost few decades…
In fairness, their existence as a governing entity is somewhat imminently threatened.
They’re trying to stay viable…
Best way to engage with these new measures is to ignore them and aggressively lean into cash and lightning, etc.
Civil disobedience will work.
You can “believe” whatever you want to “believe.” Bitcoin won’t care. Bitcoin is going to set societal constraints by pricing money appropriately. Forcing trade-offs and making us consider opportunity costs. Bitcoin is the non-negotiable.
The current band for “beliefs” that turn into actions will tighten considerably. Pragmatism will return.
For example, debates will be about adding an extra stop to local public transport system vs. allowing tax cuts for local businesses. One will happen, the other will not. And that conversation will ebb and flow from election to election.
But the days of arguing for trillions for foreign intervention (Ukraine) or trillions for UBI, healthcare, state sponsored retirement; tax breaks for churches or government sponsored gender transition surgeries…those days are gone with bitcoin enforcing opportunity costs.
Bitcoin requires trade-offs and rewards productive work (not simply activity).
Portfolio managers are tasked with generating the highest risk-adjusted return. This fiduciary duty is literally codified to protect investors.
For its entire existence, holding bitcoin through an entire bitcoin cycle has the best risk-adjusted return of any asset, let alone asset class.
The implications are massive AND protected by law.
Managing a portfolio and not holding bitcoin? You’re in breach of your fiduciary duty to your clients.
4500 to go. These fiat finance bros playing the ETF game don’t even know what’s about to hit them…
Tick tock. nostr:note18rtw7l5fputtkkp5uk2r6y9w3lazr7vc5gw4djpyz5dmejdpsvpszmhgt5
For real, though. nostr:note1t8xrmz9chjgp56d6hzlyp6tqq833jz6dx6mmwx0ran95snjcmv2swfzufd
1 month away.
**GREEN** candle 😅
📈🔥🚀 nostr:note1rpcazz62acq5sjcpjdj4muu8f07h66g7kn444ru0047ah4ccyxysqh7wy9
While GBTC does have higher fees than the other ETFs, some large (bankrupt) holders [e.g. Genesis @ 25k btc] have opportunity for liquidity out of GBTC after its ETF conversion and recent court rulings.
The liquidation dynamic is probably responsible for the very high rate of outflows in the short term. But GBTC can’t continue to liquidate at even the moderate rate for very long. They’ll be out of bitcoins by the end of the year.
More than $34.5T with ~4500 blocks until 3.125 btc block reward
Imagine what would happen in the global markets if 800M+ bbls of oil hit the market for settlement in a single day.
That’s exactly what happened to bitcoin yesterday (relative to daily production terms).
nostr:note1nw0s0duf92e442dpgvl3u4d5mnqs5cvzd2zsg0xwztnffun68mwsq888na
4700 blocks to go. Tick tock. nostr:note12v6r9mcsauw462k3744kw0quqrwlhu03agqsag7qmv42zts4f6dsec4kfa
…4700 blocks to the halving…
Deflation is a drag. Especially noticeable when builders are building into an economy propped up by over 100 years of fiat-enabled overcapacity.
Unpopular opinion: most of today’s “technology” is unnecessary for human civilization and cooperation.
Every other altcoin’s utility should be delivered via a legal company structure and the tokens should be offered through existing securities’ laws, like equity.
Sure, we could say securities laws are inefficient and penalizing. Well … then change the law. Until you do, altcoins are securities. Centralized securities, just like equity offerings.
What is the equilibrium balance for GBTC? When will we see the equilibrium point?
Everyday, GBTC is hemorrhaging 2-3 days worth of bitcoin production while the ETFs collectively are netting 2-10 days of inflows.
In 1 month (April 19th), the halving doubles the relative impact vs. daily production rate of these capital flows: GBTC will be losing 4-6 days’ production while the ETFs are netting 4-20 days’ production of inflows.
If GBTC continues outflows at their same rate with another 380k bitcoin to go, they will be out of bitcoin by December ‘24.
Heating a home with S9s isn’t as efficient as heating with gas or even electric heat. Also, what % of the time does your home need heating? 75%? Less?
I understand what you’re saying…and it definitely impacts the math…but it still is seriously questionable for most people. Especially if you buy the ASICs vs. getting them near the bottom of the bear market for almost free.
Increasing hash rate and the difficulty adjustment are constantly squeezing miner profitability margins. And like any commodity production operation, once you buy the ASICs the decision to run them is a money forward one. So lowest cost of electricity “wins” in bitcoin mining. And retail electricity is not going to be the lowest cost of electricity.
^^this is correct. Buying bitcoin is more cost effective than mining it for most people.