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Here's the thing about making predictions about the price of bitcoin in dollars...

There's the numerator (bitcoin) which somewhat steadily continues to appreciate on an adoption curve - ups and downs for sure as paper handed new people buy and sell with the wind, traders trade with leverage, and OGs support families and start companies and whatnot, but mostly up and to the right and people across the globe become educated about bitcoin. Open source tools and infrastructure continue to improve exponentially and once you understand bitcoin there is generally no going back.

But then there's the denominator (USD) which wildly swings all fucking over the place - reacting to global macro forces, political ambitions and failures, large scale theft through taxation & money printing, misallocation of capital designed to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich, capital controls, and many other fiat shenanigans. To be clear, I'm not talking about the DXY or any other "measure" of USD strength or weakness, I'm talking about societal volatility that only shows up in actual free markets - and bitcoin is probably the freest market in the world.

So if you want to speculate on the future BTCUSD pair, you have to be informed about all of that stuff... numerator and denominator.

Why risk your Bitcoin with exchanges?

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