Ethereum is NOT a protocol, you know things like TCP/IP and HTTP. The crypto world is in a mass psychosis. VC funds have blossomed on the thesis that L1s are the “protocols” for finance.
No, these are language and compute environments.
ETH was the first language to gain popularity for DeFi apps. But it was created before they knew what DeFI needs were.
We have seen this before… COBOL, Fortran, Lisp, C, JS, Rust.
Every language builds from learnings from the past and upon the needs of new domains. Old languages continue to be used, but many wane, new languages gain adoption.
ETH’s Solidity is COBOL.
To be clear:
- A protocol is a standard for messaging.
- A language is a standard for compute.
The former has longer and stronger network effects.
Bitcoin is more of the former while ETH is more of the latter.
There will be a ongoing market for better decentralised compute networks. Like COBOL it’s quite unlikely Solidity will be what we build DeFi apps on in say 20 years.
Can’t do it. There’s no entities data on Ethereum, only available on BTC.
#[0] - I think the holy grail UX to be close to Twitter level of editing is access to screen capture to clipboard and to paste image into a post; on desktop app. Upload from Photos app, while a good jump, doesn’t quite do it.
A composite of 17 on-chain and technical signals. They try to capture all aspects of the network including mining, valuation, investor hodl, supply in profit, destruction (experience associated with who is selling) and price action.
FSI showing first signs of bottoming, BTCUSD up to now has been consolidating sideways against headwinds of FSI mean reverting (cooling off from overheated). Should see some fundamental tailwinds hear on in.
Also worth noting the volatility compression we have seen in the 4 weeks of sideways suggests the expected move should be decently big (much bigger than the recent 28k -> 30k move).
Note: Short timeframe forecasts has lower reliability than longer term macro readings.
This post only goes out to Nostr (not Twitter).
Pretty sure he's gonna lose that bet, but will win on publicity.
Hyperinflation happens on single nation state economies. Very hard to do it on a global reserve currency, the world economy has too much inertia to move that quick.
FSI update:
It's mean reverted back from extremely overheated preventing further upward momentum. (I'm waiting for it to bottom before going long)
Taking a guess at one more week before bullishness.
Decent liquidity gap to $42k. April should be an interesting month to watch.
So you’re saying the crocodile is Gary Gensler and the fisherman is SBF.
It’s more that it’s hard to rally much until the fundamentals cool down.
Idea: write a ChatGPT API bot that inputs the most topical posts on Twitter across various interest verticals and seeds conversations on Nostr.
Nostr needs more than Bitcoiners talking.
FSI update:
Still strongly in a mean reversion phase and a very rare bearish divergence. Interpretation is that a few weeks of time is needed before fundamental powered bullish action can engage.
This is another Nostr post not going out on Twitter. Feel free to tell Twitter.
Been hanging with normies IRL this month and whenever I can, I ask whether they know what a CBDC is, almost always they have never heard of the term unless they have an anti-vax stance or are versed in Bitcoin.
Mainstream media has long lost its value, just a net negative spewing propaganda.
The priority right now is to get capitalisation to a level where separation of money and state can happen. Till then buy and hodl even if it concentrates coins is debatably a good act. After $1m per coin it’ll be a reserve currency and you can sell it; it’ll be on the denominator of pricing goods and services, and won’t impact capitalisation.
In this scenario I’m assuming Block will be doing impactful work with its gains rather than seeking world domination.
Fundamental Strength Indicator (tracking 17 on-chain and technical indicators) now in the overheated zone. It's rare, second time since 2021.
Means we are in for a cool down period of a few weeks, doesn't mean things dump, means upward momentum is limited.
Mean reversion forces are stronger than momentum here.
If people started voting with feet a 1000 Lichtensteins would flourish to meet them.
The most democratic thing a citizen can do is to vote with your feet and be a global citizen.
Competition speaks louder than protests.
People think CBDCs are a competing monetary network to #Bitcoin, but even for CBDCs, they are backed by sovereign wealth and surplus in an economy, and the day is fast coming where that surplus is parked into BTC.
The Bitcoin network or nation state CBDC networks; either way BTC continues to grow.