EU’s Fiat Gambit: Leveraging Geopolitical Chaos to Mask Economic Decay
The political shift in the White House reveals that the world is moving toward a radical economic bifurcation. One side, led by the United States, is relying more and more on free market forces while cutting government spending (think of Argentina), while the other side is falling back on old-fashioned recipes of socialism, state interventionism and the rotten recipe book of Keynesian magic which will only lead them deeper into the unavoidable debt trap as it is an illusion to be able to control interest rates without consequences like massive inflation and currency debasement.
A glance at the history books of the 20th century already tells us the outcome of this test of strength: decentralized systems that entrust decision-making powers to the individual will always carry off the laurels of the victor. They are simply channelling scarce ressources like energy better than other systems. Without anticipating the point I would like to make: it will not be the Europeans who rely more than ever on centralization and the consolidation of power in Brussels who will be receiving economic laurel.
The European Union is betting big these days, hijacking the U.S. pullback from the Ukrainian battle field and monetizing Russia-stoked fears politically to roll out a mammoth €800 billion fiat credit blitz, this time as the South has been sucked dry over the years led by german debt issue, to dodge its spiraling growth crisis and keep rolling the debt over space and time. We all know the keynesian logic: all economic misery has its roots in a lack of demand which certainly the all-knowing government will fill up with hyper intelligent government spending programs.
What we are witnessing here is a reckless dive into the Keynesian debt pit. Meanwhile recession signals scream loud: February 2025’s composite PMI sits at a dismal 48.9, stuck below the neutral measurment of 50 for months. Industry and the construction sector in particular are at rock bottom and show hardly any signs of revitalization, even if the business cycle is picking up a little speed globally. Industrial output is tanking with a 0.6% monthly slide in January,now with a PMI at 47.6 deep in recessionary territory hammered by high energy prices and supply woes. Deficits are swelling to 4% of GDP in 2025, with debt-to-GDP nearing 90% by 2026 (point of no return usually can be find at around 80%), per the European Commission. Productivity’s a ghost and it stays flat for the time being.
Once again, it was the bond market that reacted quickly to the geopolitical impact of Germany's gigantic debt program, which is now trying to close the gap with the other European debtor countries. Bond markets pounced on Germany’s debt reveal: 10-year yields leapt 40 basis points within two days after the announcement of the new german debt fiesta - Germany’s from 2.4% to 2.8%, Italy’s from 3.6% to 4.0%, France’s from 3.1% to 3.5%- defying the ECB’s 0.25-point rate cut.
That €800 billion tab that follows step by step the debt structure proposed by ex ECB president Mario Draghi last year to give the dead Eurozone a last stroke. The program follows Draghi's proposal like a little dog follows its drunken owner. It comes with €22.4 billion in annual interest, a chokehold on a wobbly economy. Worse, it’s a catalyst for centralization. Subsidies soared 15% last year, per EU data, propping up dying industries, while regulations - like new green and digital mandates - pile on €22 billion in yearly costs, per the European Chamber of Commerce, suffocating innovation.
What we are experiencing here in Europe is the path to common debt, the suspension of the last Maastricht rules which, looking back today, we can say was probably the plan of the fiat centralists from the very beginning, since cheap credit is the drug they are all addicted to since cheap credit is the drug they are all addicted to and with which they are getting the population drunk. Every election cycle is always a gift-giving contest, the presentation of false hopes and simulation games, the creation of false security and prosperity, in the forge of the central banks' printing presses, brought into the world by politicians whose distance from economic reality has become maximum.
But if there is one thing the Europeans understand, it is how to turn self-created crises into an advantage for the centralized body of power in brussels. In their understanding of economics, prosperity comes from well-organized central planning, which implies communal debt, or more simply, using Germany's creditworthiness to force more credit on others. We can therefore expect the imminent introduction of Eurobonds to further expand the nonsensical credit programs of the past decades and accelerate the massive capital shortfall, which will further inhibit productivity, especially in the eurozone. In this way, Europe will not be able to translate technological progress into active production and prosperity.
Debt slaves nations to bond markets, demanding risk premiums as trust fades and puts the onus on taxpayers to divert ever larger portions of productive capital into channels into which it seeps away without bringing further progress. Germany’s debt brake is toast (it has always been an illusion, since political actions, even when written into constitutions, are reversible at any time) and the CDU’s cynical push through a defunct Bundestag reeks of desperation.
Remember: the CDU is the party that was still pretending to have Christian-conservative values during the Merkel era, while executing the green-socialist agenda of decomposition in a way that even the heirs of the GDR SED and their green socialist brothers and sisters in the West did not dare to dream of.
The whole german economy was built as a charade within a fog of narratives which over the past two decades has essentially been a kind of euro mercantilism: a domestically low-wage sector coupled with a currency that was undervalued by 30 to 40% for the German economy. Massive trade surpluses (the narrative of world export champion Germany) ensured booming foreign credit business and an enormous dependence of the entire eurozone on the creditworthiness of the German economy. At the end of the past few years, the Brussels-Berlin policy, since the attack on the nuclear industry such as the automotive industry and the phasing out of nuclear power, has affected the German economy to such an extent that the spectre of recession in the form of Germany's sinking lead is now haunting the whole of Europe.
In what creative german politicians call “Special funds” (which is officially unconstitutional) they're hiding their reckless spending now, sticking taxpayers with the bill. This is centralized control masquerading as rescue—industry fades, productivity dies, and the crash of the hole economic bubble nears.
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