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Janis
da761b4153a1844dc03ad505fc08d125d4bb054d7cf4a4fe06de3df77a45fd85
I don’t always agree with everything I say

How does Claude Code compare with Cursor Composer in agent mode when both are using the same model? (Claude-3.7-sonnet-thinking)

I’ve been using it with Composer, and, yeah, mind-blowing. I wouldn’t actually expect the agent piping itself be much different?

Also, it’s very interesting to see how Composer usability changes when you switch between models. Claude 3.7 thinking it’s magic, with OpenAI models it’s… Not that useful, let’s say

Probably nothing 👀

Here are my two € cents.

The market is pricing in the scenario of “a protectionist USA in a multi-polar world”. In this scenario USA is overvalued, and Europe is undervalued.

Let me elaborate. The US vs the rest trade war is seen here as something that will primarily hurt the US. Because the rest will increase trade among themselves to offset trade lost with the US, while in the US not only imports will become pricier, but internal products as well due to the wrecking ball being put to the North American supply chains. Eventually this might lead to some US sectors becoming stronger, but I don’t think the market believes that this eventually is anywhere near now.

The second factor is US tech stocks. That’s what, 40% of SP500, which is 80% of the US economy, right? While not affected by tariffs, these are affected by the general loss of trust of the US here (won’t find this in US news outlets, but do take a look at BBC). First, there’s the issue of Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board. There is a scenario in which it’s weakened enough that using US clouds becomes illegal in the EU due to the lack of alignment with EU data privacy rules. But also, nobody is using the Alibaba cloud here, because it’s Chinese. There is a timeline on which the Europe - US relationship becomes adversarial enough where AWS or Google Cloud becomes a similar no-no as Alibaba.

And then there’s the elephant in the room that is security. From this side of the pond it looks like Putin is being appeased, and he might get away with what he has done to Ukraine. We also know that his long term goal (and wet dream) for decades has been to undermine NATO. Preferably see it fall apart. Spooks from both Ukraine and Denmark have warned that Russia is preparing a (likely limited) attack on a NATO country as soon as this year. Likely one of the Baltics (where I’m currently writing from). The rationale being that IF the US - Europe relationship becomes strained enough, this would be a good moment to challenge NATO on article 5. If the US fails to react, NATO is effectively dead. Which is, I repeat myself here, an openly stated long-term goal of Russia.

You probably see how this relates to the economy. Faced with this existential threat, the EU voted for an 800 billion defence spending package. But more importantly, relaxed the EU budget rules in a way that defence spending doesn’t count towards the deficit limit that EU countries have (imagine that, we actually have a working deficit limit). And, given the last week’s antics, we are going to try and spend as little as possible of it buying American. Because America is not being seen as a trustworthy and dependable defence partner anymore. Sadly.

So, with a 500 million population, and a total economy slightly smaller than that of the US, Europe almost seems forced to grow to quickly fill in the defence and tech void that an isolationist America is leaving behind.

What does all of it mean to Bitcoin?

Bearish in the short to mid term because it’s still correlated to the stock market. Especially the US stock market. Very bullish in mid to long term. Lower DXY, and all that defence spending is bound to push the global M2 much higher.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

A lot of investors would benefit from reading Stephen Mirran's November 2024 report on restructuring global trade:

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

He is the economist that Trump nominated to chair his Council of Economic Advisors. In that report, Mirran discusses the persistent US trade deficits, their causes, and overall it aligns quite closely with what I wrote in Chapter 13 of Broken Money: Heavy is the Head that Wears the Crown.

Mirran also goes into potential solutions for it, including the risks of performing those potential solutions. Basically, behind all the headline driven stuff, that's the intellectual version of this administration's playbook. Like, the steelman argument for what they're trying to do in theory.

Here's his executive summary:

"The desire to reform the global trading system and put American industry on fairer ground vis-à-vis the rest of the world has been a consistent theme for President Trump for decades. We may be on the cusp of generational change in the international trade and financial systems.

The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella, as the manufacturing and tradeable sectors bear the brunt of the costs.

In this essay I attempt to catalogue some of the available tools for reshaping these systems, the tradeoffs that accompany the use of those tools, and policy options for minimizing side effects. This is not policy advocacy, but an attempt to understand the financial market consequences of potential significant changes in trade or financial policy.

Tariffs provide revenue, and if offset by currency adjustments, present minimal inflationary or otherwise adverse side effects, consistent with the experience in 2018-2019. While currency offset can inhibit adjustments to trade flows, it suggests that tariffs are ultimately financed by the tariffed nation, whose real purchasing power and wealth decline, and that the revenue raised improves burden sharing for reserve asset provision. Tariffs will likely be implemented in a manner deeply intertwined with national security concerns, and I discuss a variety of possible implementation schemes. I also discuss optimal tariff rates in the context of the rest of the U.S. taxation system.

Currency policy aimed at correcting the undervaluation of other nations’ currencies brings an entirely different set of tradeoffs and potential implications. Historically, the United States has pursued multilateral approaches to currency adjustments. While many analysts believe there are no tools available to unilaterally address currency misvaluation, that is not true. I describe some potential avenues for both multilateral and unilateral currency adjustment strategies, as well as means of mitigating unwanted side effects.

Finally, I discuss a variety of financial market consequences of these policy tools, and possible sequencing."

So… That’s basically trying to shake the crown off. Isn’t it? With everything that entails.

Helping, not helping, doesn’t matter. The writing is on the wall, America doesn’t have anyone’s back anymore. The sooner everyone involved accepts this, and adjusts accordingly, the better.

I only mute/block obvious spam. Never people I merely vehemently disagree with. I’m not Nostr-ing to recreate an echo chamber.

Wait for enough winning to happen, then become a dissident to not let the dipshits ruin it. Like riding a bike without chicken strips.

I knew Trump wasn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. But I’m still surprised at the level of gullibility he’s managing to exhibit.

I agree with you here mostly. Except the defeatist conclusion. It does take an authoritarian leader to attack a neighbouring country. If you guys had a functioning democracy with half-decent checks and balances, you’d never have attacked Ukraine. Even if a non-negligible part of the population have imperialistic ambitions, it’s near impossible to go through with them in that situation.

And what people think in the territories of interest outside of the “mother-nation” doesn’t matter in either scenario.

In case the “mother-nation” is run by a strongman who has decided (with support from a part of his population, yes) that some outside territory “rightfully belongs” to them, it doesn’t matter what people think in the territory in question. Cases in point - Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Gaza (Israel).

In case the “mother-nation” is run democratically, and there is some outside territory where a significant part of the population would like to join with the “mother-nation”, it doesn’t matter. The democratic country won’t go imperialist. Cases in point Südtirol (Austria), Åland Islands (Sweden), Northern Ireland (Ireland).

Anyway, changing the subject a bit. Any good straight-talking Russian ultra-patriotic bloggers left on Telegram? Strelkov got jailed, sends a letter now and then that his wife posts. Alksnis died.

Replying to Avatar Janis

But that doesn’t cut it. If you say that CIA instigated maidan, it must mean there was a phone call where someone with a thick American accent called Putin, and said something along the lines of:

“Hey Vlad, we have a situation. We really want to get rid of Poroshenko, and this is a perfect moment to do this, he just signed an EU Association agreement. So can you call him “on the carpet”, and explain the consequences such that he’d nix it, and we have a pretext for a nice little revolution there.”

That’s some 4D chess there.

I think it’s much simpler. The Ozero ОПГ just can’t have anything resembling rule of law or actual democracy anywhere near their “sphere of influence”, especially in a culturally close nation like Ukraine, lest Russians get any ideas. And those pesky EU people are known to push these things wherever their dirty paws touch. So in gets called Poroshenko, gets a briefing, nixes the EU Association agreement, people understandably get mad about this, put their CIA-sponsored cooking pots on their heads, and overthrow the dipshit stooge.

In comes Putin, chooses plan C “annexation of Crimea” to punish Ukrainians for their disobedience (but also, can’t have the Sevastopol base on Western-aligned land). And… This is likely where it was supposed to end, for time being at least.

But no, fucking Strelkov gets a divine vision of how he can become saint Igorj the Breaker of Chains, and ‘free’ ‘Novorossiya’ from those pesky Ukrainians, takes initiative, and goes for Slovyansk. Everyone else then plays along, hey, maybe it does work out.

And the thing is, none of this actually matters. Because Russia recognised Ukrainian independence in 1991 with the borders that the Soviet republic had. There’s a reason why Südtirol is still Italy, and they don’t even discuss it. Because doing so opens the kind of Pandora’s box that we’re witnessing wide open for three years now.

Sorry, I mixed up the chocolate man with Yanukovich.

But that doesn’t cut it. If you say that CIA instigated maidan, it must mean there was a phone call where someone with a thick American accent called Putin, and said something along the lines of:

“Hey Vlad, we have a situation. We really want to get rid of Poroshenko, and this is a perfect moment to do this, he just signed an EU Association agreement. So can you call him “on the carpet”, and explain the consequences such that he’d nix it, and we have a pretext for a nice little revolution there.”

That’s some 4D chess there.

I think it’s much simpler. The Ozero ОПГ just can’t have anything resembling rule of law or actual democracy anywhere near their “sphere of influence”, especially in a culturally close nation like Ukraine, lest Russians get any ideas. And those pesky EU people are known to push these things wherever their dirty paws touch. So in gets called Poroshenko, gets a briefing, nixes the EU Association agreement, people understandably get mad about this, put their CIA-sponsored cooking pots on their heads, and overthrow the dipshit stooge.

In comes Putin, chooses plan C “annexation of Crimea” to punish Ukrainians for their disobedience (but also, can’t have the Sevastopol base on Western-aligned land). And… This is likely where it was supposed to end, for time being at least.

But no, fucking Strelkov gets a divine vision of how he can become saint Igorj the Breaker of Chains, and ‘free’ ‘Novorossiya’ from those pesky Ukrainians, takes initiative, and goes for Slovyansk. Everyone else then plays along, hey, maybe it does work out.

And the thing is, none of this actually matters. Because Russia recognised Ukrainian independence in 1991 with the borders that the Soviet republic had. There’s a reason why Südtirol is still Italy, and they don’t even discuss it. Because doing so opens the kind of Pandora’s box that we’re witnessing wide open for three years now.

Putin must be a CIA stooge then. Wasn’t it him who forced Poroshenko to nix the EU Association agreement and brought people onto the streets?

Sure, CIA likely got involved to perpetuate maidan. But if my government turned out to be Putin-****suckers, I wouldn’t particularly care about who pays for the tea.

Btw, is CIA paying for Georgians to go to streets right as we speak too?

Are they in the room with us right now?