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The weird makes it fun. I haven’t changed my mind.

Replying to Avatar node

Fuck it I’m in

I think the causal arrow goes the other way. Fed pivots because the economy is already fucked. Re: FOMC meeting Wednesday they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. They’re always reactionary and the idea they’d do anything like a “soft landing” they’ve been talking about for 2 years is stupid. They were always going to go too far and this time they’re so painted in a corner this is going to whipsaw and wreck a ton of jobs AND spike inflation when they’re still above target. They’re so fucked.

FOMC has big time egg on their face today. They’re about to crater the economy AND turn the printers on and drive inflation up.

Fed === fucked.

Everyone for gun control says “That can’t happen here. That’s other places.” Yeeeeeaaaaaa sure buddy. We’re no different from anyone else. If it can happen elsewhere it can happen here.

I’ve got one if you feel like using it. Obligatory “dont trust me” and only use it for small stuff. 🫡

https://lnbits.dvdt.dev/cashu/api/v1/P5HA2CBPKGnaqLuKWYo4VA

Yea this is the only thing that matters IMO

Mt Gox dist, US gov moving Silk Road coins, etc is all just noise. We’ll hold in the 58k-70k range until the fed starts cutting. I’m curious about Wednesday. I don’t expect a cut until Sept at the earliest. I think if JP is even the slightest bit dovish though the market might start pricing in a cut.

I’m still not counting out no cuts this year. They’re in a tight spot between the interest burden and cratering the economy. Fiscal dominance causes more debasement that they don’t get any return on (like infrastructure spending) and is politically unpopular. Rate cuts send a strong signal to the market that they’ve called uncle and they’re going to inflate the debt away === bonds are fucked.

It’s going to be a wild ride. Politicians trying to plant flags on Bitcoin now too? This cycle might be life changing for a lot of people who’ve been accumulating for any time longer than this decade.