🔥 Most people chasing FIRE are aiming for a number 🔥
$1M. $2M. $5M.
But what if the target is wrong?
Here’s why your share of 21 million BTC matters more than your net worth:
🧵👇
The FIRE formula:
→ Figure out your annual expenses
→ Multiply by 25
→ Invest in index funds
→ Retire when you hit the number
It works…if the system keeps working.
⚠️
But the dollar is a moving target:
💸 Debased
🧾 Taxed
⚖️ Politicized
🤝 Dependent on trust
Your “freedom number” floats in a system that’s leaking value.
Bitcoin offers something different:
🔒 Fixed supply
⚙️ Predictable issuance
⛓️ No middlemen
🧠 Just math and time
No bailouts.
No printing.
No permission needed.
Reframe:
Your financial independence isn’t just about how many dollars you have.
It’s about how much of the 21 million you’ve secured.
That’s your position in the next system.
📊
📈 Index funds grow.
🏠 Real estate appreciates.
But both expand:
New shares. New homes. New taxes. New rules.
🟠 Bitcoin doesn’t expand. It concentrates.
Every sat increases your share of the pie.
FIRE folks love tracking progress:
🧮 Net worth
📉 Expenses
📆 Time to FI
Try this one:
What % of the 21 million do I own?
It’s simple. Scarce. Measurable.
And it can’t be inflated.
The earlier you claim your share, the better. ⏳
You don’t need to beat inflation.
You need to exit it. 🚪
Stacking bitcoin = opting out.
FIRE says:
“Buy freedom with money.” 💵
I say:
“You need freedom money!” ₿
Start measuring wealth in sats, not dollars.
You might be closer to freedom than you think.
Your true wealth is your share of a system that can’t be printed, frozen, or inflated away.
Secure your slice of the 21 million.
Then go live free.
🗝️✨
If this thread clicked for you, you’ll love my newsletter: FIRE BTC.
Each week I explore how bitcoin can accelerate financial independence… without permission, inflation, or fragile systems.
Subscribe free: firebtc.substack.com
🧵 How to make smarter money (and life) decisions using a poker player’s mindset:
Most people chase certainty. But in the real world, especially on the road to financial independence, you’ll never have it.
That’s where Expected Value Thinking comes in.
Let’s break it down: 👇
🎲 Life is a series of bets.
Every decision (buy or rent, save or splurge, hold or sell) is a bet on an uncertain future.
Expected Value Analysis (EVA) gives you a framework to make the best bets, even when outcomes are unpredictable.
🃏 The poker analogy:
Say you’re holding a 20% chance of winning a $600 pot, and you need to call a $100 bet.
Your EV: (0.2 × $600) + (0.8 × -$100) = + $40
You’ll probably lose the hand… but if you keep making this bet, you come out ahead over time.
🚀 Bitcoin is the most asymmetric trade on the planet.
If you think there’s even a 25% chance BTC hits $1M from $100k today, then a $1k investment has an EV of $2,500.
In poker terms: you’re buying $2.50 for every $1.
That’s a bet worth repeating.
⚖️ FIRE (and life) is all about tradeoffs, and EVA helps you weigh them.
Rent vs. buy? Take a sabbatical? Start a business?
Running the EV forces you to factor in risk, reward, and flexibility, giving you clarity in uncertain decisions.
🔁 Process > outcome.
Don’t judge decisions by whether they worked out.
Judge them by whether they were smart bets.
EVA helps you make consistently high-EV choices.
Over time, those add up to financial freedom.
📈 Want to level up your decision-making?
I wrote about using Expected Value Thinking to strengthen your FIRE + bitcoin plan.
Check out the full post here, and subscribe if you dig it:
💥 UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH 💥
Fiat money was needed and beneficial.
Gold was fair, scarce, and trusted. But it was slow and couldn’t keep pace with a rapidly globalizing world.
Fiat fixed gold’s speed problem, but at the cost of fairness. It let governments print at will, fueled debt bubbles, and hollowed out trust.
Fiat was never the endgame, but it was a much-needed bridge from old sound money to new sound money.
Bitcoin is where we go next: digital, scarce, global, and decentralized. It delivers gold’s discipline with fiat’s speed, leaving behind the middlemen, inflation, or political control.
It’s time to cross the bridge.
FIRE BTC issue 28 just dropped.
I break down how gold, fiat, and bitcoin each shaped the global system — and why bitcoin completes the arc.
Read the full post → https://firebtc.substack.com/p/the-bridge-we-had-to-cross
Saving feels like a scam.
You did everything right.
Worked hard. Spent less. Saved more.
And you’re still falling behind.
It’s not your fault. The system is rigged.
The dollar is built to lose value. That’s why saving doesn’t work. Wages lag. Costs rise. And the “safe” path just delays your collapse.
You’re not undisciplined. You’re saving in a broken system.
New FIRE BTC just dropped:
💸 Why saving feels like a scam
🧱 Why bitcoin fixes the foundation
🔥 How to opt out before it’s too late
Trump has turned up the heat on global trade, but he's playing with 🔥!
Eliminating America's trade deficit sounds good, until it risks triggering a global dollar shortage.
The Triffin Dilemma isn't theory anymore.
Bitcoiners, pay attention.
I spoke to a group of billion-dollar family offices last week about bitcoin.
They are almost 0% allocated right now.
Get the inside scoop on these high-powered investors in my latest newsletter issue 👇
Even if you take an initial 1% allocation to bitcoin, here's what most likely will happen:
Your 1% grows to 3%
AND
You start to understand bitcoin better
THEN
Your 3% grows to 5%
AND
You add an add'l 5% bc you understand bitcoin better
Allocate ➡️ Understand ➡️ Growth 🔁
My buddy has $270,000 sitting in a bank account earning 0.00%. 😱
He thinks he's being safe. I told him he’s guaranteed to lose.
FIRE BTC Issue 23: "Cash is Trash" is live.
👇 Here's what I'd do instead:
firebtc.substack.com/p/cash-is-trash
My dad just reminded me of this card I gave him as a kid. Classic!
Gold bugs are typically loud about bitcoin's lack of intrinsic value. Gold is used in jewelry and electronics, among other goods in the real world. And yet gold’s market value exceeds its industrial use value many times over.
What gives?
I explore the myth of "intrinsic value" in the latest issue of FIRE BTC 👇
An AI bot that automatically extracts a readable and usable recipe from the SEO-optimized hellscape of a normal recipe webpage.
A buddy of mine showed me yesterday that he has $270,000 sitting in cash in an account that pays 0% interest.
I told him that's crazy.
He asked what I would do with it.
I told him by the end of Monday, I would have $270k less cash and $270k more bitcoin.
We are not the same.
🌯 Financing a $12 burrito 🌯
Pay $1 per month for a year and save the unpaid dollars at @River earning 3.8% paid in BTC over the course of the year.
You earn ~$0.25 of BTC which then grows at 20%+ annually.
In 21 years, your burrito is free.
You're welcome.
The market doesn't yet understand the significance of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The SBR signals that the U.S. views bitcoin not just as a financial asset but as a geopolitical tool to defend its hegemony.
Nation-states watching the U.S. accumulate bitcoin will likely feel pressure to secure their own reserves, especially resource-rich or politically isolated countries that need alternatives to the U.S. dollar system. Some have already started.
This will accelerate a global bitcoin accumulation race, and the market is not even close to bullish enough.
888,888 blocks and no signs of stopping.
There is no top.
Property taxes are so insidious.
Other people print money, causing the nominal value of your house to increase.
Property taxes are assessed on the current value of your home, so as the property value rises, so does your tax bill.
But that extra home value is not liquid and therefore not accessible to pay the increased tax burden.
If the property tax rises too much, some people may need to take on debt or even sell the property to pay it.
This should not stand in any civilized society.
