It’s literally the “they don’t know”meme playing out on repeat
Who we missing?
New lows coming for this. 0.010 - 0.015 inbound soon. Tradfi is a shitcoin
nostr:npub1gdu7w6l6w65qhrdeaf6eyywepwe7v7ezqtugsrxy7hl7ypjsvxksd76nak
Next 10 years going to be lit
We tried to tell them oh well
So good
This legit going to orange pill someone when nothing else did before and I have so many mixed feelings about that lol
Taleb is back on the nice list for this one lol
I've done some basic modelling on MSTR and how a perpetual debt+equity strategy would impact share price and value relative to BTC
It's kind of crazy actually -- BTC/Share and the Share Price to BTC price ratio is accretive all the way out the curve. And there seems to be the reflexive component that performance increases with mNAV and value accrues even with declining mNAV due to the fact that the entire stack gets marked up faster than they can issue new debt or equity.
I'd have to spend a lot more time modelling but there doesn't appear to be a static equilibrium until
a) MSTR owns all the Bitcoin and is a $2 Quadrillion Market Cap
b) MSTR goes to $0
It also validates his current approach -- get as big of a head start as possible and then buy regularly in order to reduce volatility risk.
And since the dollars being generated to add to his stack are often freshly created by some bank credit desk, this is a true speculative attack. If the US government or other institutions wish to act, they probably have about 4-8 years before this playbook has literally cornered the market, in which case the only risk becomes forced liquidation or seizure.
I'm curious what Saylor has up his sleave to guard against seizure risk. He could be unwittingly be building the USG's reserve of 20% of BTC supply.
On Twitter everyone would be scrambling to tell you your wife is hot
#NostrIsWholesome
Listen to some of Dave Collums rants on valuation. It’s pretty wild that real earnings yields at current levels are like 1-2%. The insanity will unravel into hard money at some point. Very real chance Trump would let it unravel soon so he can blame it on previous admin
All things considered, $450-$600k by EOY 2025 would be in line with the 2020-2021 cycle for price action.
If we compare to 2016-2017 cycle, which was indeed a bigger step function for Bitcoin adoption and macro narrative, the cone of uncertainty blows out to $550k - $1.75M.
Is 2025 a step function? If nation states plant their flag, then yes, it probably is. Regardless, $500k is a decent base case. Don't listen to tradfi dipshits and sell at $200-$250k.
The S&P was -44% against BTC in 2024. There's a decent chance it will be negative against the DOLLAR in 2025. Real estate is a house of cards and maintenance costs are hyperinflating. There's no alternative for storing wealth.
nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx get a load of this shit
Agreed. That’s Booths take too but I tried to pin that to USD if it plays out in an accelerated fashion which many signs point to
Sir this is called an engagement post
Did Odell make that prediction ? He said no predictions this cycle lol nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx
He implied 2m would be a normal cycle and that this cycle might be amplified
I think way higher then some dips
People always anchor in recent price action. So going to $2m then dipping to $750k you’ll probably see a lot more net new people getting involved IMO