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NYT ran a story about The Fourth Turning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/08/style/fourth-turning-pop-culture.html

Basically, the book came along in the 1990s and said there would be a big crisis in the late 2000s, and then the 2010s-2020s would have a lot of similarities to the 1930s and 1940s for various qualitative/generational/cyclical reasons.

Normally I'm not really into that sort of qualitative/cyclical analysis, but when I'm sitting around making all sorts of quantitative charts that turn out like this:

Then I'm like:

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Discussion

vlada 2y ago 💬 2

And then what happens in the 2020s?

Gary ₿usey 2y ago

I'm curious, as well.

Gary ₿usey 2y ago

I believe she's suggesting that the 2020s will have many similarities to the Great Depression.

nobody 2y ago

I think the big fear is similar to what happened in the 1930s… we could see another rise of dictators and calls for war as the public get more squeezed and feel like everything is going wrong in their society.

Civilisation is only civilised when the majority feel like the game isn’t rigged against them. I can see the cost of living crisis potentially causing a lot of instability in western societies, and the outcome of that could be bloody indeed…. I’m hopeful that Bitcoin might help prevent this - but I’m not sure… Interesting times, as the proverb goes…

Gary ₿usey 2y ago

I think there's definitely going to be at least a short period of chaos in western countries. Ya can't have a debt-to-gdp ratio of over 120% and 32 trillion in national debt and have an inflation rate of ONLY 7%. That's ridiculous. Let's not forget about the U.S.' unfunded liabilities... 192 trillion!!! 🤕 Unfunded liabilities are debts, too. In reality the U.S. has around 225-226 trillion in debt... We dead ☹️

#MedicareIsWorthless

Gary ₿usey 2y ago

Another housing crisis is on the way.

nobody 2y ago

Yeh, it looks that way. People can’t go on with high inflation + high interest rates on mortgages - something will break. My fear is that a lot of folk will lose their homes, big property developers will then swoop in and buy a load of distressed property for cheap, as the banks try to offload it, and then the number of people forced into life-long renting just increases even more. It sucks that housing has become an investment asset - it should be a home first-and-foremost.

Gary ₿usey 2y ago

Lol. And people complain about Bitcoin's volatility?! 🙄🤡

Bill Cypher 2y ago

I first heard this theory about 15 years ago. Just early enough for me to still be dismissive.

I already consider it confirmed now. Just a question of how severe the correction will be.

StackSats.IO 2y ago

If surfer dude Mark Moss ends up being the most correct in retrospect with his analysis of the cycles converging when the dust settles after the impending shitstorm, I don’t know how the world will react to him being the new Michael Burry.

8d9608af... 2y ago

Ummm, maybe you should mention you're quoted in it! So modest. Congrats Lyn!