Michael Howell analysis for 2026
Discussion
Why does he believe that global liquidity has peaked in Q3 of 2025?
It's not that he believes it, it's that it has been drained mainly from the US Treasury account.
People look at the m2, but the m2 is only part of the liquidity mainly driven by China; private credit and dollar liquidity, among other things, are missing.
How much of global liquidity is the us? I don't think the us was easing in 2025 that much. Seems like the easing will be 2026
2026 will be worse than 2025
Really you think trump will give up the 2026 elections?
Bitcoin and stocks are not related 🤷♂️
Bitcoin is more sensitive to liquidity than stocks, just look at this last quarter.
The Fed has started easing already…. Tightening has been happening since the end of the pandemic…. Not sure how old this take is?!
This opinion is current; the desires of Bitcoiners who confuse "m2" with liquidity are one thing, but reality is another.
I’m not a believer in liquidity is what drives bitcoin’s price. I am just saying that the Fed is injecting liquidity to keep bonds solvent which is stealth easing. Bitcoin is beyond “m2”, people always want to attach or assign something they don’t control.
Predict the peak of bitcoin in this cycle simply by extrapolating liquidity flows. I think I'm the only one who got it right, so yes, bitcoin is a proxy for liquidity.
What they are injecting now is insufficient, and the debt refinancing wall is approaching, which will drain a lot of liquidity.
I don't expect much until after 2028.
But they can't refinance at higher rates right? Wouldn't they just do ycc ?
they will try to limit money supply / liquidity growth to keep (get?) control of inflation. until something breaks, then they will flood the market with liquidity again as they always did.
Yes, short term this makes sense until end of Q2 2026 in which the mother load of liquidity is coming. I do understand that printing affects the price of course. IMO bitcoin is becoming the macro barometer instead of just fait liquidity.