A fork will not be economically viable for them. The risk for standing on the wrong side of the fork is too high.
Discussion
Read this book. 
Is he wrong?
"why would anyone go to war if they could lose"
Some people live in an oh my sweet summer child version of our world.
best btc book around
Is this currently happening because I have no idea what people on Twitter are discussing.
Yesterday got to learn a new quantum computer thing will kill Bitcoin
And now a fork might kill Bitcoin
And Im still waiting for China banning Bitcoin again to kill Bitcoin.
Yes, It's that phase of the bull market, I guess.
I think the main concern now is that a fork designed to remove censorship resistance becomes more of a liklihood as more institutions get involved. Miners theoretically run the software for the chain that will get them the most profit, i.e. the chain the institutions want. And most people, especially those buying the ETFs etc. won't care or even realise what's happening. For this to work, I think institutions would need to hold a lot more of the supply. But the direction we're heading in indicates that it's likely to keep growing at a considerable rate.
Haven't listened to this one yet but it's probably a great listen that describes the issue
Full version
My node will not allow whatever anyone tries to do. Especially suits.
Your node can do whatever it wants, but that’s not the point…
I get all the fear and I get the argument but please don't underestimate all these psychopaths and crazies running nodes who would never go along with coinbase or whoever changing their rules, eventhough they alone might be more impactful than you or me or Lyn. Weird mountain men and women are Bitcoins super power.
As a weird mountain man, I never underestimate weird mountain men and women. Another important part of the analysis by nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a and nostr:npub1ug8c5wp6chs4xessrstq3mj0x0agkttey5xwk26632a2gw22de7qkfd9ry is that Bitcoiners who hold their own keys can move faster than large institutions and prices are determined at the margins, and I think this is an extremely important point.
Even though, it's better to make noise and get the word out there about this than to stick out heads in the sand and hope for the best. That's how they win.
I still need to watch the full version of this caus I'm not sure if Lyn spoke specifically about changes to censorship resistance, which I believe would be a more loosely held aspect, i.e. one in which holders would be more willing to forego as long as number still went up.
Excellent book.
One of the “must read”.
I have. Excellent historical account
can't find the pdf anywhere
The entire book is available for free online: https://blog.bitmex.com/the-blocksize-war-chapter-1-first-strike/
it's only the first chapter, or am I mistaken?
Is this being poster because of the Roger episode by Tucker? It packs a punch I have to admit, yet I know very was close to faketoshi, hard to see the truth from the spin here for someone who joined bitcoin after blocksize.
Tucker and Roger are utterly irrelevant
The present posture of the IRS on forking is that the new fork is an income event of a new coin essentially requiring you to immediately sell it off to satisfy the taxable event as it'll have the same "price" as the original fork for the first nano second it exists. Until there is some new guidance on this, I don't think any major holder is going to push for a fork or that fork is basically doomed due to the catastrophic immediate income event. It'll be curious to see how this is dealt with.
Fucking dumb.
I'm ashamed to admit I haven't read it. I will read it.
Is running a full node the first line of defense?
I thought the failure of the big blockers was a great example for why no one would ever dare to try this. The opportunity cost were extreme and still are to this date.
I mean sure, there are actors, who might not care about opportunity cost but blackrock doesn't look like one to me, especially since the ETF holds the corn for their clients, not themselves. This is not an endorsement of them I just think that scenario is highly unlikely.
BlackRock and MicroStrategy are the last players that want to fuck with bitcoin. They are not the threat to bitcoin. Devs and influencers trying to make a contribution is who are creating risk by wanting changes like the big blockers did back then
To steelman Calle’s point, in the Blocksize Wars people with small amounts of BTC compared to the whole network DID attempt a user hostile fork. So it’s at least possible again, and should not be categorically dismissed. Maybe the chances aren’t high, but definitely not zero and people should be ready to run a URSF client and throw their economic weight behind their beliefs. Current example Paul at Layer Two Labs is lobbying miners to unilaterally start enforcing BIPs 300/301. I don’t think it’ll go anywhere, but again just to make the point we must remain vigilant.
I did great book
Hot take: both sides ultimately lost. At first glance, it might seem like the “small blockers” won since the Bitcoin blockchain remained capped at 1MB for base block sizes. However, in reality, we got effectively bigger blocks through the implementation of SegWit (Segregated Witness), which increased the block weight limit to 4MB. This outcome wasn’t what the “big blockers” initially wanted, as their proposal focused on straightforward block size increases rather than protocol changes like SegWit.
Years later, the debate comes full circle with the rise of inscriptions and Ordinals, which allow the creation of NFTs and similar data on-chain. This has led to block spam filling up the expanded block space, essentially achieving the higher block size utilization that “big blockers” initially sought to avoid high transaction fees—but not in the way they envisioned. Instead of optimizing for payment transactions, much of the block space is now used for storing non-financial data, frustrating both camps.
In the end, the Bitcoin community settled on a compromise that pleased neither side fully, and subsequent developments have further blurred the lines between the two philosophies.
block war coming. powerful ignoramuses entering bitcoin.
just ordered this book. It will be some xmas reading.