What exactly annoys you? You could also replace ‘cycle’ with ‘bullmarket’ and given that this stuff seems to ‘repeat’ using the word ‘cycle’ does not seem all that strange. Is it the assumed determinism behind the word?
Discussion
Yeah it's the presumption of predictability. The psychological safety of knowing it will go back up after it goes down. You know nothing of the sort.
well, sure, i guess. But please keep in mind that (fuck you i will use cycles because up until now it obviously has been cyclical) if you have been in Bitcoin for a few cycles, it is all so much easier. The anxiety of people who fairly recently got into bitcoin given all the volatility forces their monkey brains to look for something to hold on to. And because every cycle the amount of new people coming into 'the space' grows, their mindset makes up a large part of the narrative. 'Conviction' is easy when you are already up a gazillion %. Also these people are obviously not 'in it for the tech' people like us, otherwise they would have been here early on. So they rely on stupid shallow talking points to constitute their Bitcoin understanding, and in the back of their mind they probably are aware of this.
Dont be too hard on these people.
Or in other words, don't be a Bitcoin snob.
Be a Bitcoin aristocrat instead, and understand the sorrows of the small folk
Don't assume everyone who's been involved for a long time is "up a gazillion %". It might be a lot rarer than you think.
The *last* thing i want to give any newcomer into this, if we mean as an investment, is psychological comfort.
They themselves might, over time, find that comfort and I'm all for helping people with education.
But selling it to people, marketing it, convincing them with concepts like guaranteed cycles, or guaranteed anything ... I'm dead set against that.
jeeez, i was just being hyperbolic, being at a simple 10x during a bear market does wonders taking the edge off is all i am saying (being up 10x during the bull does not count).
Well sure but I'm dead serious. I think proselytising bitcoin is bad, not just "it doesn't end up helping that much", but it's actually bad, or at least counterproductive
Yes. Cycles, bull markets, these concepts have no meaning unless they're implying a determinism, in which case they are horribly wrong.
I think the “cycle” people are talking about in your references is the reactive (presumed deterministic) nature of market price from the halving being every four years and then leaving humans to do human things on the heals of that math event. Until it breaks it actually looks cyclical. Climb, blow off, retrace, consolidate, on repeat. Can’t fault them. But it’s tricky to take it to the bank as proof of future performance.
My fav chart that BitboCharts slapped up…
