I have to sell Bitcoin to buy 10k lbs of grapes next month. This dip feels like a short/medium term inflection point for the next several months.
What should I do?
A) Sell "all" now - expect bigger dip
B) ~50/50
C) Sell "all" later - expect a rip
Discussion
Currently struggling with a similar decision to pay the credit card this month
Payment due within the next three weeks and don’t know when I should sell the sats
Hmm, I like the option of not selling your corn.
Have you ever thought about a CSA model? They buy shares in the biz and get guaranteed case of wine for the next x years at y discount off retail?
Might be a way to do this all using verifiable ownership on the block chain (Bitcoin of course, no shitcoins).
Thanks Chris! I have a wine club. Don't feel comfortable promising wine that doesn't exist yet tho
What about using Figure or Strike to borrower against said btc?
Not a bad idea in a vacuum but I have enough risk already
Risk? You risk missing out on the annually cagr if you sell.
Worst case you have to sell and I guess paid interest on the gamble. Or get rugged somehow? But at least you got the proceeds.
CAGR is an average growth rate usually quoted in years and my time horizon is ~2 months
Trust me. I'm long already.
Strike or ledn loan? Sell btc to pay off the loan monthly so you can spread out the btc sells over 12 months?
I have enough risk rn. Would be great if not!
B seems the wisest
Sell all now. If you are in a situation like this you have not enough fiat. One shouldn’t rely on short term price speculation. Bitcoin is for long term savings.
Reverse DCA?
Better than 50/50?
I have no idea. Just a thought that came to mind. If it's good for planned buying, why not planned selling in reverse? You can never know whether now is a high or low. That's probably how I would do a planned sell, but I hadn't thought much about it until now. I'm not totally sure what you even mean by 50/50. Maybe it is better.
Sell now sell later for 50/50
I hear you tho and it's probs the move
Would it be possible to work something out with the vendor? Maybe you can offer to pay them over a few months, and if you get the fiat then pay it off early, and if BTC rips you can sell at a higher point to pay it off early
I have a bit more flexibility than I let on here, but the point remains about price over the next couple months
If I had to guess if between now and October 21st would the Bitcoin price be higher at any time in that window than it is right now, I’d say most likely
My problem is that I ALWAYS say that
Fuck…me too 😆
Whelp it's gotten me this far!
Ok here’s my real answer: When I get too in my head about should I do this or that with btc in terms of when to buy or sell, what I instead is just execute on the decision, stop spending energy on it, and instead focus on doing the thing I’m good at (in my case helping people buy and sell real estate) which then brings in much more income for me than trying to “time” things.
TLDR: buy the damn grapes asap, make the wine, vlog about it.
Oh wow. Now there's V-Logging involved? I'm in
Mostly C. Longer version…. 1. Remove sell from your lexicon 2. Think in FIFO terms and SPEND your satoshis as needed to meet expenses. Since you’re really spending sats from years ago, no matter what they have more purchasing power than when you acquired them. 3. Sats you’re acquiring now won’t be spent for years so don’t conflate the $ cost with the ones you’re spending. 4. Remember no one can predict the future. 🚁😁
I’d personally reverse DCA. No financial but life advice 🧡🫂💜. Thanks for doing what you do I think it’s awesome cheers to you 🍷
It helps to outsource brainstorming when living on the edge.
Appreciate you sir and love your posts 🫡
I sometimes reverse DCA if I know I will have a big credit card bill coming in. Instead of paying the full thing on the due date I pay multiple payments throughout the month using Strike. Meanwhile I’m also DCAing my paycheck on an hourly basis. I’ve tried timing the market and I’ve learned that I’m retarded.
😂 no worries we’re all retarded no fu chance to be “smarter” than the free market.
I am an idiot and this is not financial advice but I think we march towards 118 by end of next week
If you sell your wine for BTC but your suppliers take fiat only (or price their grapes in USD) you are taking a ton of FX risk. You should sell enough BTC to cover the cost as soon as you get paid, or use futures.
what about DCA'ing out? do you need to buy all the grapes in 1 transaction?
Strike loan
take a business loan and use the made up money to finance it
Been Maxxing that out to stack for yrs
Tryna get out a debt now
Sell what you need to sell now and keep what you can keep. I did it like this at around 109 for a downpayment that I'm gonna need in january next years. The gambling was'nt worth the stress. Bitcoin is not for gambling imo.
take a loan against your bitcoin, don’t sell
It's disturbing how flippantly that gets thrown around
But Saylor said so, has to be right. Right?
Thanks for the feedback , you can reach out to me privately now for a quick conversation on SimpleX app using the link below…
https://smp17.simplex.im/a#F2uAHBWJh0UXvrS5Uz7iKeHKDsYclR2ncNLxk6PeTO8
I recently looked into this to mimick the Infinite Banking Concept but the platforms that support taking a loan against your BTC charge an interest rate that goes in their pocket. With IBC, the interest should go back into your pockets, not a 3rd party
bitcoin loans should be p2p only but how to do that ?
What i find is always the best solution is to have inertia when it comes to bitcoin. If I feel pressured to take a decision today i go to bed and let it simmer for some time. I think that if you keep calm and think about it for a bit more time the answer will be obvious.
Well yeah duh
We're not in any crazy times right now as far as insane rips coming as far as I can see, but there is a possibility we'll see $150k within a couple months.
I'd go with B, half now half later. Get the average sale price between now and then, might end up being higher than the current ATH was.
Orange pill the grape guy?
Lol I can't stand not being 100% all the time. So I'd just wait til whatever day it is you need to buy and sell then. Probably terrible advice.
I too like to fuck around and find out so I'll probably do that
I Paid rent and car rental yesterday 😂
LFG
Are people generally more open to it out there given they have more experience with bad money?
sell all and be happy with the profits you've made + that you are able to reinvest in your business
stop with the what if's 💜
C! it all balances out in the end, but I'd rather hold more BTC