I have no opinion about MicroStrategy but I’m interested in learning about its strategy and what will happen when price goes down.
Can somebody give me a video or article that explains it in understandable language?
Discussion
As long as you have data to think btc will rise over time, MSTR will as well. Don't overthink it.
easy to buy Bitcoin on borrowed money to buy more and more by using previous buys as collateral to borrow more money. Thing will get interesting when those senior notes have to be settled.
Agreed, and when a bear market with -85% hits
Unlikely with long term allocations but hey I’m not leveraging so more cheap sats
IF we get an 85er this cycle then Michael would be still in the green with the current DCA of MS's stack. I think as long as Bitcoin stays above 69k the firm will be alright as long as they can settle those senior notes without having to sell all their coins.
In my mind going below 69k isn’t unrealistic haha
But yeah I understand it. But I also think IF something extremely bad happen it will push back Bitcoin adoption a few years as Saylor is obliged to sell some corn
No?
I agree. I doubt that we'll see sub 69k again when the bear market hits. Expected 18k last cycle because it was the previous high. 15k came at a surprise but it didn't last long and we went straight back to the 108k range. By that logic and assuming that we will ever see a ~85% bear market pullback, the firm should be fine. "should"
I've owned for a long time. Are you asking what happens if they are forced to liquidate? When BTC went down to 15k they were trading slightly below the value of the treasury. Currently they are about 4x treasury (rough math). All of the convertible debt contracts are long term, so liquidation risk is pretty low.
Explain me how liquidation risk is low
What happens if BTC drops -85% in 2026?
I'm not saying the risk is 0, but, we've seen them deal with aggressive draw downs already, and they manage them quite well. It probably has to do with saylor's relationship with the other side of the trade and liquidity.
The liquidation risk is low because he has paid off all the debt he owed. All the new debt being issued are converts, meaning it is paid off in equity.
Once the converts mature, new shares are issued, so the risk isn’t one of liquidation, but rather dilution.
The only real risk is that the price of MSTR goes down, there isn’t a real risk that he becomes a forced seller of bitcoin, unless there is some operational cost that can’t be covered but the overhead is ridiculously low for the values he’s managing.
Basically all of the risk is on the individuals buying the converts as the coupon is 0 and the reward is equity.
This guy does the deepest dive that I've found:
https://x.com/PunterJeff/status/1842588288454144403?t=klE3TkZFQN9R_hMjHQjzaQ&s=19
Thank you
long dated MSTR options are this century's
"Go West, young man"
You could strike it rich or go bust like the 49rs
Even buying small amount will be pretty crazy, if MSTR continues its insane trajectory 🙉. wish I could rewind time to bear market and load up on some MSTR. 😭
Nah I don’t. The reason I own Bitcoin is for more sophisticated than wanting to own a stock that goes up in fiat value
Yeah its a stock at the end of the day. Not even a claim on Bitcoin. Atleast Bitcoin ETF has that. Nothing is as good as self custody Bitcoin 👍
I just have it because it's in a retirement account that I'm supposed to have.
If I think it's 50/50 chance that stock market survives and we don't have to relocate to another country/planet.
So I allow myself 50/50 in old and new system. And the 50% in the old system is in an account I was supposed to have anyway for retirement.
I was thinking about this earlier how every stock is a gamble at the end of the day
Even choosing Bitcoin over gold or property is a sort of gamble.
Call options on Microstrategy is adding unnecessary risk reward on the gamble.
I drive an old car and frequently take the bus so somewhere along the line I feel like I can afford a sleek fast call option or 2.
But ultimately like Mr. Toad and his fast cars, it might result in a wild ride, a wrecked portfolio and dressing up as a "washer woman" to sneak on the train to get back home.
I'm guessing the lesson of this story is, if you look like you work somewhere, no one will mind you being there. I should probably get some life skills like house keeping so I can sneak into hotels. If it all goes to pot. 
Solid points
Like Mr Toad, I do love my fast cars, I drive a Z4E85 (cost me 2k...shhhh don't tell anyone). I don't think I will ever trade it in for a Lambo, I like to get all the benefits without the down sides. Driving a Lambo has its down sides. 🙃
So all I need now is a good variety of uniforms and I'm all set 🙊.
Yeah having balance is important ⚖️ 💯
You must be a minimalist to fit your travel stuff into a 2 seater!
You be surprised, it's a decent sized boot, can squeeze a big suitcase or 2 small cases. Minimalist suits me perfectly. Keeps me grounded. 👌
Keeps your potential partner grounded too 😀 and no pet! Unless it's small
Ive always wanted a dog, but a pet is hard if travelling around, maybe once I've picked a location outside of UK. Currently looking at different countries to set up a new home in.
As for a partner, I would need to find a girl that doesn't need too much space for shoes, all my past girlfriends have been shoe crazy! 👠👠👠 Women 🤷♂️
I'm getting serious fomo to buy MSTR.
Not without risks. Im still looking into it too.
🤔