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For Ukraine to come out of this war OK, it needs to take some kind of action or actions that cause Russia to stop attacking it and stop capturing it's land.

Maybe that action is a negotiated agreement.

Maybe that action is some kind of well designed military strikes.

But whatever actions are taken, they must not cause Russia to feel that it is under an existential threat. Attacks that disable Russia's ability to defend itself against other worldwide nuclear powers, like against its first-strike radar (as was done), or its nuclear bombers (as was done), may cause Russia to take the severe action of disabling Ukraine for good.

Attacking Ukraine with nuclear weapons probably would not cause NATO powers to strike Russia with nuclear weapons, because that would be well known as the MAD ending. Russia doesn't want to hit Ukraine with nukes. But it becomes their best strategic choice as soon as Ukraine effectively disables their ability to retaliate against a nuclear attack. Was this attack on the bombers such a thing? Probably not. But it's definitely encroaching on that territory.

If Russia nuked Ukraine in retaliation for the attack on their bombers, I'm not sure there is any way Ukraine or NATO could effectively respond. And that makes it strategically viable for Russia to do it, whereas yesterday it wasn't. And that is why I mentioned earlier that Ukraine making it's last moves was strategically "questionable".

Daring them is dumb. You will think you are winning until the day you lose catastrophically. Like double-or-nothing on the roulette table.

btcttombola 7mo ago 💬 2

Any war is a double-or-nothing on the roulette table.

You don't know what could happen next.

Why ?

Because you don't expect the next move of your "enemy", his resilience, and the way he can push you back. You can only expect it, without being sure of it.

Russia didn't expect so much resistance from ukraininan. Bad move.

Russia attacks energy supplies to put all the people in the frost and dark. Bad move.

Russia attacks people and not military target only. Bad move.

When you want to win a fight, you must be clever like the china have done with some lands around.

Military action is the last way to try to win, not the first.

And it seems Russia feels so powerful that they forgot they could loose more than they expected.

China is waiting the moment Russia will be too weak, and they will push on them just after.

In a way, it is "funny" because in the beginning of the 2nd world war, Germany and Russia agreed on a no-aggression pact. And after Germany get stronger they just attack Russia.

It seems they didn't learn from this lesson, or just history is a never ending remake.

And civilian are just treated as shit in all of this, whatever the country they belong.

Peace is good, but what is the real cost of it, your freedom ? your life ?

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Discussion

Low Information Voter 7mo ago 💬 2

Clever like China? China has invaded every one of its land neighbours at some point post-WW2, and has spent most of the 2000s seizing reefs and islets from its maritime neighbours.

Koreans and Japanese despise them. Filipinos and Vietnamese hate them. Russians and Central Asians merely mistrust them.

Chinese diplomacy was an epic fail even before the "Wolf Warrior" episode. They have far more to learn from Russia than the reverse...

btcttombola 7mo ago

China don't have any clear war open against a country, they do it in a "clean" way crushing any resistance (i am not saying it is a good thing, but it is their strategy).

Could you said the same about Russia ?

West european now hate russians.

Middle european country despise them.

So what do you think it would happen when these both "powerful" countries (Russia and China) will have no more land to expand ?

They will stay friend ? 🤣

That's why i said it is just an history repeating. Not because the countries are the same. But the behaviors are the same.

Low Information Voter 7mo ago 💬 2

Erm, no way dude.

China's way of war is incredibly destructive.

Combined with their poor logistics last century, they killed hundreds of thousands of neighbours for trifling territorial gains - two river islands they failed to hold against the USSR in 1981 (Putin then ceded those in the 2000s), 40% of a Korean mountain in '53, the cratered ruins of one Vietnamese village in 1981. Admittedly the seizure of the (Vietnamese) Paracel Islands in '75 was a better prize. Scarborough Shoal in PH right now is of minimal value, mostly fishing rights.

Agree re Russia, total disagree re China.

In the West, our educators run interference for the CCP for free, and our leaders for favours, but in East Asia people will tell you what they think.

btcttombola 7mo ago

Don't misunderstand me.

I didn't say the way China was not destructive.

I said they have done it a way less "visible", they invade lands without a lot of resistance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_battles_involving_China

Russia action is a lot more visible and ukraine is the big visible shoot they have made.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia

Do you see an "Ongoing" war in the China page ?

Low Information Voter 7mo ago 💬 2

That's that interference I was talking about.

Since 1981, when Ronald Reagan threatened to nuke the USSR if they nuked China, Western diplomatic and media doctrine has been to cover for China, in the hope of reciprocity and favours.

What China does is not secret, but Wikipedia dares not speak the words.

Chinese marines and warships occupy a good chunk of the Philippines' EEZ and minor islets.

Right now.

These days, they fire warning shots at Filipino fishermen who come too close to the stolen territory, instead of just killing them without warning. That's an improvement. Maybe the current Chinese officers trained in Russia :D

btcttombola 7mo ago

"instead of just killing them without warning" you mean civilian were warn just before they were killed ?

i am really not saying russia or china is the best.

They are both evil to me whatever the war they are making.

They kill privacy of their peoples, no freedom, no liberty, they are only used as fuel for their leaders power.

Low Information Voter 7mo ago 💬 1

Agree, 100%

And this is also true of Australia, the USA and many nations in the EU.

Same evil, just different levels of power and excuse-making.

btcttombola 7mo ago

The world and power should be a lot more decentralized.

It is concentration that make all these few leaders so powerful from any countries they are.

And victims are not the one who engaged theses useless wars.

It would be better a world when leader fight themselves for their power, in a boxing ring for example.

Like some did in ancient time, when the leader had his head cut or was captured then the war stop.

Nowadays they are over protected and never had to assume the consequence of their decisions, this would have to change if we want to live in a more peaceful world.

Thanks for this exchange of point of view.

#thinkstr

Mike Dilger ☑️ 7mo ago 💬 1

Nobody is free as far as I'm aware. We are all tax slaves to some government. But some are more free than others. I don't see any difference between being in Ukraine or Russia when it comes to freedom. From what I understand, I think I would be more free in Russia than in Ukraine. I think this argument that Ukraine is more free is propaganda.

Yes, Russia has attacked more civilians than Ukraine has. But this is largely a consequence of the theatre of war being Ukraine, not Russia.

I am first for the civilians. My whole motiviation for talking about it at all is to save as many human lives as possible, to avoid as much death as possible. I may be wrong about how to achieve it.

btcttombola 7mo ago

The only difference is that Russia had attacked Ukraine "physically" 2 times (crimea first and all the country after that).

And people living there were just living their live in peace before that.

War have just put more propaganda in young spirit about the reason why they have to fight the enemy.

They will be no right way to achieve this. it will take a very long time before russian and ukrainian could live again in peace, whatever way this conflict will end.

Because red line have been crossed in both side, and you can't force people to forgot and forgive the pain they have seen and lived in their bones.

And imagining only the "tax" to define freedom is really reductive.

Freedom is also define in a part with this :

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/06/18/russia-growing-internet-isolation-control-censorship

And you can say ukraine do the same now with "war-laws" but it is because of war and some russian people undercover on his territory that make sabotage inside the country directly.

And we agree civilian are just the victims of this any country they are born in.