For Ukraine to come out of this war OK, it needs to take some kind of action or actions that cause Russia to stop attacking it and stop capturing it's land.

Maybe that action is a negotiated agreement.

Maybe that action is some kind of well designed military strikes.

But whatever actions are taken, they must not cause Russia to feel that it is under an existential threat. Attacks that disable Russia's ability to defend itself against other worldwide nuclear powers, like against its first-strike radar (as was done), or its nuclear bombers (as was done), may cause Russia to take the severe action of disabling Ukraine for good.

Attacking Ukraine with nuclear weapons probably would not cause NATO powers to strike Russia with nuclear weapons, because that would be well known as the MAD ending. Russia doesn't want to hit Ukraine with nukes. But it becomes their best strategic choice as soon as Ukraine effectively disables their ability to retaliate against a nuclear attack. Was this attack on the bombers such a thing? Probably not. But it's definitely encroaching on that territory.

If Russia nuked Ukraine in retaliation for the attack on their bombers, I'm not sure there is any way Ukraine or NATO could effectively respond. And that makes it strategically viable for Russia to do it, whereas yesterday it wasn't. And that is why I mentioned earlier that Ukraine making it's last moves was strategically "questionable".

Daring them is dumb. You will think you are winning until the day you lose catastrophically. Like double-or-nothing on the roulette table.

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The biggest downside for Russia would be if it was seen as a pariah by it's current allies. So I presume that Russia will be consulting with China and Iran and others before it makes it's retaliation.

Russia doesn’t need to use nukes. The new Oreshnik missile is comparable to a nuclear warhead in terms of destructive power but without the radioactive aftermath.

Last time it was used, the warheads were empty or something... just a demonstration of the hypersonic nature. Have we seen conventional Oreshnik warhead strikes yet? Do we have estimates of how powerful they would be?

Getting hit at Mach 11, there's not a lot of difference between HMX and sand.

Yes, it was used without nuclear to destroy a factory, as far as I remember.

Yes and the factory complex was damaged, but that wasn't anything like a nuclear strike.

Perhaps! I remember it was marketed as a big deal even in the western media but not sure why exactly.

Mach 11 is pretty hard for AD to react to, never mind intercept.

But comparing any non-nuclear payload to a nuclear one is absurd hype...

the very fact they developed that system means they do not want to nuke anybody.

however an Oreshnik strike on a G7 meeting would certainly be a wake up call to the Globalists.

remember that all the Russian attacks so far are on infrastructure, not even on military personnel, let alone on political leaders

you do not need kilotons of TNT if you're striking the right target.

the people in charge do not care if you murder 10 million of their civilians. they DO care if you murder THEM.

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Current Western leaders are so often drunk or high on cocaine they probably think they can stop an Oreshnik with emotional blackmail or a tantrum.

Other than that, 100% agree

if not sure then STFU

Dude, chill

Ukraine's mixed Banderite/Globalist government is winning.

Not against Russia, but against the true enemy - Western taxpayers.

When your center-of-gravity is split between Monaco and New York, a nuclear attack on Kiev is a blessed opportunity, to be engineered into being by any means required.

This is one of the possibilities I've been concerned about. I think the Ukrainians are being jacked up on moral righteousness and revenge, by strategic thinkers outside of Ukraine who benefit from Ukraine's destruction. Being right feels great. It will be on many gravestones.

The Ukrainians have carried out a number of successful and rather audacious attacks — so many that it's hard to recall them all — but there have been more than a dozen large-scale operations against both civilian and military targets in Russia. Moscow, on the other hand, hasn't been particularly active in this regard. One might assume that this is due to strict Ukrainian and Western censorship, and that similar Russian actions simply aren't being reported—but that's not the case. Trains are indeed running in Ukraine, factories and enterprises are operating, agricultural work is underway — things are happening there that are hard to even imagine, for example, in Palestine. And that's probably a good thing.

Moscow, for now, is mostly making declarations and seems to be holding back. It may look like weakness, but at the same time, it's important to understand that Russia has not only military interests in Ukraine, but political ones as well. That's why, despite the provocations, Moscow can't afford to lose its head and act like Israel.

I get the impression that Russians don't hate Ukrainians like Ukrainians hate Russians. Ukrainians seem to hate Putin/Moscow with a deeper hatred than I've ever before encountered. Maybe they always hated Russia for subjugating Ukraine. Banderites sided with Hitler since he was freeing Ukraine from their oppressor.

You'll find a large minority of Australians hate America, mostly for its perceived cultural dominance.

Whilst Americans never seem to regard Australians with anything worse than condecension.

I see a lot of parallels there with Ukr and RU.

Except the part where we are neighbors or have any interest in taking over Australia. But I guess if we did it would just be the English speaking part who are basically Ethnic Americans.

We actually are neighbours, there's just a bit of water in between, that your navy dominates.

Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, all of Australia is the English-speaking part, which also has the iron and coal. Just like Donbas.

And we're #2 or #3 in the world for rare earth reserves (UA actually has none of value).

I should shut up about now :p

You make an interesting case. But we'd have to be able to make the case that those English speakers were being oppressed, but as a critical part of the free world you'd be hard-pressed to find rights that Australian do not have full access to.

Rights?

- Guns

- Free speech

- Freedom of Assembly

would be the big ones we're short on.

In my state, being caught in possession of design files or blueprints for a firearm without written authority is a three year prison sentence.

But our government oppresses most of us equally, English is an official language, and no foreign powers are building bases here except the US of A.

No need to liberate us just yet 😉

I am mostly just sore over the treatment of Novak Djokovic for the 2022 Australian Open. Not that the U.S. did any better with the U.S Open. The vaccination travel bans were the dumbest thing ever.

Facts

There are plenty of supporters of the war to annihilate Ukraine, and they actively promote a hateful narrative, but they don’t actually hold real power or make any decisions in Russia. Of course, everything could change at any moment.

I'm glad for Russia's restraint. I'd like if there were a settlement. Nobody will be happy with a settlement, but less innocents dying is what my outsider aim is... not being on either side or having any real stake in it.

there are a lot of ethnic Russians in Ukraine that's why. not as many ethnic Ukrainians in Russia. also Russia poses a threat to Ukraine but Ukraine doesn't pose a threat to Russia. this is why Ukrainians would like to see Russia wiped off the face of the earth but Russians wouldn't want to do the same to Ukraine. that doesn't make Russians morally superior - they are simply in a different situation.

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Russia seems to be aware that the current empire is fading, so it fights a slow war of attrition, without giving it any angle for an explosive escalation. I wonder how long russia can restrain itself though ... its getting harder.

Yes I keep hearing they are committed to the slow march, not going to be provoked. I suppose they've calculated that a massive retaliation doesn't actually put them in a better place. I'm not sure how that calculation goes though.

Any war is a double-or-nothing on the roulette table.

You don't know what could happen next.

Why ?

Because you don't expect the next move of your "enemy", his resilience, and the way he can push you back. You can only expect it, without being sure of it.

Russia didn't expect so much resistance from ukraininan. Bad move.

Russia attacks energy supplies to put all the people in the frost and dark. Bad move.

Russia attacks people and not military target only. Bad move.

When you want to win a fight, you must be clever like the china have done with some lands around.

Military action is the last way to try to win, not the first.

And it seems Russia feels so powerful that they forgot they could loose more than they expected.

China is waiting the moment Russia will be too weak, and they will push on them just after.

In a way, it is "funny" because in the beginning of the 2nd world war, Germany and Russia agreed on a no-aggression pact. And after Germany get stronger they just attack Russia.

It seems they didn't learn from this lesson, or just history is a never ending remake.

And civilian are just treated as shit in all of this, whatever the country they belong.

Peace is good, but what is the real cost of it, your freedom ? your life ?

Clever like China? China has invaded every one of its land neighbours at some point post-WW2, and has spent most of the 2000s seizing reefs and islets from its maritime neighbours.

Koreans and Japanese despise them. Filipinos and Vietnamese hate them. Russians and Central Asians merely mistrust them.

Chinese diplomacy was an epic fail even before the "Wolf Warrior" episode. They have far more to learn from Russia than the reverse...

China don't have any clear war open against a country, they do it in a "clean" way crushing any resistance (i am not saying it is a good thing, but it is their strategy).

Could you said the same about Russia ?

West european now hate russians.

Middle european country despise them.

So what do you think it would happen when these both "powerful" countries (Russia and China) will have no more land to expand ?

They will stay friend ? 🤣

That's why i said it is just an history repeating. Not because the countries are the same. But the behaviors are the same.

Erm, no way dude.

China's way of war is incredibly destructive.

Combined with their poor logistics last century, they killed hundreds of thousands of neighbours for trifling territorial gains - two river islands they failed to hold against the USSR in 1981 (Putin then ceded those in the 2000s), 40% of a Korean mountain in '53, the cratered ruins of one Vietnamese village in 1981. Admittedly the seizure of the (Vietnamese) Paracel Islands in '75 was a better prize. Scarborough Shoal in PH right now is of minimal value, mostly fishing rights.

Agree re Russia, total disagree re China.

In the West, our educators run interference for the CCP for free, and our leaders for favours, but in East Asia people will tell you what they think.

Don't misunderstand me.

I didn't say the way China was not destructive.

I said they have done it a way less "visible", they invade lands without a lot of resistance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_battles_involving_China

Russia action is a lot more visible and ukraine is the big visible shoot they have made.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia

Do you see an "Ongoing" war in the China page ?

That's that interference I was talking about.

Since 1981, when Ronald Reagan threatened to nuke the USSR if they nuked China, Western diplomatic and media doctrine has been to cover for China, in the hope of reciprocity and favours.

What China does is not secret, but Wikipedia dares not speak the words.

Chinese marines and warships occupy a good chunk of the Philippines' EEZ and minor islets.

Right now.

These days, they fire warning shots at Filipino fishermen who come too close to the stolen territory, instead of just killing them without warning. That's an improvement. Maybe the current Chinese officers trained in Russia :D

"instead of just killing them without warning" you mean civilian were warn just before they were killed ?

i am really not saying russia or china is the best.

They are both evil to me whatever the war they are making.

They kill privacy of their peoples, no freedom, no liberty, they are only used as fuel for their leaders power.

Agree, 100%

And this is also true of Australia, the USA and many nations in the EU.

Same evil, just different levels of power and excuse-making.

The world and power should be a lot more decentralized.

It is concentration that make all these few leaders so powerful from any countries they are.

And victims are not the one who engaged theses useless wars.

It would be better a world when leader fight themselves for their power, in a boxing ring for example.

Like some did in ancient time, when the leader had his head cut or was captured then the war stop.

Nowadays they are over protected and never had to assume the consequence of their decisions, this would have to change if we want to live in a more peaceful world.

Thanks for this exchange of point of view.

#thinkstr

Nobody is free as far as I'm aware. We are all tax slaves to some government. But some are more free than others. I don't see any difference between being in Ukraine or Russia when it comes to freedom. From what I understand, I think I would be more free in Russia than in Ukraine. I think this argument that Ukraine is more free is propaganda.

Yes, Russia has attacked more civilians than Ukraine has. But this is largely a consequence of the theatre of war being Ukraine, not Russia.

I am first for the civilians. My whole motiviation for talking about it at all is to save as many human lives as possible, to avoid as much death as possible. I may be wrong about how to achieve it.

The only difference is that Russia had attacked Ukraine "physically" 2 times (crimea first and all the country after that).

And people living there were just living their live in peace before that.

War have just put more propaganda in young spirit about the reason why they have to fight the enemy.

They will be no right way to achieve this. it will take a very long time before russian and ukrainian could live again in peace, whatever way this conflict will end.

Because red line have been crossed in both side, and you can't force people to forgot and forgive the pain they have seen and lived in their bones.

And imagining only the "tax" to define freedom is really reductive.

Freedom is also define in a part with this :

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/06/18/russia-growing-internet-isolation-control-censorship

And you can say ukraine do the same now with "war-laws" but it is because of war and some russian people undercover on his territory that make sabotage inside the country directly.

And we agree civilian are just the victims of this any country they are born in.

here is a direct copy / paste of what i wrote on X yesterday:

"if Putin uses Nukes he will lose China's support, which is something he can't afford

he won't use Nukes unless his back is against the wall with NATO troops marching on Moscow preparing to publicly execute him like Saddam and Gaddafi

if we get to that point he MIGHT

as Art of War teaches - never attack a cornered / wounded rat - always leave your enemy a path to retreat - because a desperate enemy is dangerous"

source: https://x.com/DissyTheCuck/status/1929310348789579899

Putin getting one between the eyes would probably be good for everyone involved. But I'm sure some other asshole would take his place.

Someone else would take his place. Odds are that someone else would be far less restrained, as most Russians consider Putin to be too soft.

I question any sources that say that honestly. Especially coming from Russia. He would directly benefit from the rest of us believing that narrative. You could be right though. I don't know. I'm just pretty skeptical in general these days with all the wars going on. Even for the sides I lean toward supporting. It's all a case by case basis for me. All governments I know of are varying degrees of dog shit.

FYI, this is a problem for others using your Lightning solution