Its not a psyop nor really an attack vector. Saylor is genuine in his goals.
But MSTR could be the trigger that breaks this bull market like FTX or the GBTC arbitrage was for the previous.
We all know what leverage can do and regardless of whether MSTR is using traditional leverage or leveraging its own shareholders, this could break in spectacular and unexpected ways.
Proceed with caution.
Huh? They are massively under-levered. About 17% of their bitcoin holdings. Debt is unsecured also. There is no liquidation risk even if bitcoin goes to a penny.
You sound like boomers telling people bitcoin is dangerous and risky. It’s ok to not know things. No need to fud out of ignorance
Yes, it would be good to hear a detailed thesis how such a thing could happen.
If MSTR is a sponge for Bitcoin, what squishes the sponge to release the Bitcoin and break the bull market?
1. Someone loses MSTR keys--> good for Bitcoin
2. Government nationalizes MSTR --> neither bad or good for bitcoin (bad briefly if they force sale but if they find it valuable enough to raid, why would they then sell Bitcoin?)
3. What am I missing?
The bitcoin on their balance sheet is permanent capital. Nothing outside of them using the bitcoin to grow the business way down the line can force them to sell the bitcoin.
Those scenarios are very unlikely. Might as well throw aliens coming down and stealing the bitcoin.
What you’re missing is that they set up their strategy so they don’t have to sell the bitcoin.
Hah, love it. So MSTR is net benefit to Bitcoin NGU and cannot break the bull market.
Basically
Which means their custodian doesn’t have to hold the bitcoin. Duh.
So even if they don't hold any Bitcoin, it doesn't hurt actual bitcoiners when MSTR becomes the next Enron. It just blows up MSTR shareholders not Bitcoin holders.
So i don't know why bitcoiners are worried about Microstrategy hurting Bitcoin.
Cope that the stock outperformed bitcoin from the bottom of the bear until now? So they actively wish for its demise like they do the ETFs It’s the OPs way
I have, on a cost basis, 5% of my net worth in MSTR. If you have more, good for you. But you’re trusting, not verifying. Your MSTR position could get rekt.
Proof of reserves helps to derisk rekt risk. Unclear why Saylor doesn’t do it…
Not everything has to be trust-less. My MSTR position can get rekt the same way any other security can get rekt.
He has his reasons. I am not under the impression that he is lying. There is no incentive for him or the custodians to lie, especially after seeing what happened to SBF.
People can make their own judgement. Mine isn’t based on emotions, so I sleep well at night.
ok good to hear! BITB ETF used to publish their bitcoin address, but they don't advertise it anymore. I'm not sure what risk they see in showing the address
other than people sending unsolicited transactions to their account for fun.
perhaps people prefer to have this just available to auditors for privacy reasons.
there is this Dune dashboard which i believe obfuscates the exact address somehow. Why MSTR can't do something similar is a good question. it doesn't concern me at all since i assume public companies have to be audited pretty thoroughly. but i see your point.
Yeah bro it’s all smoke and mirrors 🤫
Fair enough, I'm definitely not trying to fud but I do see patterns between cycles and I'm very much on the lookout for this cycle's black swan.
And I'll admit ignorance on the tools that Taylor is using - corporate finance is way behind me.
Each cycle breaks in its own unique way, and I may be barking up the wrong tree. Regardless I'm keeping a watchful eye on MSTR as I think everyone should be doing.
I get it. Watch their October earnings call. I think it’s worthwhile to understand what they are doing. It’s a low lift if you already understand bitcoin.
Why no proof of reserves?
If El Salvador can do it…
ES owns like 20 bitcoin. That aside, the bitcoin of ES is owned publicly owned by the people. MSTRs is owned by the shareholders. 99.9% of the shareholders are indifferent about POR at this time.
Exactly … which means they’re an attack vector to bitcoin.
Dude, I support EVERYTHING Saylor says, his strategy is 100% on point…it is a speculative attack on fiat financial markets and I LOVE to see it.
I am simply saying that because he “never” intends to sell the vast majority of the coins he is stacking, that is literally the perfect foundation for his custodians to FRACTIONAL RESERVE the mstr bitcoins. That’s not a negotiable like “nah, they won’t do that…” that’s a 100% the custodians are absolutely wanting to do that.
Show me the incentive and I’ll tell you the outcome. COIN is fractional reserve-ing MSTR’s Bitcoin. That’s putting downward pressure on spot Bitcoin’s price. The larger the entities are that get into the game, the easier it will be to fractional reserve the Bitcoin.
Eventually this comes home to roost. 2 years from now? 200 years from now? Fractional reserving won’t work with a 100% scarce asset. If Saylor is a “true bitcoiner” he should be providing proof of reserves on-chain.
Saylor knows the addresses and he can verify the bitcoin is there. Coinbase of Fidelity can’t sell or lend that bitcoin without MicroStrategy knowing about it. The custodians don’t know when MSTR will choose to move their bitcoin to another custodian. We don’t know the intricacies of their security protocols on both sides. Speculating about it being paper bitcoin is unproductive. I’m fine with people advocating for proof of reserves if they want, but the fud is unnecessary.
