GM
The prolonged & brutal bear market isn't starting in 2026.
2025 was a year of consolidation & accumulation.
Welcome to the SuPerCycLe.
Be humble or be humbled.
I am persistently being shown to be patient.
💚🫂
Discussion
GM 😘
I agree with the patient part. I do not share your optimism for next year in terms of price action.
That's ok
If you're patient, you've got your bases covered & can be pleasantly surprised with what unfolds.
To be clear, the SuPerCycLe is not going to be that exciting for most people.
So you think we just turn into the S&P and slow grind to Valhalla? Dunno we nuked 30% in a month I don’t think we’re out on easy street yet. More pain ahead for the over leveraged and over allocated.
No I think Bitcoin still has parabolic price discovery in store for 2026.
I think the bear markets up until this point have been driven by OGs dumping their bags onto retail. I think they started to do this in October which resulted in the 30% dump. As a net result institutions now have more bitcoin. I think institutions are using the widespread belief in these 4 year price cycles as a way to build even bigger positions.
As Saylor says, Bitcoin's killer app is digital credit. Institutions are going to be acquiring bitcoin capital & selling bitcoin backed credit. This is highly profitable in fiat terms & doesn't require bitcoin to be sold. The profit is in the balance sheet as unrealised (paper) gains but still hits the P&L.
Bitcoiners are currently selling their sats to intuitions & OG whales are currently relinquishing control of the price. It's not something I want or celebrate, it's just what I see happening. I don't want plebs selling more sats than they need to at a big discount.
🟢🟢🟢🟢 is still in play.
30 something percent dump v fiat
51% crash v gold
We are getting close to 2017 btc/gold peak prices
And when the sound money guys roll over their profits in 27/28, we really go green. Or we really go towards the end of fiat.
Sound money guys know that fiat is shit.
They've been struggling but right for 50 years. I imagine they'll want to make their lives better but I don't see them cashing it all in for fiat.
I see it playing out differently but we shall see. I think we are seeing a relief rally now after a big drop. Bulls give a push 98-108 before selling continues and price takes another nosedive. We crack MSTR cost basis and selling continues, fear goes up again and then we get some support in the low 70s high 60s where we get another rally slash chop before one last drop where finally have consolidation before the next bull cycle can begin.
Not all institutions are long only players they can make profits of bitcoin going down not just up. They will go with the trend. Right now it’s down and it will take a lot of demand to overcome the pressure.
Alternate possibility is the 4 year cycle continues but top happens at the very beginning of this next 4 year cycle.
Like last epoch?
I see a new ATH at least every 6 months.
If we get a period of 12 months without an ATH, the SuPerCycLe has been postponed.
🤙
Typical 4 year cycle people would say next top is 2029, meaning the next four year cycle starts 2026. So top could be in 2026 and then down for 3 years and then who knows from there.
Yeah I'm more of an epoch guy.
We're in epoch 5.
Yes fiat liquidity cycles impact bitcoin's purchasing power but I don't care. I think there's something bigger going on.
2026 has me worried… not long term but if these 4 were to cascade, we’re in for a long year.
-Consistent murmurs of war from the EU and the UN with Russia.
-An AI bubble is in full ribust form with NVDA at the forefront (Oracle, OpenAI, Dell, Coreweave etc)
-US is officially “printing” and not calling it printing but inflation is the real metric.
—China has been eyeballing Taiwan and their opportunity has never been better. (ie: we dont have missiles or rare earths to make more because we sent them all to Ukraine)
Those are the big ones but now we’re openly hostile with Venezuela.
…Powder keg.
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Yeah I agree there are a few things outside of Bitcoin that are of concern, particularly in the short term.
I think the incentive to accumulate bitcoin is immense under these conditions. I just don't think everyone involved sees it like that.
I also think there's a couple of positive curve balls for Bitcoin's price too.
USG using bitcoin to nominally reduce their debt via their strategic reserve & exporting USD via stable coins is still in play.
Strategy's digital credit play hasn't really found traction yet, but I think it will soon. Too big to fail banks are also incentivised to get onto this play.