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If I'm not mistaken (and I often am), we are entering the "crypto season" portion of the bull market.

Remember, proof of stake (PoS) crypto has nothing relevant to do with proof of work (PoW) Bitcoin, and has everything to do with the existing fiat system, from whence it came.

Fiat-brains and crypto bros are one and the same.

Both think that their system and products have intrinsic value and, correspondingly, both will use their waning purchasing power to drive up segments of their fiat/PoS crypto assets.

Let them.

They are speculating and gambling in a dying casino while we are building a better world for posterity.

Some of these assets will even outperforming bitcoin for a season.

That's okay.

Be content with your situation and keep helping those around you, who are still blinded and influenced by the fiat-brains.

Don't get in arguments or waste your time yelling at crypto bros.

Take responsibility and do the work. This is what adults do while the children play and goof off.

As nostr:nprofile1qqsqfjg4mth7uwp307nng3z2em3ep2pxnljczzezg8j7dhf58ha7ejgeyqy52 often says, "Stay humble and stack sats."

Relax. Stay focused. Build.

Bitcoin is better money for a better world.

Onward and upward.

GM.

The Stacker Monster 5mo ago 💬 1

hey nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgswaehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5qzpduedsvruqmd7fuq99zmszaaezct7kt3ke3p4p4lx45uxvs30uramc7k5h - doesn't altseason usually indicate we are getting close to the end of a cycle? i know we don't have many historical datapoints, but iirc there is usually some bleeding from bitcoin into the alts and maybe a final push upwards before everything tops out and the crash begins.

do you think this time is different in this regard?

i know you have a price target around 450k for this cycle, do you still believe in that given this new altseason beginning datapoint?

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Discussion

less 5mo ago 💬 3

Historically-speaking, yes, this could signal that we are nearing the end of the business cycle.

However, the confusing part of the current cycle (confusing to me, anyway) is the fact that ISM has been essentially sub-50 since 2022... that is, it hasn't even recovered yet.

I see two primary possibilities:

1. ISM has a very quick, sharp recovery to 55-60 in 2H 2025 and the bull market in risk assets crescendos, with bitcoin (and crypto) rising exponentially. If this happens $475k could still be in play in 4Q 2025... although this is increasingly unlikely.

2. The economic cycle extends into 1H 2026, at least, which could extend bitcoin's (and risk assets') bull market beyond the "expected" four-year cycle.

I think that the unusual business cycle--historically-speaking--is the primary explanation for the unusual price action for bitcoin so far in 2025. If the business cycle (as reflected in the ISM) remains relatively dampened and/or elongated, this will likely be reflected in the USD price action of bitcoin.

So... I am watching it with great interest.

Thomas 5mo ago 💬 1

Dr. Jeff, anyway you can help investors and HODLers with another YouTube Update for old times sake?

less 5mo ago 💬 1

I'm trying to unplug.

Thomas 5mo ago 💬 1

Completely understand :) - thank you for your wisdom these past few years - greatly appreciated 🙏

less 5mo ago

🍻

Hodl Onward 🔑 5mo ago

I think given your framework here some of the old cycle metrics like pi tops and 5x 200dma are probably still useful indicators. Would be incredibly disappointing if we topped without any of those heating up even slightly. Either Bitcoin is now boring for good due to Wall Street or the party really hasn't even begun yet.

Either way, all of this steady bullcrabbing for the last two years has led to a pretty good base. I'd be shocked if we ever saw sun $70k Bitcoin again

The Stacker Monster 5mo ago

Thanks for that, helpful to know where your head is at.

I could see a scenario playing out where we top out in Q4 this year (same timing as historical cycle tops) around 150-250 and then we just head on down for a year or so.

But I like your version much better!