Hilarious

Trying to quit social media altogether, but can't... cuz #nostr and... bored.

AMA

Just because it's inevitable does not mean that it's good.

My Three Burners Theory of #bitcoin bull market price action.

Burner #1: Liquidity

Current setting: Medium

Burner #2: Economy

Current setting: Low (but starting to rise? ... watch ISM data)

Burner #3: Leverage

Current setting: Low

OPINION:

We won't see an exponential move (ie, a "blow-off top") until all three burners are on High.

If I'm not mistaken (and I often am), we are entering the "crypto season" portion of the bull market.

Remember, proof of stake (PoS) crypto has nothing relevant to do with proof of work (PoW) Bitcoin, and has everything to do with the existing fiat system, from whence it came.

Fiat-brains and crypto bros are one and the same.

Both think that their system and products have intrinsic value and, correspondingly, both will use their waning purchasing power to drive up segments of their fiat/PoS crypto assets.

Let them.

They are speculating and gambling in a dying casino while we are building a better world for posterity.

Some of these assets will even outperforming bitcoin for a season.

That's okay.

Be content with your situation and keep helping those around you, who are still blinded and influenced by the fiat-brains.

Don't get in arguments or waste your time yelling at crypto bros.

Take responsibility and do the work. This is what adults do while the children play and goof off.

As nostr:nprofile1qqsqfjg4mth7uwp307nng3z2em3ep2pxnljczzezg8j7dhf58ha7ejgeyqy52 often says, "Stay humble and stack sats."

Relax. Stay focused. Build.

Bitcoin is better money for a better world.

Onward and upward.

GM.

I'm trying to unplug.

All in.

On bitcoin.

On marriage.

On family.

On faith.

On America.

The perfect life.

Historically-speaking, yes, this could signal that we are nearing the end of the business cycle.

However, the confusing part of the current cycle (confusing to me, anyway) is the fact that ISM has been essentially sub-50 since 2022... that is, it hasn't even recovered yet.

I see two primary possibilities:

1. ISM has a very quick, sharp recovery to 55-60 in 2H 2025 and the bull market in risk assets crescendos, with bitcoin (and crypto) rising exponentially. If this happens $475k could still be in play in 4Q 2025... although this is increasingly unlikely.

2. The economic cycle extends into 1H 2026, at least, which could extend bitcoin's (and risk assets') bull market beyond the "expected" four-year cycle.

I think that the unusual business cycle--historically-speaking--is the primary explanation for the unusual price action for bitcoin so far in 2025. If the business cycle (as reflected in the ISM) remains relatively dampened and/or elongated, this will likely be reflected in the USD price action of bitcoin.

So... I am watching it with great interest.

It would not surprise me to see the top for this cycle come in Q1 or even Q2 of 2026

This has been my default assumption for awhile now.

nevent1qqsy770mudyvhw995t99npc0277gzgfwavsxrtmgqltznkxv9ffh50spz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wc7vllkr

CONFESSION:

Today I came to the humorous, but accurate, realization that the only reason I spend any time on social media is that my IRL friends have little to no interest in investing, macroeconomics, and even Bitcoin.

Related, the urge to unplug and permanently touch grass is incessant for me now that I am not trying to grow my business and brand.

GM. ☕️

Disinflation is over.

The US likely hit the low point of (CPI) for the year.

Oil prices have likely bottomed and should meander higher from here.

This also means that the chance of deflationary recession is almost zero for the foreseeable future.

The US economy should rev higher and economic indicators will likely surprise to the upside.

New ATHs (and more) likely for #bitcoin in the near future.

Onward and upward.

UPDATE:

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 vs 49.8 (forecast) and 49.2 (previous)

ISM Manufacturing New Orders: 55.1 vs 52.1 (previous)

Almost no one is talking about the reemergence of the US manufacturing sector from its ~2.5 year period of contraction.

Life is about to get (much) cheaper in #Bitcoin terms over the coming quarters, I suspect. 👀

#macro

nostr:note186hutwn97u68sscd0v742dznyu58nelnsz3mn7ww6ut7ftkhlxdsul5u4s

Nah. Mainly because I’m not really retired. I just don’t work for others anymore. Meaning no clients or bosses. I spend my time searching for interesting market opportunities where I think I can outperform Bitcoin. This can be an angel investment in a bitcoin startup, or a public market opportunity like MSTR. One way or another though I always find a way to slightly outperform each year. So I end up making more money than when I owned a business.

I also spend a lot of time engaged with the community on social audio apps as I go about my day. Podcasts etc… I kind of have the ability to dip in and out as some kind of “influencer” or whatever the fuck I am lol

And then lastly I have four children and I spend a good part of each day attending to them and the family. Driving to school and activities, spending quality time, reading books etc…

So all in all life is very full and I’m fortunate to be in the position where I choose what I do with my time rather than having it dictated to me by someone else.

Are you new here?

I am trying to be more tolerant but you’re making it hard.

“All Christians must beware of the lure of possessions and the temptation to protect one’s physical existence at the expense of one’s eternal destiny.”

{Blomberg, Neither Poverty Nor Riches, 127-128}

During bull markets, I am more:

1. Prone to forget that I am a pilgrim on my way home

2. Tempted to secure a materially better, more comfortable life

Motivation matters.

When I forget who I am in Christ, good desires become twisted into idolatrous ones. As NGU, I am tempted to forget that I am utterly dependent on God and am called to steward his resources for his mission and glory.

I have a low time preference, and I suspect many of you do, too. But why are we stacking? Motivation matters.

Praying that the Lord would guard our hearts and minds in Christ Jesus in 2025.

It did.

Punishment for your bearish sentiment. Be better. Bullish only.

Although that would have been a great entry price so maybe it is bullish.

Now I’m confused. 🤔

GM #nostr family.

I am writing my private quarterly memo for my hedge fund clients today.

Notable 2024 performances:

4. S&P 500 total return (including dividends): +25.02%

3. #Gold: +27.2%

2. #Bitcoin: +121.0%

1. Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund (unaudited): +194.8%

Here's to a solid 2025 for Bitcoiners and freedom lovers across the board!

** (Not a solicitation to invest. The fund is currently closed to new investors, who must be Qualified Clients.) **

Actually, my target for 2025 was/is $10,000 MSTR (pre-split), which is $1,000 post-split.

No change. Hopefully my guess is well short of the actual price performance.

Another guess is that MSTR will peak before BTC does.

And I still maintain my 2025 price top guess of $475k for bitcoin.

All just guesses... take each with a grain of salt.

Fiat monetary debasement is gaining traction, as reflected in the fiat price of the world’s only neutral energy money: #Bitcoin.

I expect this trend to continue—and actually accelerate—in the coming 12-14 months.

Global M2 monetary supply is already starting to increase again.

Three examples of how:

- Lower interest rates literally translate immediately into lower variable/short term debt payments (e.g., HELOCs, credit card loans, small business loans), meaning higher cash savings for individuals and businesses... that is, higher M2.

- A weaker US dollar means better foreign currency exchange rates, and easier (US denominated) debt repayments around the world... increasing M2.

- Economic growth means more bank lending and growth of M2.

If there is any risk for investors in the markets today, it's the risk of sitting on the sidelines--waiting for the terrible and *inevitable* #recession, constantly heralded by Doom and Gloomers--while risk assets and, especially, #bitcoin melt faces in 2025.

With a 12-14 month outlook, I continue to think that this is a terrible time to be overly bearish or conservative.

#macro

#investing

🐂

It's been a minute...

So I'm thinking of opening a new (and probably short) Doom and Gloom Room today over on Clubhouse, for anyone interested in:

- macro

- Bitcoin

- bonds

- stonks

- living well

- investing wisely

As usual, I am not selling anything and the room probably won't be very interesting.

Any interest?

Are you forecasting $MSTR to reach to $3350 next year? 🤔

An update on *liquidity* flows...

OBSERVATION #1: US NET LIQUIDITY (top half of chart) continues to be generally rangebound (chopping sideways: crab-like) since all the way back in 2021!

OPINION #1: US-based risk assets tend to follow US net liquidity over time. Based on this data, I would continue to expect choppy sideways (crab-like) price action for US mid cap, small cap, and micro cap stocks until the trend changes. -- If these equities make overly bearish or overly bullish moves in the short-term, one could consider making a short-term contrarian trade. 🦀

OBSERVATION #2: GLOBAL M2 MONEY SUPPLY (bottom half of chart) has officially broken out to the upside of its three-year choppy sideways range, and is resuming its longer term trend ever up-and-to-the-right. This longer term trend will continue until the dollar dies (decades from now).

OPINION #2: In the near-term, this resumption of increasing global M2 money supply is bullish for global assets... currently including megacap technology stocks and, of course, bitcoin. Based on past precedent, I continue to expect weak bitcoin price action throughout the month of August, giving HODLers a beautiful opportunity to stack relatively cheap sats in the setting of rising global M2. -- I do not believe this bargain will go unnoticed for much longer, with the next major bitcoin bull market beginning sometime between September and December of 2024, and probably lasting until 4Q of 2025.

Hope this helps. Cheers #nostr friends.