Subnostr

Yeah it’s also a utopian ideal, it would only work if ppl were perfect . They are not

Pre etf btc and post etf btc are different worlds too . It grew up. Now order matters. The Wild West scam days are over. Sam killed them lol

I'm curious as to what do you prefer between MSTR and a BTC ETF?

Mstr is basically a leveraged etf to me with a bit of operational risk . I have a tiny bit of mstr, no etf. But I’m not the target market for the ETFs

I hold a bit of Mstr as a cash instrument in my tax free savings account. Instead of selling BTC in case of an emergency, I can sell Mstr stocks instead and not have to pay taxes on it.

I just have to put more thought into whether I'd rather that money being placed in a BTC ETF or to keep it in Mstr.

ETF is less upside but also less downside , it’s up to you . I’d rock mstr lol

That's clever. I've considered MSTR to create a LOC to do the same thing, use MSTR-backed LOC as an emergency fund of sorts. Seems like a good idea. But you'd want like 3-5x overcollateralization due to volatility.

If you didn't want to self custody, you'd probably want 5-10% MSTR AT THE MOST and rest in FBTC. I like that Fidelity self custodies. You could do less than that in MSTR, as uncle rand0 said, because of operational and leverage risk. But it also has a chance to outperform ₿.

If you wanted to quantify that, you'd want to figure out the risk of bankruptcy and figure out the outperformance and create a model to optimize the ideal % using a model like Kelly Criteria

For example, I ran the Kelly criteria assuming 5% MSTR outperformance and 2% bankruptcy risk and got an optimal allocation of 58%.

But that's kind of a GIGO problem. Who knows outperformance and bankruptcy risk. I think the smarter thing would be to maximize income to buy more bitcoin rather than try to outperform btc. FWIW I own 1-2% MSTR for shits and giggles

I've been playing around with the thought of splitting 50/50 between Mstr and an ETF. The one I prefer, even if the frees are slightly higher, is FBT, because as you said, they custody on their own.

Holding any other ETF plus MSTR adds risk, if they all hold it at Coinbase.

ALLLLL models break if BTC fails. If BTC succeeds you could throw a dart at either & look like a genius.

My bet. BTC succeeds so fuckin hard that faces melt onto the sidewalks & tears of no-coiners taste like salty heaven.

Yeah, if BTC fails, I'm fucked, considering that's all I hold (minus my business and house). But the probabilities of failure are decreasing week by week.

I laugh when people say Bitcoin is risky. It's a lot riskier not to have any.

Here the thing. It already won. Nobody told the normies but this is a mathematical fact.

Absolutely. Let the orange pillers shake out. Who cares

I look at the Canadian bond market almost everyday. It's a trainwreck waiting to happen. I wouldn't feel safe holding any loonies. It's just math.

Btc is in the big leagues now. These are big boy games. It will always do the opposite of what everyone thinks. They are trying to shake out the poors before rates cut in two weeks

👆👆it truly is in the big leagues now. Bigger leagues than most could comprehend. 🫡

Anyone who doesn't get it and who don't have conviction will get shaken out. Right before the rocket takes off too. Kinda sad, but oh well.

Not sad. Weak hands are needed. The weaker the hands, the stronger the bull.

"the weaker the hands, the stronger the bull". I like that 🚀

Foundations are built on weak hands.

SuiGenerisJohn 1y ago

Today I fell asleep in my office chair with my hands in my jean pockets and almost fell onto my face, so can confirm.

Yup the floor gets stronger and stronger everytime these idiots sell and it ends up in hands with testosterone

Brains > testosterone

Both would be nice lol

Brains, brawns & belief

Melting ice cube is a fantastic analogy.

Imagine making it this far only to get shaken out right before it rips bc you fell for the fud from the ops and the fiat finance games. This is what they always do. They aren’t going to be like okay rand0 here it comes make sure you don’t sell bc it’s going to take off soon, this is just us trying to lower our average cost.

MSTR > ETF IMO.

If you have to do it because IRA, 401K etc. Otherwise buying BTC is always best.

ETF’s have outflows. MSTR has inflows only & a long term HODL strategy driven by Saylor.

That inflows/outflows is a good point.

I prefer to just buy BTC, but I like to hold a bit in cash, in case shit happens. The TFSA gives me the advantage of not having to pay capitals gains if I sell, so I might as well use it for that purpose.

If the TFSA option wasn't there, I'd just hold BTC on its own.

Wealthy people love to avoid taxes. MSTR allows them to borrow as well against the stock to avoid tax. Huge.

stache 1y ago

So peepl suk and we need strong leaders to keep peepl from sukin🤔

But our leaders will be peepl or a system created by peepl…but peepl suk🤔

Maybe we should just form a tribe the size of Dunbar’s number…but then peepl that suk will invade us…and that will suk

Wait…a benevolent Monarch…but no his progeny will be peepl and at some point they will suk

🤔💡 ahh… a democratic republic “if u can hang onto it ma’am”… well that worked for a while but…

Ur not wrong and I know I’m being snarky…but all forms of govts/leadership are peepl and can and as history has shown likely will be corrupted (suk)

Also all forms of govt require compliance (willing is preferable)

…to the extent leaders provide value in ur life they are tolerated and sometimes even respected and beloved…but what happens when life becomes intolerable for the masses🤔

Not all people are the same. Isn't it interesting that power attracts sociopaths? What if sociopathy is a useful collective trait because it allows someone to become an effective leader? If you had a group without any sociopathy, they would succumb to a group whose leader was a sociopath

stache 1y ago

🤔…well damn if that ain’t an interesting take😳

It’s been a while since I’ve thought much about psychology (med school 30-35 years ago) and it’s a SOFT science with what seems like continously shifting definitions and diagnoses…but…

Best I recall (and I’m prolly wrong on a lot of this) most psychological/psychiatric diseases fall into spectrum ranging from neuroses to full blown psychoses.

For example full blown bipolar folks have unbridled energy and delusions of grandeur on the high side and crippling, disabling depression on the low side but the lesser (nuerotic) side of the spectrum is hypomania (some say Thomas Jefferson and Leonardo da Vinci had this condition). Many with hypomania gravitate to teaching and make incredible teachers, coaches, preachers and leaders.

Sociopaths on the other hand lack empathy for the victims or consequences of their actions. In the psycopathic side of the spectrum they may become serial killers. In the nueropathic side they may well gravitate to politics or leadership (like CEO’s, coaches, teachers, preachers) but because they lack empathy they are less likely to be effective…and when effective more likely to be tyrants🤔

But I agree one hundred percent that some psychological disorders result in hyper performers in certain circumstances…but my preference would be to keep sociopaths out our govt

Jus one idgits opinion🤷🏽‍♂️