https://blossom.primal.net/fa311174077108d87aeddfd65c9afcdc533d7f8359b54667b0a30df96b32ee7f.mp4
Discussion
Meth Pompliano >
Efficient market denominated in USD 💀 ⚰️, the slow awakening to BTC unit of account begins.
I will not replay this clip again. Already wasted hours on this one
bet you can hear it without clicking 😂
we could have nice things if people where not this stupid
This f'n guy....
This fuck face...
He is not wrong
Recency bias is blinding people to what’s unfolding
people say the same thing every cycle and have always been wrong but hopefully you are right this time
With the right time preference we are never in a bear market 😉 🐂
We will crash for sure
What %
A guess.... 40-60% maybe 70% but that would depend on how high we go
I don’t see anything over 50%
They new buyers are not retail investors that will panic sell or shave some off the top to buy a lambo. Corporations will keep buying until retail is out of coins to sell.
I also don’t think we will go past 220k unless the US government announces they started actively buying
So sell stock in the BTC companies at those kind of levels?
It’s tricky because stocks don’t always pump or peak when Bitcoin pumps/peaks.
Best to buy what you want to hold medium to long term. You get the big gains in BTC terms when you hold long term, as we have seen with MSTR absolutely crushing BTC since 2020.
Keep in mind that leveraged institutions like hedge funds get margin called all the time. Most sell their treasuries, liquid assets, stocks, gold, and now Bitcoin imagine when they hold much more Bitcoin and need to sell it to cover their gambling mistakes
Oooof
I see reasons to suspect bear markets are a thing of the past. I also see a potential for a mstr margin call.
Buy sats, wait and see.
There is zero chance there aren't bear markets. That would be the first time in any asset or commodity or money in the history of the world. Perhaps not 80%, but there will be a deleveraging and then some somewhere.
Even those are often made worse by meddling.
Sure slower and faster economic periods exist. 80% crash like clockwork isn't sustainable to build a global economy around.
Yeah, you can no true Scotsman all day. At some point what we all think of as a bitcoin bear has to end or we will fail.
I don't see why it has to end? Did oil fail? Look at the past 80 years in oil prices. It looks like Bitcoin, 😂
Oil didn't have alternatives that 90+% of people think work better to overthrow during that time.
Sorry, I'm not sure I follow. What does an alternative have to do with anything? There is no alternative to Bitcoin, nor oil, so I'm confused.
If not oil, Then look at copper, or gold, or silicone, or any currency against another. Look at stocks and indexes and funds, and so forth. There are always bear markets. Sometimes supply and demand of a good, products, money supply, or even new supply, etc ..
Captured market which Bitcoin doesn't have. Far easier to use dollars than to give up oil even today.
All of those numbers are markets manipulated by subsidies measured against a ruler that keeps changing length.
There really is nothing like Bitcoin. It should in theory behave like a measure of total human productivity, but that means different movements against different products just like steaks went up while TVs went down against the dollar.
Perhaps in 100 years, but certainly not in my lifetime.
I have mad respect for your transparency and honesty, so this question comes from a place of genuine curiosity… if history keeps repeating, do you ever sell, sit things out, and buy back in? Not trading, or calling the top, simply playing defense with your savings over a 9-12 month period? Bitcoin purity tests aside, it seems rational.
nope because i would rather weather a bear market than time the market wrong
most who try to time the market get rekt
Right, and you’ve been remarkably consistent in your advice over the years. Those who followed it have done well with no need to second guess themselves. If you can stomach the volatility, you end up with a different kind of certainty.
On the other hand statements like this, while carrying risk, also seem to be historically true: “If you believe Bitcoin’s cycles revolve around halving events, then you should begin to unwind your position 350-525 days after a halving, and scale back in about a year after a clear price peak.”
I’m not offering (or seeking) trading advice… it’s just an interesting paradox that blends math, psychology, and philosophy. Almost a Prisoner’s Dilemma of sorts, which is probably why consistency pays. Stay humble, stack sats becomes a self-organizing principle.
Ok, brain has been recalibrated. Thanks for being an accountability partner, whether you asked for it or not. 😄
- IBIT is Blackrock’s most profitable ETF
- Strategy has 4 ATMs and a levered ratio of 12%
- Europe and Asia have access to LBEs like Metaplanet that have virtually no debt
- FASB is in effect
- Regulations have changed and now Banks can custody Bitcoin
- The US government has a path for BTC adoption with the SBR
Hard to see a prolonged bear market under these conditions any time soon. The future is uncertain, but we forecast based on what we can see. I see a ton of demand from entities that have no intention of selling. A corporation is not going to shave some off the top to pay for a family vacation… retail is not here this time, and that changes the calculus.
I really hate that he and I share the same planet
martybentsupercyclememe.jpg
He is such an idiot
BlOcKfI
This thinking leads us to a bear market worse than 2008
Expert… 🤦♂️
Yes, because commodities markets, futures markets, traffic, and all markets never have prolonged bear markets. What a clown.
bro, just be humble and get on the rocketship 🚀 😂
I throw up a little in my mouth when I hear the sound of Pomp’s voice just like I do when I hear the word “crypto”
Bang bang.
Biggest clown. I hate that some influencers still give him a platform.
Where have I seen this before lmao