I think my issue with bitcoin maximalism is that they push the idea that bitcoin is inevitable and number go up is certain.
I understand the arguments for bitcoin very well. I am a big fan of Austrian economic thinking.
But nothing is certain or inevitable.
CBDCs could be rolled out tomorrow across the world and most people would blindly accept them in the event of some emergency. Just like how most people room the Covid vax.
*took the Covid vax
Before Covid I would have said there's no way people will accept CBCDs. Now, though, I think most people would think they're a good thing.
A friend of mine is anti-cash because he doesn't like that people can dodge paying tax.
My conviction is so great that I am 100% in #bitcoin
I am just 🤏 this far away from maxi, and what keeps me from it is that I don't pretend to know what Bitcoin will do or if it might be painted in bad enough light that it doesn't get adopted by my culture.
Worst case for Bitcoin is a gold-backed currency that does away with the FED, and that wouldn't be a bad alternative. It just needs to be run by the states, not the federal gov't.
Your worst case still seems pretty optimistic for me.
Definitely would agree with you on that. That’s why education is vitally important to Bitcoin’s success
Education and continuous build out of useful tools. Sound money is too intangible to compel people to switch, permissionles and friction reduced value transfer can draw people in though
Bitcoins bad UX is one of the key frictions for adoption for sure.
I’ve heard it argued that the bad UX of bitcoin can be thought of as a feature in that it makes you have to pause and consider the value of what you’re holding and what you want to spend.
Yeh trade offs for sure for decentralised proof of work protocol.
But ux can always be improve upon.
Like imagine you could use self custodial lightning as easy as using wallet of satoshi.
That would be a game changer.
Even if the number of Bitcoiners stay the same they’re still gonna store their value in it while the new supply shrinks to nothing. People are gonna watch them win while they sit on the couch. Gold backed currencies won’t go up in value, they’ll be slightly better at keeping it. And the 4 year cycles are dynamite loads. I can’t see the mathematics have it any other way.
I think it’s something like $1 billion of bitcoin needs to be bough every month to keep up with miners dumping btc on the market.
Demand needs to keep increasing for price and adoption to go up.
That’s true, but every 4 years, the stacking per month in dollar terms could stay the same (demand), while the supply shrinks away. What is that going to do to demand? The math is hard to reason away.
It could or could not. Nobody knows. My point stands nothing is certain or inevitable.
I get it, but the mathematics involved are pretty rock solid here. Especially considering that there are no hard mathematics anywhere else in the financial world. It’s hard for me to say it’s not certain or that it’s not inevitable. But I do get it.
The maths adds up. Not disagreeing with you their.
But the issue is men and women have emotions and do behave in rational ways. Theres many examples that show humans behave irrationally.
*dont behave rationally.
I agree with most of what you are saying but I think you (and not gonna lie, probably many other maxis too) dont understand why the confidence may be warranted.
I do not disagree in the least that humans are irrational and the markets will always reflect this. This is what creates volatility.
In the markets there are always general trends. And as you increase the time scale, that in turn smooths out the volatility. As your time scale approaches ∞ you are eventually left with a clearly defined trend line.
Most bitcoiners measure the success of bitcoin on a generational time scale. So what you may see as overconfidence, is simply the ability for a short enough time preference strategy to minimize the risk to a point where the outcome is certain enough that it warrants an all-in bet based on historical trends and fundamental analysis on the legacy financial markets, the state of worldwide economics, global politics, privacy, technological trends, and math.
I guess my note was aimed at bitcoiners who have overconfidence and certainty in an outcome of the number go up thesis.
I want to see bitcoin adopted by the normies. I just don’t put all my eggs in one basket. It’s sensible risk management.
Sensibility is similar to beauty in that it is in the eye of the beholder.
For most people and certainly most normies, I'd say their risk tolerance is going to be relatively low. By having a low risk tolerance you are minimizing your chance of failure but you are also proportionally limiting your chances of success. It is the very definition of median. And in a world where a few rich people have more wealth than the majority of the world and rampant fiat value debasement, even the median is guaranteed to fall well below average.
This is a major reason why most cannot succeed. If one is always taking a low risk approach to life how can they reasonably expect the outcome to be above average?
In this world, if you take no risks you are guaranteeing your wealth to fall below median and on a generational timescale, eventually approach zero.
By putting all your eggs in the bitcoin basket, the risk reward is skewed unbelievably in the favorable side. With that lens, anything but all-in strategy on bitcoin is sub optimal risk management.
All we can do is pay attention and act with new information, but I’m siding with mathematics instead of emotions, politics, etc
I couldn't disagree more. In a protocol designed for numbers go up. The numbers will go fucking up. The man of faith doesn't even understand how the creator works lol.
You are a prime example of my point.
Overconfident and too certain on the number going only up outcome.
All I am saying is there is a probability that bitcoin number doesnt go up. I.e. use risk management.
Aside from tools & capital for basic productivity & survival, Bitcoin is really the only hope. I'm okay with being all in on the only path that can prevent a total nightmare dystopia.
I agree mostly.
However, humans are not rational creatures. Most people will get a covid jab so they can keep their job or go on vacation.
You just haven't seen the future yet ,stuck in the old paradigm like most. Otherwise you won't be say such dumb shit like this .
Whether people are stupid or irrational doesn't seem to matter a whole lot. Am I supposed to act dumber & trap myself too? How exactly should I modify my plans?
Bitcoin works at any price, it is valuable because it works in defiance of all sorts of idiotic policy. And so far it appears that the countries which ban it end up with the highest adoption rates.
There are multiple trends going in our favor. Irreversable costs associated with using AI are not compatible with reversible payment systems, so the AI companies who switch to bitcoin first will be most successful. For some reason payment processors seem to be attacking online sex work, which drives them to Bitcoin (porn has been the deciding factor in many technological battles). Many small countries can see that their dependence on foreign currency is a trap so they are paying close attention to Bitcoin. Banks are also bleeding money due to credit card fraud at an accelerating rate because AI makes all sorts of attacks possible at a massive scale. There are a whole lot of people who are just blindly obedient, & those people are a serious risk in a Soviet like environment, but there is also a significant portion of the population that woke up thanks to covid & there is an amazing amount of power in an intolerant minority.
I am not saying btc doesn’t work and has purpose. What I am doubting is the thesis btc number go up thesis.
We keep saying we are early, “we are early!?!”
Love this.
Great to see a level of openness and lack of certainty. 👏👏👏
Supply and demand.
When the supply gets cut in half, and if demand goes up, the price will go up no doubt.
#bitcoin will go up 🤙🏻
As a simple woodworker:
To make a table, I buy materials, work, make X profit.
50 years from now: I buy materials, work, and both inputs should be smaller inputs because WE HUMANS PROGRESS.
I'm by far not the most read on the subject. There are others with much more extensive understanding then I.
But my rationale is as follows...
If I want to save today's earnings for a future spend. Say 10-20 years down the road.
As of the information we all have available to us today. Do I save in fiat or BTC?
True, nothing but death and taxes are a certainty.
But given the above proposition and the resources available to us today. I opted to go with BTC.
I also have fiat assets like my home. But having a savings account with a bank in today's environment...I can't justify it.
The biggest risk to Bitcoin is ignorant bitcoiners blocking necessary upgraded because they fall for a psyop that it's not needed.
I'm very confident in Bitcoin, but I still manage my risk, mainly so I can think soberly about it and not get too high on hopium.
