What I'm watching... đź‘€

Some anti-bear porn.

A provocative chart from Yardeni Research, suggesting that (if history repeats) we may see ongoing and increasing annual gains in the S&P 500 (and related assets) through the rest of the 2020s.

This flies in the face of the myriad #recessionistas, who have been wrong about an IMMINENT RECESSION since 2020.

My generally rosy #macro outlook remains that we will not see a full-fledged recession in the United States for the foreseeable future.

If conditions change, so too will my outlook for risk assets.

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Discussion

Thanks Jeff, hard to tell what’s going on lately with all the noise

one thing that concerns me with equities right now is how highly concentrated the U.S. indexes are and within that cohort the valuations are kinda ridiculous. How do you reconcile that? Does higher M2 growth justify 40+ PEs for a mega cap? Especially Apple who seems to be unable to significantly grow revenue. I just don’t see much upside but I also don’t run a hedge fund for a living. interested to hear what you think

Thoughts?

2023 wasn’t really a year of hard times and low prices in the equity market. Pretty sure S&P was like +29%

If a recession falls in a forest & no one is around to hear it, did it really even happen?

You put out some of the highest signal content. Thanks so much.

Huge fan of anti-bear porn

How does the DXY drop? Lower fed rates mainly?

Jawboning by Trump and his administration, for starters.

Then, multiple creative measures to increase dollar liquidity around the world.

That’s what I want to hear! So put my head in the sand for 5 more years. Will do!

It's hard to have a recession when the denominator (USD) is being constantly inflated.

How does one approach recession? I don't feel comfortable holding cash but I also feel recession hurts btc.