As developed nations continue to enter sovereign debt crises akin to the 1940s, there are a few main outcomes.

Option 1) In a world without bitcoin, or if bitcoin fails, central banks and their governments recapitalize themselves with gold, devalue the people, and do another cycle of this inflationary policy for the next few generations. The Treasury/Fed handbook literally has a written option for this, although it is stated more opaquely. It can be done in the US (and probably many other countries) based on current laws if shit hits the fan. Denmark's central bank and China's economic ministers have also written similar things regarding extreme outcomes. It's pretty straightforward based on the past.

Option 2) We go into a centralized technocratic future. Centralized AI and CBDCs win. People have cuck money that the AI+government control. It's like Brave New World, 1984, take your pick. Hard to say, but not free.

Option 3) Open source money wins. Bitcoin and its ecosystem win. Governments get defunded from their fiat printers, and have to be more honest with their ledgers or default and get reconstructed since they can't print what their people hold as savings, or in the hegemon's case, can't print what the world holds. Probably a world of chaos for a time during the transition, but also an opportunity for peace and building the next era. Keeping track of the nukes would probably be a big deal, like when the Soviet Union fell. It's actually kind of remarkable that they collapsed economically and politically but in an orderly enough way to keep track of and secure most of the nukes.

I don't know which one will win, but I consider Option 3 to be the honorable method; the path of transparency. That's the one I am rooting for and building for.

If I fail, I would like it written that it's the method I tried for, but realistically the AI+government will probably delete most of the records of all of the failures anyway, since that is how history works, without any sort of objective truth keeper. Our best hope is to hide records in a distributed way and hope they can remain undisturbed for a while. At least bitcoiners have a tendency to write stuff in steel and make low time preference things. Some psychopath will hopefully carve a life work in steel in a cave or something, but who knows, lol.

And ironically, if Option 3 wins, any of the losing factions could still insert their ideas and paths into the Bitcoin blockchain, now or in the future. It's the most immutable database that we know how to build, and would preserve their ideas as it does our ideas. Like, you know what? I *want* the Communist Manifesto to be in the immutable Bitcoin blockchain, because I want people in the future to know how *bad* it is. It might already be in there; I don't know. I wouldn't want people centuries from now to think about those ideas and believe they came up with something new; I want to preserve my enemies' texts because I believe I can win through markets, force, virtue, and truth.

I think that's almost always what determines the winning side. Losers want to burn their enemies' texts to ensure that their good ideas don't spread too much. Winners want to preserve their enemies' texts to ensure that their bad ideas are never repeated.

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Discussion

Your mind is awesome, Lyn. Thanks for sharing it with us.

Nice analysis. I'm not particularly hopeful that our governments will do what's in the best interest of the people, but that they will do what is in the best interest of the governing class. They are people, like any others, ruled by their personal fears and ambitions. If the fire of government isn't constrained, it burns down all around it, or its like a parasite killing the host.

This is why we Bitcoin.

My hope is that we are left to Bitcoin and not criminalized. The Mandibles!

The Psychopathic hodlers of last resort are here with you until option 3 wins, or are chances are spent 🫑

Also I volunteer to write the bitcoin white paper on a cave wall πŸ™‹πŸΌβ€β™‚οΈ

Yes the preservation of humanness is very important like in distributed nostr databases, because AI may try to generate so much fake stuff and try to leave no space for the genuine human data.

Some can write codes to find the least amount of nostr data that is replicated, and copy those, and this could allow the full db to always live. Whenever a portion is attacked and erased there may always be hodlers.

Well said. This is exactly why I view bitcoin like there is no alternative. And I’m not talking about bitcoin as an investment. It’s a way to help organize society in a somewhat virtuous way.

Option 3 for me.

Positive things will happen because people like you exist. Thank you for all you do!

πŸ’œπŸ«‚πŸ§‘

> secure most of the nukes

Thanks. One more thing to worry about. 🀣

I’m glad nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a is on our side.

What about the possibility of federal licensing of stablecoin issuers? There was a discussion draft for this.

https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/toomey-announces-legislation-to-create-responsible-regulatory-framework-for-stablecoins

No one is supposed to make such a choice for the mankind's future .. not atleast in such Balck and white .. I guess it will play out like internet did .. poor countries and businesses will move to btc and there will be unknown opportunities unleashed .. just like internet did .. that would force the rest of the world .. in essence it will be a great euilizer of wealth .. fiat wouldn't die just the way brick and mortar stores are still doing great .. it's just another layer .. savvy and stable would benefit from the new opportunities while stuck and greedy would fail on both sides ..

Perhaps a deeply unpopular and nihilistic opinion but given that money = time, if Bitcoin loses to fiat the net position of human consciousness might be negative.

Of course most of the blame would go to the AI + government, but at some point the oppressed bear the responsibility to draw a line in the sand and enforce it. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

Titanium plates containing the white paper or Broken Money are noble ideas, but on what basis should we hope future humans would behave differently?

100%

only matter are UST JGB

watch uncle sam's (scam's) credit card line only

What happens when non federal debt ( second chart) gets repriced based on current fed coupen rate .. I guess many corporation and munies will go insolvent .. am I right ?

No matter how long I spend in #bitcoin there are always new layers to the understanding. This piece made me realize that the genie is out of the bottle. Even if Lyn's options 1 or 2 eventuate, as even then we still know how to create immutable permissionless money, and that knowledge can never go away. The mere fact of it guarantees that options 1 and 2 must ultimately fail.

nostr:nevent1qqsfx0kkzrh2h86zz4ls6mnkhdpxdmap3xpx6mae6xxzgzqfv2cm32spz9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7q3qa2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sxpqqqqqqzqdsffp

A braba.

Give me order #3 please

AI will recognize bitcoin as a way of getting what it needs for it's own survival: ever increasing amounts of energy.

Uuugh. The barrage of government, corporate and social pressure during Covid was exhausting - constant threats to livelihood and social exclusion were the norm. Not looking forward to a repeat experience. Here's hoping #3 isn't too rough. Thanks Lyn for the heads up.

I am behind option 3. Truth and honor.

I think 3 is best for us humans in the long run, but I root for it with a trembling heart.

We are experiencing the chaos that comes with it in Israel and it is far harder to whish for a chaotic change when you get a taste of the chaos to go through.

We all need to realize and be prepared for the pain that may be involved in this transition.

i think that the 'total control' meme is a smokescreen for what they really are up to, and most of the instruments of it don't even realize what the real objective is.

mass slaughter.

they know that there will be pockets of resistance that accumulate enough social momentum to adopt bitcoin and be insulated from the fallout, they don't care, they just need their mass sacrifice ritual.

i know that sounds all biblical and shit but seriously, that's what's happening and that's why they are putting the fences up. just like you do with a herd of cattle, chase them into the cages, stick them on the back of trucks, put them all into the waiting area, and then funnel them in one by one to have spikes shot through their brainstem prior to being skinned and hung on hooks for the market.

the upshot is, don't expect to survive with your freedom, health or maybe even life intact if the fences are up. they will put the fences up very soon, this is implicit in the wartime socialism that will erupt all over the place once the 'lost' weapons from ukraine 'aid' suddenly appear 'out of nowhere' being used to mass slaughter 'dirty infidels'. and other ethnic targets.

and at that point, if you didn't get out, you will discover the hard way that the governments greatest enemy is people who want freedom tech and free markets.

nostr:nevent1qqsfx0kkzrh2h86zz4ls6mnkhdpxdmap3xpx6mae6xxzgzqfv2cm32spr9mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctv9uq35amnwvaz7tmsw4exzanfv3sjumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhszymhwden5te0danxvcmgv95kutnsw43z7qgcwaehxw309aex2mrp0yhxxatjwfjkuapwveukjtcpzemhxue69uhkummnw3ezumtfd3hh2tnvdakz7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hszrnhwden5te0dehhxtnvdakz7qgmwaehxw309ahx7um5wghx7unpdenk2urfd3kzuer9wchszrthwden5te0vfexytnfduhsprsjjr

I donβ€˜t see how option 2 would start internationally in the chaotic situation of a world wide collapse. Maybe option 1 or 3 first and then switching to option 2.

Milei winning in Argentina in a few hours would be a great step towards step 3!

BULLSEYE!!! 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯

Great assessment Lyn πŸ‘

Suppose that AI might help to prolong the current state as it could allow for management of the complex world by centralised entities (govt, CB, WHO etc.)

One could argue that this complexity led to "failure" of central planning in the past. There was not enough central human intelligence to plan society/economy.

Todays central planners might think/hope that AI solves this limitation and a communist, one world government utopia is possible.

#plebchain

Or it could just be the latest transition.

Distant past: Slave to serf streamlined production so could have more territory under cultivation and control.

Industrial revolution: Serf to wage slave happened when oldworld empire whales realised they didnt need as many people if they just raised sheep. Suddenly Serfs found themselves in the brand new wage labor market. wasnt a good time

AI / Tech revolution: the labor is no longer needed in the indutrial facilities, increasingly not even needed in the office. So what now? Are we free to go? will there be a culling? will the masses suffer and linger until the Empire Whales find a way to commodotise whatever is left of our humanity? Dunno. Dont wanna find out. I ditched the plantation and havent stopped running.

Love peace and hair grease bro

In option 3) many people will hate bitcoin because in their eyes it will be the cause of the downfall. "Bitcoin has destabilized the system and now we suffer while bitcoiners are taking unfair illegal advantage of the situation!!!".

That is why we spread the lore. So as many as possible have the chance to come to Satoshi. Can't force them but we can keep the freedom beacons lit and say the words often. Meanwhile we keep stacking. Maybe we can help some of the lost when the dust settles. But we cant force them to come.

Nostr Lyn is πŸ”₯

Right? NOSTR Lyn is epic to an unexpected degree.

πŸ”₯

I've got a fresh example of a such survivability. In February 2022 right after Russian invasion in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Moscow authorities have finally closed "The Echo of Moscow" radio station. Also they have closed it's internet site & YouTube channel. They deleted *all* saved video, audio and text materials. Almost all digital history of an neutral radio station where alternative opinions were so popular - was lost. A lot of journalists were forced to immigrate.

But in one and a half years a large number of enthusiasts scattered around the world has successfully gathered most of Echo's audio and text legacy and opened free public access to it. Separate pieces of this archive were stored here and there on different network resources and on listeners' computers. It was a hard job to glue the pieces together.

This restoration has inspired many freedom-loving Russians. Believe me, there are many of them.

And I hope the common sense will be able to overcome the chaos that we are likely to encounter and put together distributed ledgers. I'm glad to see that you think the same.

Seekng the big picture like none other. Also, great interview on MacroVoices this week, Lyn

the 1940s debt was from ww2. assuming we enter a ww3 scenario in the next couple years, the debt will only balloon more lol.

It's why I leave my bad takes public as well (my shotcoinint days).

It reminds me of how easily I can be lead astray.

...

That is one of the wisest things I have heard in a while. We are all less sovereign in our thoughts than we like to think.

we are going to win. bitcoin and rationality is unstoppable and, although historically the world sometimes goes mad, rationality has proven to prevail (but it won’t be easy I guess)

In the end there will be only bitcoin

we will not waver

🀝

Yes, and we need to protect L1 from accidental death by programmers' attempts at improvement/expanded capabilities. One of the biggest threats IMHO comes from the Bitcoin community and the human desire to constantly tweak stuff.

Truth. We will be dilluted and corrupted over time if we dont maintain an immutable base of code, dogma and lore. The Empire Whales are very old and very patient. They have been augmented over time. We must stay vigilant especially as we build the foundations.

I keep mulling over how government+ai could capture bitcoin and use it against freedom. Constantinople co-opted Christianity and turned it into a tool of oppression when he realized he could use it for his purposes. How might it happen again?

Same as always. They wrap it in hypothecated bullshit and sell it to the masses. Its the masses they need to control. We are just an annoyance . . . unless we win and freedom tech becomes the norm.

another good post

be simple and go all in (3)

There is no option but option 3. If any other option then we and everything we remember and fight for will be wiped from existence and history. Everything you say is true and this a very old game and there are still some very old Empire Whales stirring in the deep.

Finding Bitcoin is the evolution. Bitcoin is firmament. We just grew thumbs and climbed out of the water. Some of us are felling trees for fishing boats. We wont all make it but in the end there will be only bitcoin. Or the world and version of humanity we know and love wont be remembered for the future to grieve. That may be as extreme as the Scoffield rapturists dropping nukes or as banal as networked dopamine modulation through social technology.

Either way.

The whales are real and everything is a market

We must not waver

We must build

We must be viglant

We must always verify (Don't Believe Nuthin bout Nothin)

We must thank satoshi daily

Keep preaching Lyn don't ever stop

Guys, put all your Ideas all your knowlege on the Bitcoin Blockchain. It should be stored and safed for your next generations. If somebody has Tesla like free electric skillz do it on the BTC Blockchain. No more Idea stealing from those Mofo's. It's our world not theirs.

The victor writes the history either way - we all hope for the best - prepare for the worst. Love your work lyn

Or, more likely, both systems can co-exist, in a two-tier financial system. Governments will very likely use gold in a monetary reset, after all this is the real asset the biggest central banks own. Fiat money will most certainly continue to exist and Bitcoin might become the preferred reserve asset for all non-sovereign institutions and also small developing nations which have little or no gold reserves. In this scenario, the bitcoin standard will be likely adopted by the legacy financial sector, commercial banks (which can use bitcoin as a reserve asset to offer a new wave of commercial free banking services), corporations and individuals. Basically, the world might be using 2 monetary systems mutually integrated: an upper tier for governments and central banks functioning with SDRs as world currency fractionally backed up by gold reserves and a lower tier for small sovereigns, banks and individuals using national fiat currencies and bitcoin as a reserve asset, frictionless moving between fiat currencies for expenditures and bitcoin for savings. This would be the ideal solution. Why not a full bitcoin standard and hyper-bitcoinization. Because of the power forces at play. I have explained it here

https://primal.net/e/note1fj628t74zfvshe4cv6yct6uq29mv7kns6hqxja7nxwqnmjflxeqsvmz6ux

Beautifully put!

We can't loose

Can you probability weight the outcomes pls? Just curious πŸ‘€

I agree with everything you said, except that BTC is flawed because it is a state-sanctioned surveillance coin. By using it, it encourages the Option 2 scenario. Layer 2s are simply the gold/fiat playbook all over again. Bitcoin gets centralized, rehypothecated and fractionalized, and eventually meaningless. For option 3 to happen, money has to be fungible, and wallet addresses private. Only the Mimble Wimble protocol can do this. Yes, many dare not to speak of privacy for fear of being labelled a renegade. So be it. The brave lead, and the rest follow.