Open relays will become a thing of the past, because of abuse (overuse), illegal content, and "the authorities" coming after them for said illegal content.

Blastr will become a thing of the past, because open relays became a thing of the past.

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Information Centric Networking is the direction.

I think they always will exist. The other alternative is an authorization orgy

Both will exist, wild west nostr, and auth nostr

I'd be happy if open relays do continue to exist. But that means overuse abuse doesn't happen, which I don't think we should rely upon. We should be ready for intense DoS and make sure we can survive it, and IMHO there is no way I can see to keep relays open if that happens.

How did IRC happen? NNTP? How is this all that different?

We can mitigate a lot on the relays. Even Usenet lasted awhile before it went to all paid services. And they didn't have a web of trust model.

yes

Not necessarily, I think abuse will be something, but I also think we can have quite interesting anti-spam techniques Ip rate limiting, WoT, different policies for kick or ban... I think that the public nature of nostr is something that works in favor of relay operators, there is a lot of data to be able to use and combat bad actors

yes

Just today I said one police report on me and my relay would be shut down immediately. And that's sadly true.

Ye of little faith.