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I do consider this to be pretty vague. "a near miss that whizzes past the head" is a pretty common trope in media (and in real life). This guy's "prophesy" is both too vague, but also erroneously specific:

Specifc but wrong:

- bullet was so close his eardrum ruptured. (No, it was actually even CLOSER. It hit his ear! And his eardrum didn't rupture)

- he fell to his knees and worshipped Jesus (this didn't happen)

Vague:

- on what date was this supposed to happen?

- can we get more details? What state was it in? Hiw many secret service members jumped in?

- how many shots were fired?

- how many bystanders were hit, if any?

- Trump will be persecuted (duh)

- Trump eventually won (yea, polls say so too. Not a prophesy)

See what I mean? If you had a secret video of this event and you wanted to convince somebody that you had seen the video, you would provide all those details, because you CAN. theres no reason to be vague when you're attempting to convince someone unless you actually don't have the details.

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

I do find it Interesting, that you would consider this vague when you consider all of the potential possibilities compared to the "vision".

I agree there are discrepancies such as the ear drum being called out. But as a whole, for me, this description is pretty accurate.

The shooter could have gone for center mass or could have tried to catch him walking in the street like a Reagan style attempt. Or not happened at all, as is usually the case for the thousands of politicians speaking events.

The accuracy depends on how many variables you include in the equation. But a complete random dude calling out a head shot and ear injury, followed by fervent prayer is pretty damn close to what happened. Truth is, we don't know if he was praying when he knelt down, but when facing live fire... Even the most militaristic atheist turns religious. "There are no atheists in a foxhole".

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Discussion

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

I'm not saying that either of our interpretations are accurate. Just curious to see how your mind works on these sorts of things.

vinney...axkl 1y ago

When considering all the potential possibilities, you must also consider all the "prophets" who have made endless predictions about Trump.

Out of tens of thousands of false predictions, one starts to look a little similar if you squint. That's a classic selection bias and cherry-picking effect.

Stephen King's The Dead Zone depicts a populist politician who survived an assassination attempt: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa-3up4-xNk

If I wanted to make the case, I could say that this whole story and the assassination attempt is a close match for Trump's story, therefore King is making an accurate prophetic prediction. But that's obviously silly

vinney...axkl 1y ago

Now, if this one guy keeps being correct again and again I would feel *very* differently.

But to the extent that *different* people's predictions are all selected post-facto and all lumped together as a general, single effect... That's where I get off the ride.

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

You're right. That would be silly. King wasn't making a prophecy nor was he talking about Trump. Coincidences do exist, as do ikenesses.

Political assassination, is not an uncommon thing, especially in works of fiction. They make for great stories.

The video was taken in April and would've had a 6 month periodnin which it could've happened, and he was explicitly talking about Trump in the context of prophecy. 🤷‍♂️

For me, that's a difference.

vinney...axkl 1y ago

My point is: find me every video of everyone who has ever made a prediction about Trump. And put all the "wrong"s on one side and the "right"s on the other.

If the wrong side is 10 miles high and you choose the one "right" option, the strength of that as "prophecy" now falls on that single prophet's past and future track record.

You can't select from an entire set like that and call it meaningful.

It's exactly like saying "since this person won the lottery, he must know the correct way to win the lottery". You only get to say that if he keeps winning in the future

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

It's a good point. Yes and no. If a man declares in a recording from April that he saw the numbers in a dream and they will come up before November... Then numbers come up, it would raise an eyebrow to the authenticity of the claim.

Even if he never dreams of lottery numbers again, I feel like we can take that claim at face value. I don't think this guy is declaring that he can see the future and that we should follow him.

I think that's a more accurate comaprison, but i see where you're coming from.

vinney...axkl 1y ago

> If a man declares in a recording from April that he saw the numbers in a dream and they will come up before November... Then numbers come up...

Yea you're right this is a good analogy.

In this case, the guy got some of the lottery numbers right, some were wrong, and some of the numerals were a little blurry. If it really were the lottery, he wouldn't be walking away with the jackpot.

To me, this (getting some of the numbers right) is mildly interesting but not a clear/obvious case. And given the major loftiness of the claim being made (the implications are: god is real, god gave me a vision, god is on trump's side, god protected trump, trump is going to come around to being some kind of soldier for jesus, etc. etc. a massively consequential set of conclusions), personally I'd want a LOT more accuracy and less room for chance in order to accept such enormous claims.

You have a different set of priors (half of the implications above you probably readily accept), so the situation looks very different for you. Seems reasonable to me.

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

same. agreed.

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

It's important to have these conversations. keeps us all honest and grounded. Thanks for being a good sport.

vinney...axkl 1y ago

Same to you!

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

But seriously... Grow your own f* vegetables 😜

vinney...axkl 1y ago

lol I am!

currently: tomatoes, figs (!), cucumbers, beans, peppers, eggplant, lettuces, chard (missed garlic this year), and herbs of course.

one year I grew wheat. that was fucking cool. not worth the effort to do on a small scale, though.

Potatoes are fun.

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

nice! I need more beds! I'm in the burbs now, but we're about to harvest and start the fall garden. I plan on doing peas, green beans, probably broccoli and kale. Maybe some beets.

Garlic is a must so I'll try to overwinter those. We'll see.

vinney...axkl 1y ago

Brassicas get attacked by whatever friggin bugs eat brassiacas for us here. I gave up on them :(

GrumpyGardener 1y ago

that's the one thing I like about having a relatively small yard is that it's easy to treat. I don't treat the plants but cutting down on what's around helps.