15% dip
Did I get liquidated - no
Did I give the exchange their money back - no
Did I buy more at 91k with the exchange's money - absolutely fucking yes
How? My principal exceeds the borrow amount and I'm not a greedy person. Bitcoin has to dip over 60% for me to worry.
What exchange do you use - asking for a friend
Until yesterday it was Binance and then they came around with their routine re-verification. Being in Germany atm means that updating my info locked me out of the market. So I moved my funds to Kraken which is still under my Spanish details. Hence I bought 1k worth at 100k and when we fell through I bought another 1k worth this morning at 91k.
Note, my principal / collateral is BTC which never gets sold into fiat. I don't short myself, I only buy Bitcoin with their money and eventually pay them back keeping the difference. For this to work your collateral should be at least 3x what you're borrowing and never fomo into the first buy with the max amount available. you "ladder" into your buys and take the free sats. With this approach you can't get liquidated. Been doing this for a long time and never lost money.
I did the same long time ago with ETH and DAI. Put ETH in collateral to get DAI, bought more ETH with DAI that I put back in the collateral. I was able to survive 50% price down. When it was 45% down, into panic, I send more ETH in the collateral, was able to withstand 60% down. Left a week on holiday, got liquidated at 62% price down which stay at this level for less than an hour then went back 20ish% up and never went back to this level ever again.
Learned the lesson, for long I would never talk about it again.
But now BTC is getting slightly less volatile (and much less than any shitcoin), might worth reconsider it, but not during a bullmarket, only after a deep bottom of a bear. The closer we are from ATH, the higher is the risk of a large correction, especially flash crash.
Thanks for sharing.
I don't play with any other coins. My sole goal is to steal sats from the market and I'm not interested in any other token at all. As for a flash crash, at this stage of the cycle, unlikely but never say never.
Here's a calculation I've run a while ago for a friend who wanted me to explain this. I figured AI can explain this better than I can myself.
https://chatgpt.com/share/67573014-1b78-800e-b26b-684c71f92a39
Dip dip dip buy the dip dip dip
should be a song!
We should do a shitty AI tune and sell it to NGU bros 😎🙏
https://video.nostr.build/bc864762d7f7b26d8c75767a098b974b4b52794dcf2df231248d220f19a849ff.mp4
Source: Michael Saylor - We Call Them Poor (Poolside House Remix) Lil Bubble on Youtube
🧡🫡
Yeah that kind of approach screwed me in March of 2020.
I really had no idea what I was doing though.
I didn't think a dip that big would happen & in hindsight had no idea what Bitcoin really was.
It's pretty much like being a winning poker player and it comes down to discipline, not being emotional and not getting greedy. Also proper bankroll management. The moment you deviate or go on tilt you lose.
With risk there's 2 factors.
- likelihood
- impact
You're reducing the likelihood of risk but increasing the impact.
There are no solutions, no perfect ways to gamble. I think you're aware of that, but many aren't.
I tend to use 50X leverage when I gamble on these dips. Low impact of loss but the likelihood is much much higher. I know it's degenerate behaviour but I'm fascinated by the emotional responses these actions evoke within me.
I started with 1 million sats on lnmarkets & I've now got 2.4 million sats in there. 400k of that is at risk of being liquidated at 90.3k & the other 2 million sats are just exposed to the 3rd party custody risk.
I agree. there isn't a perfect solution for most things. I simply prefer a low risk environment and in exchange a longer timeframe.
When I used play poker for a living (before Bitcoin) I stuck to playing low/mid stakes cash games. Rather than working my way up towards high stake games. In return I'd play 6-8 six man tables simultaneously and grind the odds. For example if I had a nut flush draw on the flop and met aggression I'd push all-in having 89% to win the hand by the river. The goal would be to either get fold and take the pot or force the showdown. What I don't want in that situation is buying the turn facing more aggression since the odds change dramatically once the 4th card drops and you still have X players in the hand.
I should also add that the current strategy applied to the market is definitely a bull cycle strategy which wont play the same way once the cycle is over. Plus, I'm basically freerolling with the current collateral on the exchange. I made my money back over the year so even if we encounter a black swan event (imo unlikely at this time) it's not really my sats any more.
It's funny because I really don't like the persistent low level risk. I'd rather a quick result (positive or negative) otherwise it occupies my mind too much for too long.
I surprisingly don't get that feeling from having sats in cold storage.
I get more uneasiness from having a small bet running. I'm paying interest on the bet & it's subject to risk while open.
I'm fascinated by the psychology of it all.
