Why does everybody assume BTC/USD = 1M means hyperinflation? It is really a reasonable price for the current dollar value.
Discussion
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A long way to go. Some really bad things have to happen to run up that much.
Not necessarily. One of the silliest things I hear people say when talking about things like gold or bitcoin being repriced by inflation is, “but you wouldn’t want to live in a world with $10,000 gold” “or but a loaf of bread would cost you $50…” Gold did an 8x move from 2001 to 2011 and it didn’t turn into a mad max world. Bitcoin has been doing about a 20x + every four years (mathematically this can’t continue) for the last 14 years and bread is still affordable ish.
The move from conception to now is a lot smaller in real terms than the move that would happen from 27k to a million. Cannot compare it by multiplier imo.
I buy that argument, but 1 million in BTC in seven years is very possible without really bad things happening. Obviously “diminishing returns” has to happen.
I highly doubt. The amount of bitcoin on exchanges is pretty large despite some bitcoiners dishonestly manufacturing fomo by saying it’s shrinking.
What bad things? I can only see good things.
$1M Bitcoin is definitely too cheap for Bitcoin.
If it reaches $1M and we don’t have hyperinflation, then I’m giving all the credit to nostr. If it reaches $1M and we do have hyperinflation, I’m giving all the credit to nostr.
Yes. It can do that in a zero inflation world simply by becoming an asset class that displaces parts of other classes. Gold, Land being the main likely ones. But, that won't happen fast, but will take more than a couple of cycles
Or just government bonds.
That’s the most likely path to a quick $1M. I don’t think BTC can 30x in 90 days without USD getting devalued drastically.
There is an error in thinking that the equivalent of the market cap has to enter into Bitcoin to achieve this
Is there an equation that describes this? How much FIAT must flow into a system like Bitcoin to make the market cap to double, 10-, 20-fold? Or is that just impossible to count on?
Lots of good comments here: https://twitter.com/chowcollection/status/1429827601724547073
“market cap to invested capital is not a 1:1 ratio.
Fundstrat did some research on this in the 2018 bull and found that the ratio of price increase to actual dollars added was closer to 20:1. IE 20$ of additional mkt cap for every 1$ invested in bitcoin (on average).” from @npub1x89n94f6mqgre90r9wv3vurnkzqgcw9397zz4yy4p8|n8mh7zkvq3esm56
It's really impossible to predict because most of the supply that comes to meet demand is from existing bitcoin holders. At what price do they decide to exercise some of that bitcoin optionality?
If most hodlers decide that they're not selling any until at least $1m, the ratio might be much higher than 20:1. As each cycle passes, the conviction of hodlers increases & so does the number of hodlers with conviction. More sats become not for sale (at any price) as the sats get more evenly distributed.
Yes. The relation must be dynamic and cannot be analysed as If it were a static relationship between inflows of money and appreciation in price.
During the last bull, much demand was met with paper bitcoin not backed by anything. Supply side scarcity didn't factor in as much as it should have & people learned a tough lesson about bitcoin.
I feel that if people are turning to bitcoin because of a lack of trust in fiat & banks, they will want to reduce/remove third party risk. Maybe I overestimate their understanding of Bitcoin, but a lack of third party risk was a large & obvious feature for me.
Let's see how this pans out.
Yeah it really depends what your goals are. Maybe you have a dream house and as soon as it is affordable it gets purchased. Or maybe you’ve extrapolated out 20 years of HODLing and plan to do something exponentially far beyond your current means.
следующий цикл просто конфискует 2-4 миллиона монет у биржи, предупреди соседа.
как думаешь какаво государству сидеть без монет? если есть такой жирный кусок как биржа ...
It is impossible to know. Any time someone throughs out something it is just about the concept that there is some multiplier that could be very large. A single penny of buy pressure would trigger hyperbitcoinization if no one sold.
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Current fair value is over $25M/BTC based on global wealth.
By the time we get to hyperbitcoinization, expect that number to climb to rather obscene fiat levels. Like $1T/BTC but valued like 25 million is today
This is true. But it's not true if your time horizon is 90 days.
💯 Liberty and inviolable property within finite units. Freedom has an increasing number of dedicated bidders.
Are we pricing things in Bitcoin by that point
1 Sat = 1 penny
imho 1M will come and go quickly as by that point hyperinflation would be underway.
As price rises the speed at which it rises should also accelerate. people will recognize hyperinflation and accumulate btc at any price.
Correct. One of the stupidest things I hear people say when talking about things like gold or bitcoin being repriced by inflation is, “but you wouldn’t want to live in a world with $10,000 gold” “or but a loaf of bread would cost you $50…” Gold did an 8x move from 2001 to 2011 and it didn’t turn into a mad max world. Bitcoin has been doing about a 20x + every four years (mathematically this can’t continue) for the last 14 years and bread is still affordable ish.
Yes, people assume too much.
There's a lot of talk about your post.
Added to the https://member.cash/hot feed
Good point
Let's readjust, 100 million 180 days. That's the beginnings of the hyper inflation
On a ninety day horizon it might signal a problem rather than organic assimilation of global value.
I think they are thinking more like, if bitcoin shoots up right now, it’s probably because people are running from inflation.
Idk where they are getting the number 1m tho… probably just a big number that is attractive.
Kinda just seems like an emotional statement but I think the idea is if bitcoin pumps it’s most likely cause of massive inflation and people are done leaving fiat.
😂
It depends on the time horizon
And it can be a temporary hike due to high demand and low supply if large institutions decide to start diversify suddenly.