bitcoin, gold, and usd are competing monies
one will win, the other two will continue to trend to zero
Discussion
People will continue to use and counterfiet gold and fiat... Bitcoin takes a lot of energy to fake đ¤
Shitcoins exist...
might take a century, or two. But if you stay on the right side of trend, that ok.
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âOk 2-1 oddsâ - nostr:npub1guh5grefa7vkay4ps6udxg8lrqxg2kgr3qh9n4gduxut64nfxq0q9y6hjy
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There is gold that can be mined on other planets in the solar system. There is always only 21 million btc
Gold and fiat only lead to dystopian outcomes
TWO ARE FAKE AND GHEY
Nonsense.
Gold is a usable material.
Everything from jewelry to electronic components.
Gold is not money it's a resource.
US dollars are not money either they are debt tokens. Negative value, only used because of the violent state backed monopoly.
I'd say the monetary premium tending to zero (rather than the money itself) is more likely. Gold price would in that case go to its utility value. Debt tokens would perhaps be repriced in the winning money to some extent? Imo if there's a chance the monetary premium of gold disappears, it'll happen far from now. Most likely some of the monetary market cap should still be captured by other monies than the main winner.
Most people are underexposed to bitcoin. So bitcoin will win.
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your necklace wonât reach zero value though
I agree with the first claim but only USD will go to zero. Gold is not only money, it is a commodity as well. It will always have value but there can be new gold supplies that fluctuate that value. BTC has a fixed, unchangeable amount, it will shoot up. USD/EUR are scams designed to go to zero.
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Hard to tell which is which
In our lifetimes, two will trend up vs USD. Too many central banks own gold to let its value decline
đ˝ the ultimate freedom tech will prevail
Gold never goes to zero. Its God money
Provocative post, because I think it depends on time frame, and whether "trend to zero" means that it ultimately worthless, or that it will be just worth less.
How does gold trend to zero? We've already minded like 70-80% of the earth's gold, with pretty high confidence.
Of course asteroid mining could change things, or maybe some large deposit could be found somewhere totally unexpected vis a vis the modellingâthough even that wouldn't likely change things by more than a few percent.
So the scarcity part seems pretty legit. And I don't see our race falling out of love with traditional concepts of jewellery anytime soon, to say nothing of gold as an accepted abstract store of value.
"Trend to zero" â "go to zero"
What Orwellian wordplay is this?
Itâs a fact. Much like every shitcoin. As long as there is at least one holder, they canât go to zero ever. They just keep trending that way into smaller and smaller decimals.
Hmm, in that case "trends to zero" sounds like just a euphemism for "goes down".
Itâs more than just âgoing downâ though. In this case the phrase means itâs going down and that the floor is set at zero rather than, say, 0.001 BTC per oz. âAsymptotically approaching zeroâ is more accurate but itâs a mouthful
For discussing certain theories I suppose that's a useful distinction. But for me the assertion that gold will go to 0.000[infinite more zeros]1 seems just as unserious as the assertion that gold will go to 0. Even to assert that the value of gold will approach the value of, say, copperâI can't see how that could happen in the next 100 years.
If Bitcoin goes to $1M and gold continues it's growth rate to $5K in a decade, gold will be at .005. that's trending towards zero.
It will never hit zero.
You are free to say gold is going down, but that doesn't cover it.
That seems to assume a fixed external measure, in this case $. Not that I have any idea how three body problems work in math.
To make it simpler, yes. Gold is priced in dollars globally. So you have to also then use dollars for Bitcoin.
Only if/when gold gets priced in Bitcoin in global markets can you compare without the 3rd party dollars.
So you're saying gold will trend to zero of what exactly?
The amount of Bitcoin it takes to buy an ounce of gold will trend towards zero over time.
I am not sure why you are confused at the idea? It has been happening and will continue to happen as more and more gold is mined and less and less Bitcoin is mined.
To me it sounds like assumptions, built on assumptions, built on assimptoins.
I watched this podcast this afternoon, and it seems to me to be a far more down-to-earth assessment of what Bitcoin is and what we can say about it without venturing into fortune teller territory.
I agree that zero is unlikely. Gold might be a deprecated form of money but it still has uses in industry and for that reason it will have some baseline of demand and a relatively stable supply.
Weâre a long way from that point now though and gold is still used mostly as store of value (bullion and jewelry) so it should fall a long way from here relative to bitcoin.
One thing I wonder is that nostr ethos seems to be all about spending bitcoin, making it an everyday currency, buy your coffee, buy your bacon and eggs. Iâm not an economist by any stretch , but it stands to reason that there would be a push and pull between everyday currency and store of value. When it comes to gold, people donât trade their earrings for their breakfast.
That's because gold is a horrendous medium of exchange. It isn't practical to do so in any way. Bitcoin is both. And yes, there is a constant struggle and fight within Bitcoin as to which it is.
Yes, this very much confuses me. Many opinions here seem to exist in a quantum superposition of "stack sats" and "spend sats". It seems so obviously logically inconsistent.
The folks that are all in on store of valueâthe "I'll never zap a single sat" crowdâare at least understandable. While I disagree that Bitcoin will ever come close to gold, at least I get the position they're staking out.
But those that are "store of value" one day and then "day-to-day currency" the next day, I really have no idea what the thinking is.
Why can't it be both? People have savings accounts in a bank. They have a checking account. When you need or want to buy something bigger, you can move money from the savings.
Not sure what the analogy is, the dollars in your savings account don't change their fundamental properties when you place them in there, they get spent by the bank here there and everywhere, and the returns accrue as interest. If Bitcoin becomes a transactional currency it'll appreciate or depreciate within the bounds of everyday life, as all transactional currencies must.
Saving and spending are just competing use cases. Some may favour one or the other at different times, and in different places. Bitcoin has more use cases, such as social, which I tried to push for 10 years, but for the first 5 almost no one was intrested. Eventually people got it, with nostr. But it took a long time. The next use case is commerce. But just like the original bitcoin, people dont get it yet, and it make take some time. Until then, fiat remains dominant.
I think the majority of bitcoin people won't abandon the store of value dream, and that'll make it hard to popularise for everyday commerce . You can't have the value of "saved bitcoin" go up in relation to your cup of coffee while the value of "spendable bitcoin" does not. And coffee shops are not going to update their prices and menus daily.
I think that's the wrong way to look at it. IMHO a better is that bitcoin is a bank account or savings account where things get cheaper and cheaper. This seems to me, to be better than the alternatives, right now.
I can't see any magic that would make one's coffee just get cheaper and cheaper. It's not like agriculture is somehow subservient here.
Coffee is denominated in the weaker currency. If you hold the stronger currency, what you purchase is cheaper *at the time of spending*.
I can see some 'cashing out' of accumulated store-of-value margin. But once you start connecting the store of value to the supermarket then it becomes entangled with everything in the supermarket and beyond. It would be the same with gold.
I still can't really see any real difference between bitcoin and gold. I've read that around the year 2140 all bitcoin will have been mined. I've seen estimates for gold that by the year 2100 all gold will have been mined too. The percentage of bitcoin actually being used in commerce is minuscule, same with gold. Governments seem to want both for reserves. Calling bitcoin digital gold seems about right to me.
Yes. Towards zero.
The monetary premium will go to zero. The price will solely consist of the utility value. Value given by applications such as jewelry, tooth fillings, conductive wires, gold plated toilets, etc.
Depends on the timeframe, and if governments aggressively adopt CBDCs everything changes.
Three contenders: one rooted in math, one in metal, one in manipulation.
Only one aligns with freedom.
The outcome isn't just economicâit's ethical.â
USD is endless inflation, people are just to stupid to see (they just think stuff gets more expensive).
In 1979 you could get an oz of gold for 35$, today the price is 3350$
Gold is stable, it is directly reflected in the energy used to extract it. High price more gold, lower price less new gold.
Why would anyone try to pump or promote BTC??? Does it have any value as a store of assets or a medium of exchange? Does it provide any particular value to the world?
People on NOSTR are talking about BTC as if they were trying to pump a penny stock. That's what makes Nostr weird, suspicious and claustrophobic.
I have BTC (as I bought them 10 years ago), it is not anything I would promote to anyone. As a medium of exchange I prefer other crypto's.
Nixon's underwear has probably increased in value the last ten years.
You're right on target regarding USD inflation â it functions more like an intentional feature than an unintended flaw. Another example, comparing a $500k house today to perhaps $5k in the 1920s, perfectly highlights this persistent devaluation. Most modern currency systems are designed for gradual depreciation, which encourages economic circulation by motivating spending and investment. Also, the real value of debt can decrease over time. People often complain about inflation without fully understanding it; they just want more. But in general, we have more today than ever before in terms of quality of life.
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