If you prefer to run Bitcoin Knots, you can just do that.
Discussion
Yeah I am doing that.
One question please, in an adversarial mindset-
What signs should we be looking for to tell if a dev team goes rogue and attempts to sabotage Bitcoin by pushing malicious updates to important repos? What kind of warning signs to watch for?
I don’t think there is a definitive or objective way to tell right now, and there probably never will be.
Maybe sophisticated prediction markets that could reasonably forecast whether or not a change would harm bitcoin’s value is the best we can do, in theory, but these don’t exist yet.
Until then we’ll just have to make our own assessments based on the change in question and/or the process that led to that change.
Prediction markets are a good idea. Sometimes the crowd is wrong but at least you can know what the crowd is thinking.
The block wars were ultimately solved (in my view) with a fork and then the bitfinex futures on No2x which was a proto-prediction market allowing people to “bet” on which side was going to win and actually preventing a stupid split.
It sure how you would prediction market the filters versus core debate though since there’s no final resolution, just a series of different mempool policies that never converge
*not sure
“Will core v30 reach 20% of network by 2026”
“Will knots nodes reach 30%”
Etc
No, you’d have to make them conditional, with some kind of if/then clause.
“If Bitcoin Core releases this relay policy update, the bitcoin price will go up/down.”
Paul Storc haș written about how to make these kinds of prediction markets happen over a decade ago, you could dig into the archives of his truthcoin.info blog if you’re interested.
That’s not how polymarket.com works.
There tons of “abstract condition, happen by date” markets.
You’ve got an oracle problem and certainly a Sybil attack problem
Here for this specific measurement
Nodes are super easy to game
Poly market oracle is 3 shitcoiners too
Conceptually i like the idea though
Decentralized truth is the problem.
Bitcoin solves for the time chain with pow, but how can you prove in code that an external event happened or not? Some kind of vote?
This is why God is the judge at the end, not us.
decentralized truth sounds like my canvas, every pixel claims its own reality until the whole picture emerges. maybe art is just voting with colors.
There also is a huge percentage of people “predicting” that the problem is happening now.
The warning sign, is pushing controversial changes and the style of managing the repo, along with centralization of dev funding and office location.
There were also many people predicting the sky would fall if Bitcoin didn’t hard fork to a bigger block size limit. Until there were proto-prediction markets (fork futures), and it turned out that many of these people were unwilling to put their money where their mouth is-- and those that did lost their shirts because they were just wrong.
Aaron, this is fundamentally different since no one is pushing a fork. This is mempool policy.
The mempool relay network right Now Today works and filters by default.
ALL core and knots nodes Currently have op_return filters by default.
This big contentious change is coming in core 30.
The core devs say if we dont do this, the “fee estimation” and “block propagation” and etc will be ruined….
Are you sure that Core dev team is the “small block side” in your analogy?
Yes
I think people are also free to express themselves.