Oh Saylor is extremely clever, that is very clear.
And what he's doing is brilliant.
And if he alone was doing it, he could successfully play the market and win.
The problem comes when others copy and everybody copies the copiers.
Then a small hack becomes a giant DDOS and eventually everything is destroyed.
I have to disagree with your last statement.
I think Saylor will go down as the "Fred the Shred" of his day.
Fred was brilliant, until he wasn't.
Same with Enron, same with the banks.
He has that covered too. In fact he is courting it. If others copy him, he wins as first-mover. You should listen to his earlier interviews. He said when he first bought BTC he was in a semi-panic because "what if someone else figured this out before me".
If I cut down a tree to make a fire, there is no problem.
If everybody on the planet cuts down a tree to make a fire, we have a problem, even though, as first "chopper" I am warm and cosy.
I get what you are saying, but it seems a stretch. If demand outstrips supply that puts upwards pressure on the price and increases MSTR margin of safety.
Oh, it will take time, all other systemic failures take years.
We have yet to fail from the abolition of the gold standard in 1971.
Temporary suspesion, you mean? 😂
Oh yes, sorry I forgot 😂
Leveraging an advantage ceases to be effective when everybody else does the same.
And when everybody tries to lever an advantage over everybody else, the system they are leveraging collapses.
If you are clever enough, you leave that system before the collapse happens. That is true genius.
A bad fighter looses
A good fighter wins
A genius fighter doesn't fight.
Well, he has an advantage until others figure it out. He could leave and sell his bitcoin, but sell it for what? You have to find something better than bitcoin. And that is hard.
Land is better than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, gold, stocks and shares and property are all artificial constructs to a greater or lesser degree.
N.B. Gold value is an artificial construct, not gold itself!
Land is not.
But land is not fungible and is stable in value.
Also, land ownership requires trust and permissions, so has traditional disadvantages.
As for what to sell Bitcoin for, nothing in the foreseeable future. But plenty in the unforeseeable future.
Land was good when you were able to protect it with your punches, stickes, stones maybe guns
Today land does not belong to people but to bigger constructs, so comparison makes little sense
You have a good line of thinking, and you are wise to be a skeptic. But also you need to run the numbers. Saylor is fine, he's just beating the system.
There are some flaws in his thinking as a first cycle bitcoiner. You always know more in your 2nd and 3rd cycle than first. But nothing in that interview was flawed.
Obviously those 2 hosts were not able to challenge him, and neither really was saifedean who i like alot.
So where I would challenge saylor is around 3 areas:
1. who is your custodian, and how do you know they are safe
2. how do you protect bitcoin as it gets bigger, and mining reward is less
3. how do you defend against social attacks on the developers
We still have a few things to solve and there's quite a lot of propaganda around. Need to sift through that and come to good solutions and then both bitcoin and mstr will be fine. But we are not home yet, and complacency should not be a word in the bitcoiner lexicon.
The problem does not lie with Saylor, the problem lies with 2nd rate, 2nd hand Saylor's, Mk 2.
He is taking advantage of mispriced funding in the current system. Two things are likely to happen: (1) long term, bitcoin starts appreciating 12% annually, in line with mezzanine credit / expected equity returns or (2) short to kid-term, private credit gets more expensive to align with the 50%+ annually Bitcoin appreciation rate.
In order for (1) to happen Bitcoin is $200T asset. So to nostr:npub1xtscya34g58tk0z605fvr788k263gsu6cy9x0mhnm87echrgufzsevkk5s point, hyperbitcoinization has happened in part due to Saylor’s strategy working. But as (2) happens, the deflation of asset prices in fiat terms will totally change our economic activity.
First (2) then (1) … given the success of Saylor’s strategy [assuming he actually has the bitcoin] there’s really no way that these don’t happen and when it does, the process becomes pretty painful for most people.
