Replying to Avatar mike

You can rehypothecate a synthetic?

Let’s break it down and explain why you might want to care.

A synthetic asset, also known as a "synth", is a financial instrument that mimics the characteristics of another asset or asset class without requiring the owner to own the original asset.

Rehypothecation is a financial practice where a broker or financial institution uses a client's collateral for their own purposes.

Rehypothecation can be risky, as over-leveraging assets can lead to complex chains of obligations. This can increase systemic risk if the market declines.

My understanding of the 2007/8 financial crises is these are the methods used. With the property market as asset base and with the banks playing the role of bad actors.

This is now what Saylor is doing with $MSTR he is buying Bitcoin, packaging that Bitcoin up as $MSTR shares, these shares have no direct relationship to the underlying asset.

Then investment firms are creating funds tracking the performance of $MSTR shares either betting for or against them and selling synthetics at multiple times the underlying asset of $MSTR shares, which has multiple times the underlying asset of $BTC.

This model is actively being replicated by many other firms copying this model, believing it to be sound.

Why should you care about this?

We know that the 2007/8 crises was a tremor and we are yet to experience the actual earthquake.

Bitcoin was created by Satoshi to counteract what happened in 2007/8 by creating hard money.

Saylor through $MSTR and others through ETFs, which while currently backed by real Bitcoin (as far as we can tell), are creating synthetics and being rehypothecated.

Meaning that Bitcoin is becoming part of the problem rather than the solution. Not only that, it is dramatically increasing the size of the problem.

It has never been more important for us to self custody Bitcoin and not allow its use as a Synthetic or to allow it to be rehypothecated.

Saylor discusses this here, it sounds clever, and to be frank I don’t understand most of it, but it is actually using Bitcoin as a leverage device:

https://v.nostr.build/C0z85M8H3Gbyc6Y2.mp4

nostr:note19stecwggn4c5u6qntdc42vxnv09q9dy6vvh3sfyzwx9296xtgess8cwmdp

You raise good questions. What Saylor just produced there was beyond nobel prize winning analysis of the weaknesses in the wall street group think. He's beating the risk free rate because people are bitcoin skeptics and microstrategy skeptics. He has a bit of leverage but not a huge amount, and it's all pretty transparent. MSTR is better capitalized than any bank in the world. And this is not a coincidence.

2008 was outright fraud. They basically used banking licenses to print money. A banking license lets you print money but you have to take on the risk premium if you do that. They didnt, they just did robo loans and collected pay checks. Then repackaged that junk with the ratings agencies as derivatives. The idea is that house prices always go up, so you cant lose. It's a fiction. And it still goes on today. Which is why so many banks are insolvent.

What Saylor has done has completely hacked the system. Everywhere he turns he has the opportunity of free money, all be it with some risk. He keeps the risk in check, and takes the free money, and gives it to his share holders, so the price goes up.

He then sells more shares to buy bitcoin. In any other company you get punished by selling shares. Think of it like vitalek printing more ETH. But Saylor is doing it to buy BTC, which just makes them stronger. Every corp finance wannabe in the world needs to understand this inside out (they dont).

This is an absolute master class in a long series of master classes. Should you be worred? Nah, unless you're super paranoid AND you do the maths in a spreadsheet. You should be more worried about Barclays being insolvent and that just makes the case for full reserve digital assets even stronger.

Saylor will go down as the Galileo of his day.

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Oh Saylor is extremely clever, that is very clear.

And what he's doing is brilliant.

And if he alone was doing it, he could successfully play the market and win.

The problem comes when others copy and everybody copies the copiers.

Then a small hack becomes a giant DDOS and eventually everything is destroyed.

I have to disagree with your last statement.

I think Saylor will go down as the "Fred the Shred" of his day.

Fred was brilliant, until he wasn't.

Same with Enron, same with the banks.

He has that covered too. In fact he is courting it. If others copy him, he wins as first-mover. You should listen to his earlier interviews. He said when he first bought BTC he was in a semi-panic because "what if someone else figured this out before me".

If I cut down a tree to make a fire, there is no problem.

If everybody on the planet cuts down a tree to make a fire, we have a problem, even though, as first "chopper" I am warm and cosy.

I get what you are saying, but it seems a stretch. If demand outstrips supply that puts upwards pressure on the price and increases MSTR margin of safety.

Oh, it will take time, all other systemic failures take years.

We have yet to fail from the abolition of the gold standard in 1971.

Temporary suspesion, you mean? 😂

Oh yes, sorry I forgot 😂

Leveraging an advantage ceases to be effective when everybody else does the same.

And when everybody tries to lever an advantage over everybody else, the system they are leveraging collapses.

If you are clever enough, you leave that system before the collapse happens. That is true genius.

A bad fighter looses

A good fighter wins

A genius fighter doesn't fight.

Well, he has an advantage until others figure it out. He could leave and sell his bitcoin, but sell it for what? You have to find something better than bitcoin. And that is hard.

Land is better than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, gold, stocks and shares and property are all artificial constructs to a greater or lesser degree.

N.B. Gold value is an artificial construct, not gold itself!

Land is not.

But land is not fungible and is stable in value.

Also, land ownership requires trust and permissions, so has traditional disadvantages.

As for what to sell Bitcoin for, nothing in the foreseeable future. But plenty in the unforeseeable future.

Land was good when you were able to protect it with your punches, stickes, stones maybe guns

Today land does not belong to people but to bigger constructs, so comparison makes little sense

On a serious note, we are becoming the establishment and will set the rules that others follows.

The power tables are turning, we are on the right side.

You have a good line of thinking, and you are wise to be a skeptic. But also you need to run the numbers. Saylor is fine, he's just beating the system.

There are some flaws in his thinking as a first cycle bitcoiner. You always know more in your 2nd and 3rd cycle than first. But nothing in that interview was flawed.

Obviously those 2 hosts were not able to challenge him, and neither really was saifedean who i like alot.

So where I would challenge saylor is around 3 areas:

1. who is your custodian, and how do you know they are safe

2. how do you protect bitcoin as it gets bigger, and mining reward is less

3. how do you defend against social attacks on the developers

We still have a few things to solve and there's quite a lot of propaganda around. Need to sift through that and come to good solutions and then both bitcoin and mstr will be fine. But we are not home yet, and complacency should not be a word in the bitcoiner lexicon.

The problem does not lie with Saylor, the problem lies with 2nd rate, 2nd hand Saylor's, Mk 2.

He is taking advantage of mispriced funding in the current system. Two things are likely to happen: (1) long term, bitcoin starts appreciating 12% annually, in line with mezzanine credit / expected equity returns or (2) short to kid-term, private credit gets more expensive to align with the 50%+ annually Bitcoin appreciation rate.

In order for (1) to happen Bitcoin is $200T asset. So to nostr:npub1xtscya34g58tk0z605fvr788k263gsu6cy9x0mhnm87echrgufzsevkk5s point, hyperbitcoinization has happened in part due to Saylor’s strategy working. But as (2) happens, the deflation of asset prices in fiat terms will totally change our economic activity.

First (2) then (1) … given the success of Saylor’s strategy [assuming he actually has the bitcoin] there’s really no way that these don’t happen and when it does, the process becomes pretty painful for most people.