I think that’s a bear case, certainly possible, but I’d be surprised. We’d still love in a better world.
Not bearish on price btw, bearish on tech. A lot of use cases that only lightning can fill (micro/streaming payments). Impossible to imagine how much future commerce simply wouldn’t be possible without bitcoin.
Lightning will carry stablecoins. And Bitcoin Lightning payments would still have plenty of insane utility in this world. I also think all such local currencies, tokenized representations will be secured by bitcoin, and the exchange markets will be insanely deep and efficient. I just think there will be competitive currencies. And ubiquitous liquidity between them.
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Also, I think digital assets like music, and creative content will be commonly priced in bitcoin, because digital-native assets will just have global reach by default. Physical goods, will have pressure to be priced in local currencies. But in the same way many non-Americans are used to things being priced in USD, people will be used to things being priced in BTC for digital goods and services.
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I could see a counter argument to this one, thanks to lawyers. There’s a lot of money in pricing differently by country, and from that stems licensing agreements and the like. And then you eventually end up with an “American” version and “European” version of the same digital asset. And then DRM gets slapped on to control who gets what version, and maybe you even charge in the native currency to make those deals just flow. The best counter to that is for the creators to keep control of distribution and that frees them to use what they want for payment directly from the consumer. I too would like to hope that digital-native assets would have global reach by default; but I think distribution channels will matter, and channels with lots of people looking to skim off a piece will set very different rules from direct, artist-first channels.
