I think Bitcoiners may be surprised that no matter how successful Bitcoin becomes, that state-issued currencies will continue to exist, and bitcoin will be more like a world-reserve currency, that central banks hold, and people use as an inflation hedge, and people resort to as freedom money in hostile environments.
This is a very real possibility as to what Bitcoin's future looks like.
Man-Gods= bitcoin holders
slave masters = cbdc issuers
slaves= cbdc users
I don't see why that would be. Paper notes have the advantage of portability over gold, but a fiat currency, even a digital one, would do nothing that bitcoin couldn't do.
This is all dependent on bitcoin's ability to scale more than anything really and I think, personally, that's still a big if.
Agree with this. No reason to use a national currency over bitcoin/ lightningā¦
You'll be taxed in local currency. Most available credit will be available to you in local currency, and that will maintain significant markets for state currencies. Physical goods will be priced in national currencies, to allow for stable trade to persist through trade imbalances. For digitally native goods and services, bitcoin denominated pricing with be common, and usually the default.
I donāt think so. Taxes, I believe, are already payable in bitcoin in some places. Hopefully someone can verify. Goods are sold by people and people can decide what to price things in. As long as taxes and bills are payable in bitcoin it shouldnāt be an issue.
Lol stable trade? Whatās more stable than everyone using bitcoin?
Itās not bitcoin thatās the problem, itās a murderous evangelists whoāve been buying bitcoin to evade judgement.
Explains your if cases becoming famous causing such panic for the bitcoin evangelists blaming on closet criminality.
But quite clear where the shoe fits.
With that out of the way, coined wallet?! Why not?!
Of course they can. Digital fiat currency can be used as a tool for total control, as a means of restriction and keeping you in line like a horse with those eye things...
What about security?
Can you expand on that?
The halvenings are going to make the security budget an extremely small fraction of market cap. Fees might pick up a little but this will be a major obstacle for many purposes. At some point during one of these market crashes when all the miners are over leveraged and going bankrupt, someone with a billion dollar or so will be able to come in and take the whole thing over.
This doesn't happen if price against USD continually increases as it has been.
Current reward in dollars = ~$170,000
Fee-only reward assuming current fees and $1M valuation = $200,000
I don't think it's far fetched to think bitcoin hits $1M by 2140.
Yes, this is true for at least a period of time, but the fiat currencies will not survive if they donāt adapt. In other words, bitcoin becoming a competitor will force fiat currencies to evolve and become better. They will never be as good as bitcoin, but they will compete.
Yes, I'm betting they will adapt. Bitcoin will force them to.
I think so too, but I think there may be an slow trickle towards bitcoin while coexisting
Maybe!
This was always one of my scenarios for bitcoin. That it could fail as becoming a common currency, but just the specter of it would force governments to tame their monetary policy.
I definitely donāt think it will fail, but even if it does, at the absolute least it will educate a lot of people about money on its journey
I definitely don't think Bitcoin will fail.
I didn't say fail as in completely cease to exist. But basically it could tame the money printer to some extent just by being a viable alternative. Basically it could force fiat to self regulate and become sound money. Something a paper/digital money could be, even a centralized one. The incentives just aren't there currently.
Not the likely outcome I see, but one of the possibilities in my mind.
The way I think you see something like this being likely, is just by carefully evaluating human behavior in social groups. Look at people's political attitudes, their attitude towards states, etc. What you find is, the vast majority of people consider taxation and some semblance of the welfare state either a good thing or necessary evil. Everywhere. There's differences in opinions on how big or small the state should be, and how generous or minimalistic welfare programs should be. But when you add it all up, it turns out, it's a very very small number of people who think the idea of being a fully self-sufficient individual -- responsible managing their own security, contractual relationships privatized public goods, and all the stuff that anarcho-capitalists claim represents a perfect ethical society -- is an attractive idea, and compelling reason to disintegrate the modern state.
Humans organize into hierarchal power structures repeatedly, even when small societies are set up to try and deliberately avoid them. It still happens.
This tells us something important about what to expect from human nature in the future.
It's a big part of why I think political liberalism and democracy are very important -- to mediate the dangers of the human predilection for falling into these patterns into something that stays relatively aligned with the interests of the maximum number of people possible.
And as I've said previously, I think Bitcoin is a wondrously promising tool to add to the mix that puts back pressure on our tendency to fall into these authority structure traps. I don't want to speak for #[5]ā, but I think when he's talking about bitcoin as a democratizing force, he's more or less saying the same thing.
Honestly, that's kind of what I was saying as well.
More important than to prognosticate what the end state might look like - its to create the future we want to see. I do question the conviction of Block towards Bitcoin if the CEO of one of its division does not believe in a Bitcoin future. Perhaps the limitations of a state regulated public company? I hope I am reading this wrong here.
How do I not believe in a bitcoin future? The scenario I lay out, is basically bitcoin becoming the most important monetary asset in the world.
It seems to me you were saying that you donāt believe Bitcoin to be able to replace all forms of currencies. Iād assume also means that tools which goes towards this end, including to fight state national currencies as all forms of money, will be deprioritized from the road map.
Again, I hope I am wrong. But I am afraid, it is indeed not up to public companies to take on such positions. And if so, I can understand, even tho still being disappointed at the same time.
Why us pseudonymous FOSS projects exists.
It has nothing to do with regulations. It has everything to do with incentive structures in organized societies. There are colleagues I have that openly believe in the thesis that all money except for bitcoin will die. Our status as a publicly traded company does not impose any restriction on them saying that. And if I believed that was the most likely outcome, I would feel no compunction to say it, either.
No doubt govs will always try, but who would want to use that over btc?
Itās more that the vast majority of people *want* a government and *want* that government to provide some modicum of a safety net, security and a provisions for general welfare, so there is an in-built market for taxation by which the government can induce demand for its own currency. I predict this dynamic will persist.
Could you see a situation where taxes are paid in btc?
100k sat challenge for somebody to find a single brock post that doesnāt sit in this range #[0] 
Donāt think I could find you any more generic post than that. š
I think thatās a bear case, certainly possible, but Iād be surprised. Weād still love in a better world.
Not bearish on price btw, bearish on tech. A lot of use cases that only lightning can fill (micro/streaming payments). Impossible to imagine how much future commerce simply wouldnāt be possible without bitcoin.
Lightning will carry stablecoins. And Bitcoin Lightning payments would still have plenty of insane utility in this world. I also think all such local currencies, tokenized representations will be secured by bitcoin, and the exchange markets will be insanely deep and efficient. I just think there will be competitive currencies. And ubiquitous liquidity between them.
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Also, I think digital assets like music, and creative content will be commonly priced in bitcoin, because digital-native assets will just have global reach by default. Physical goods, will have pressure to be priced in local currencies. But in the same way many non-Americans are used to things being priced in USD, people will be used to things being priced in BTC for digital goods and services.
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I could see a counter argument to this one, thanks to lawyers. Thereās a lot of money in pricing differently by country, and from that stems licensing agreements and the like. And then you eventually end up with an āAmericanā version and āEuropeanā version of the same digital asset. And then DRM gets slapped on to control who gets what version, and maybe you even charge in the native currency to make those deals just flow. The best counter to that is for the creators to keep control of distribution and that frees them to use what they want for payment directly from the consumer. I too would like to hope that digital-native assets would have global reach by default; but I think distribution channels will matter, and channels with lots of people looking to skim off a piece will set very different rules from direct, artist-first channels.
Nah....
You don't understand Modern Gresham's and Metcalf's laws.
#[0]
I didn't say it's only going to be a reserve assets, though. It will be a fully functioning currency, and plenty of stuff will be priced in it.
Over what time frame? I can see them coexisting for a while. Power structures can impose currencies. But I think it will soon be very difficult to create a new national currency when the old one fails, because a Bitcoin economy can spring up naturally very quickly. It will also be hard to maintain a national currency with Bitcoin waiting to precipitate a bank run if the national currency is abused.
Preventing Bitcoin will require strong authoritarianism, which is not an efficient means of governing and will lose out to more free economies.
You are right. But only during the transitionary period. The very nature of money and the characteristics of state run currency will both result in the consolidation in one true store of value over a long enough time frame.
The only question is the time frame over which this full transition to Bitcoin happens.
There certainly is NO WAY state run currencies exist circa 2140, let alone nation states as we know them now.
Maybe. I think all bets are off beyond a 50 year time horizon. For almost everything. AGI and hyperautomation of production, human expansion into space, commercialization of fusion reactors ... all these things makes uncertainty clime to 100% for me on that timescale.
*climb
Uncertainty exists and entropy in any system tends towards infinity over time. You are right, but that effect is compounded in a system where the base layer of any trade itself is broken and can be controlled by a select few based on their personal beliefs and can exclude whomever they wish, then that base layer is not reflective of the true output of all the people.
But when there exists that can do away with such uncertainty (to a great extent, certainly cannot be absolute) and can streamline entropy and can tirelessly do so like anything ever before, there seems to be hope!
What do you mean by "base layer"?
why would a bank need to exist when I can be my own?
Many people will only self-custody. Nature of banking is ultimately going to be about yield on savings and credit.
How do we get the block space for this to become reality?
those things are unnecessary in a #ValueForValue economy backed by hard money
But there won't just be a value-for-value economy. Because people will always create markets for time arbitrage. Saying doing so is fraudulent or unethical, is really not going to stop it from happening, because massive production efficiencies can be gained that way.
the only economy that makes sense is one thatās #ValueForValue otherwise it *is* unethical, time arbitrage is perfectly fine when itās based off a #V4V exchange.
e.g. Futures contracts for wheat production; farmer gets money to live through the year, contract holder gets wheat at the end as āprofitā & since the value given isnāt inflated away you donāt need to worry about yield on savings.
it becomes an issues when you start gambling on the outcomes of these contracts, especially when they can be manipulated for financial gain.
IMO You just explained the current situation of Bitcoin!!! The future of bitcoin is so much more itās deflationary currency the value long term is only up with every new holder!! The impact on society globally with instant lightning the complete self control over oneās wealth!! The Generational wealth simply by holding oneās hard earned energy!! The changes and upgrades to electric grids and renewable energy because of Mining!! All of these and more can change societyās and governments as we know it IMO
In this future you envision, private citizens holding Bitcoin will be made illegal.
6102 coming. Are you going to fight it or let Bitcoin go down the same road as gold?
Some counties will try, yes.
In that world, what do you think the state-issued currency will be used for? Taxes, and paying government employees and contracts I suppose?
I wonder how inflationary it will be and how that will affect governmentsā ability to employ people and companies for workā¦
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