This is a good hypothesis of what’s going on with Polymarket https://www.joanwestenberg.com/decoding-trumps-53-odds-on-polymarket/
Discussion
I went to look at the biggest bet on trump
His position is in profit, and even him moves the needle only a point. The market already has $1.5bi
IMO prediction market are today the most relevant way to look at it
To me, 58% to 41% seems suspicious. Those odds seem skewed compared to polling and other betting markets.
then go bet dude
And if it's a game of manipulation why aren't the heavy Dem players pouring money on there side? They have $150mi to equalize the game why ain't they doing it?
It’s a hypothesis. I don’t know the answer just a theory 🤷🏻♂️
lol, if you really belive this go make a bet, your exprcted value is positive