I don't think seeing incremental growth is relevant for nostrs success. Nostr is freedom tech. We need to build so that we're ready for a more adversarial landscape, whenever that crosses a threshold of encroachment.
For nostr I'd expect spikes of growth with declining flatlines in between.
I'd rather have an ark with no users before a flood, than not have an ark to fill once it comes as nobody had seemed interested during a dry spell.
Ultimately we're all here building because we see the dangers of growing centralisation around us. The question to me is will some big events come that spur a big movement onto nostr (I think likely), or will incremental authoritarianism go unnoticed (so far this seems to be the case - eg Tiktok coming under the fold without a big exodus).
So for now, let's build so that we can handle a BIG intake of users, and so that the nostr is newb ready.