Back at it again with #SkepticismSundays 🤔

The goal of this thread (which I'll post weekly on Sunday's) is for discussing the uncertainties, shortcomings, and concerns some may have about Bitcoin.

NOT the positive aspects of it.

Discussing things with a critical thinking approach and level-headed discussion helps us learn where Bitcoin and it's community can improve and go from there. We had a *fantastic* amount of good conversations last week so I can't wait to see this week's!

What's gotten you thinking, has you concerned, or always irked you about Bitcoin, its ecosystem, etc. this week?

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Discussion

I suspect we are in for another series of forks as people battle over allowing ordinals or not. Talk is already starting on the fringes. It is likely to only get worse as the bull run gets under way.

hard fork? you mean "free money"?

Some prior contributors and heavy-hitters

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@apa

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@Jack Spirko

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@me

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@lord koby

🙏🙏

Too kind

🙏🫂💜

My skepticism boils down to “i would rather use monero in every situation i can think of”

I can’t think of a use case where Bitcoin performs better than Monero except perhaps as a speculative asset. But I don’t really need a speculative asset, I just want to transact.

This is actually a really good point. Besides network effect/liquidity, why use bitcoin ?

Maxi's would claim a fee reasons i think :

1. anything monero does, bitcoin can do eventually on L2's.

2. Larger deniability set when those equivalent measures are implemented.

3. Coinjoins are equivalent to rings sigs.

Good points. But then it becomes an ease of use question, right?

Which is more difficult:

1. Buying/selling monero

2. Figuring out how to use equivalent privacy tools on bitcoin

Monero is rediculously easy to be private using. Easy to mine/node too. Meanwhile lightning is a confusing mess. ( ooh to be private i JUST have to run another node along with my bitcoin node and ONLY maintain both going forward all the time. ) UX wise Monero is evidence that L1 ease of use is huge.

- there is no lightning or equivalent for Monero

- transactions are larger (because of privacy), so the blockchain becomes huge even with way fewer transactions

However, I think Monero isn't given enough attention, and people call it a "shitcoin" even though it clearly isn't; it's a truly decentralized proof-of-work protocol with no issuer (not a security).

It’s not ₿itcoin, so by definition it is a shitcoin. Privacy will come to 2nd, 3rd layers of ₿itcoin. Early days, still.

₿itcoin’s base layer trades privacy for ant-fragility. This has to be so in order to build a bulletproof foundation for all of humanity to build upon.

Shitcoins try to put too much in the base layer and are therefore doomed to break under stress.

It’s very simple. Not easy, but simple.

> Privacy will come to 2nd, 3rd layers of ₿itcoin.

This is irrelevant today though. You want to make a private transaction. Which is easier and more straightforward today?

> Doomed to break under stress

Monero’s base layer is explicitly design to adjust for varying levels of volume while Bitcoin’s is not (and we see that today for example)

How about nation state attacks?

₿itcoin thrives and gets stronger when under attack by nation states, like China. Monero would, poof, disappear.

I want ₿itcoin’s base layer to be an open book for all to read. Transparency. Full audit every 10 minutes. Tik tok, baby.

Privacy will come, be patient. Or continue shitcoining. But don’t try to call it something it’s not.

monero is also proof of work just like bitcoin. So idk what you mean by your first point.

> Privacy will come, be patient. Or continue shitcoining.

You’re saying wanting to simply transact privately is shitcoining?

Where does Bitcoin’s value come from it not from the supposed primary use case: transactions

You really want to compare a shitcoins POW to ₿itcoins? Here’s some perspective:

The Bitcoin Network is more than twice as powerful as the US Navy. Bitcoin is backed by 300 exahash and 10.6 gigawatts of energy. The dollar is backed by the US Navy which has 53 Virginia class attack submarines that have 30 megawatts each. 14 Ohio class balistic missile submarines with 45 megawatts each. 11 nuclear powered aircraft carriers with 195 megawatts each. 17 cruisers that are 60 megawatts each. 62 destroyers with 30 megawatts each. The entire US Navy is 4.3 gigawatts. ASICS btc miners have 2,200 x more computational power than general purpose computers. To complete with the current btc miners you would need ALL of them on Earth working together. And you’d still be short on computing power by 90%! Throw in ALL the Navy’s of the world and you’re short on power to complete. Plus, it’s decentralized.

Why would it go poof ? Banning asics is far easier than banning all cpu's .

Bitcoin has had a decade to get easier to use and become more private. It's become less private, or best case not more private.

Try banning ₿itcoin? That’s basically a joke now.

Not bitcoin, but asics that secure all that hashpower you were throwing around.

Consider the ongoing environmental policy attack on bitcoin right now. All it would have to do is taget ASIC manufacturers and tax at that level, or imports of specialized equipment like asics. This is not replicatable for cpus.

The difficulty adjustment will adjust. Hell, if we have to hash with pencil and paper, it will still work. 🤣😂

So if asics are successfully banned bitcoin just goes back to cpu's once the difficulty adjusts. I see, that could be.

In theory, yes. That was just one of Satoshi’s genius moves.

That’s true there is no lightning on Monero today.

But Lightning is also a big pain in the ass to use unless you go with a custodial option.

L2 is being researched for Monero but i have never needed it for anything either…

The larger transactions thing isn’t a thing anymore imo. It’s not like it was 4 years ago. They’re small and chain is prunable now too

Find myself concerned on usd on/off ramps in the future. I'd like to be able to spread my technicle ownership around to different jurisdictions- it would be great to have some held via el salvador, for example, as a hedge against us regulations- not as me an individual.

jurisdictions can be "imposed" on you. If you're a US citizen, you still are required to pay taxes to the US even if you keep all your bitcoin in El Salvador (even if you move there and permanently reside there).

but if you're concerned about exchanges, get used to using p2p now...

I see a tendency for Lightning to become increasingly centralized to fewer and fewer well-connected LSPs, essentially replicating existing payment providers (e.g. VISA). This can reduce privacy and make for "fewer doors to knock on" for influence.

Lightning node operation is significantly more complex than a typical Bitcoin core node, and carries a higher risk (uptime, hot funds, watchtowers to catch cheating, etc.). The long term health of Bitcoin depends on relatively high fee cost, complicating Lightning operation further (e.g. channel closures during high feerate environments).

There is hope though, as introduction of PTLCs, anchor aproaches, etc. can help in rease privacy and reduce risk. Still much more of an active endeavor than flipping a coin 256 times and generating an address.

I've been thinking about this one too.

Lightning nodes are growing, but yes there are some huge ones. Privacy is a little easier to deal with though, because:

1. Lightning can/is operated over TOR/onion routing

2. You can use a VPN

3. There is no KYC for a lightning wallet

Node running is getting easier every day. There is now software that will deal with your fees automatically.

Bitcoin miners are incentivized to take the highest fees, but lightning nodes are incentivized to take low fees. And with high on-chain fees, lightning providers are motivated to open high-liquidity channels and keep them open for longer.

Just testing this hypothesis… with Bitcoin as the base layer system, is lightning not simply a L2 service on top? As a service or technology on top of a system, if it proves to be not a satisfactory service over time (aka becomes too centralised) doesn’t that simply open the door for a improved L2 tech to step in and fill the void?

If lightning doesn't prove to be the best solution, it won't be because of centralization or privacy concerns. Those are both improving rapidly. It is easier than ever, and getting easier every day, to run your own node, very privately. There will almost certainly be very large nodes, but they still are not at all a point of control or failure.

Nonetheless, if lightning doesn’t do the job we hope it will won’t it simply be replaced with an improved L2 as dictated by market forces?

Logically, yes. Or Bitcoin settles into status of exclusively-store-of-value. Or gradually fades into obscurity and relevance only to nerds of obsolete tech, like guys who rebuild old cars or argue with each other over the syntax of dead languages.

I know what is currently going on with transactions is borderline activity that may be nefarious, but out of my own curiosity, would what is currently happening also be happening if #Bitcoin was thoroughly adopted as a currency worldwide, i.e replace the bunk transactions with true economic ones?

Lightning - Most wallets are custodial , and we have privacy issues on top of that. And i not very technical but lightning is somewhat hard to scale , meanwhile starknet is settling 500M transactions -.- .

There is no shortage of layer 2s and cool things running on Ethereum. There's a new/better/faster toy every week. Two problems come to mind:

1. Centralization. I'll bet they have something called "governance".

2. Ethereum isn't money.

Agree 100% . Other thing that upsets me btw , it seems that many talented people (from artists to devs) are not in here but in altcoins. And some ideas like zero knowledge proofs are more talked in altcoin circles.

Fungibility issues, permission to use bitcoin with any/all KYC venues such as even Swan, River, Unchained in the future!

I'm very concerned about this too. Actually a little less lately, since it seems like some states (Montana, Wyoming, South Carolina, probably Texas and Florida) are turning bitcoin-friendly and are willing to invoke states rights.

Could end up at the supreme court though, and they might lose.

My biggest concern has more to do with politics than anything technical. I worry ₿itcoiners will be vilified and turned into scapegoats and martyrs.

We’ve already seen “facts” don’t play any part in politics. I’m concerned this political blame game fervor will only increase as the wheels come off of the 🤡 🌎 bozo cart.

agreed. Get ready to be "associated" with white supremacists, mass-shooters, pedophiles, socialists, fascists, etc. in addition to the "criminals" you already are associated with.

Yup. Every vile thing the banksters and corrupt politicians in power engage in day to day will be projected onto ₿itcoin.

And make it stronger.

I'm concerned that state actors can effectively block #lightning channel operations by continuously forcing fees that are 10x or 100x more than they are now. When you control the fiat printer, this type of attack is relatively cheap.

One of my big concerns is regulatory and tax-related burdens that muck up the works.

Criminals throughout history who were not able to be prosecuted for their "real" crimes were prosecuted for "tax evasion".

Imagine you run a lightning node and every lightning transaction is seen as a taxable event, or money laundering, or commodity trading, or a new type of financial service that requires certification, regulation, and oversight.

ASICS.

Supply chain attacks on Asics.

Too easy right now. With billions of people needing to get a utxo, even for a single lighting channel, the fees will push them away because the don’t understand it. Scaling is hard, we need to consider today the steps we need to take for the future.

Channel factories are promising

Damn good, informative discussion. On Twatter, we would be flinging poo at each other

My reason for pessimism? Ordinals.

I fear what monkeys pick lovers will do to the bitcoin ethos of non censorship, privacy and freedom

The International Financial Mafia (IMF) is out here extorting Latin American countries left and right. And when they swoop in to supposedly save the day, they're just dragging these nations into their twisted circle of control. Now they're forcing Latin American countries to ban cryptocurrency, which is a straight-up bad move. I ain't got time for all these worthless shitcoins, but you better believe that #Bitcoin is going in the guacamole if we don't wise up and take action. We need to put an end to this madness and stand up.

#BitcoinRevolution might not be so peaceful after all, if we want to hold on to what is ours!

#GorillaUnit ⚡️🦍⚡️ #PlebChain

#GrowNostr #Nostr

Saylor loses his keys...

I’m sure you meant this as a joke however Attrition of BTC through loss is one of my biggest concern for the long term viability of BTC.

The challenge and difficultly of self custody and risk minimisation.

Third party risk with trust in signing devices that store key information.

Risk of passing custody information along to future generations.

I honestly wonder/worry how much of the current mined BTC will make it to the next generation.

21 million is already more realistically 18 million or less and it’s only been 14yrs. 15% attrition in only 14 short years.

I understand both the advances in self custody tech and the psychology of how we look after something that cost us something vs something that cost us almost nothing. Nonetheless, this concerns me greatly.