How do does one account for gold and silvers success relative to Bitcoin?
#AskNostr
Discussion
Time tested. China, Russia and India don't wanna share control with US.
With the btc/gold chart is how I do my accounting of bitcoin vs gold
Personally, I think gold has a track record in unsure times.
Silver to a lesser degree, but also the industrial demand angle.
Older folks, institutions, and Central Banks understand gold.
and they **like** custodians.
bitcoin only wins from the bottom-up, after a very long time
Track record
think about the fact that we're only just recently an internet society and the web first arose over 50 years ago.
i do believe bitcoin is inevitable, but i do not believe it is soon. at least a decade of gold as the predominant sound money meme (allowing that things can be "the dominant meme" longer than they're the best option on the menu)
also bitcoin market cap is just too damn small for all the freaky shit enormous entities are doing with metals
I denominate them in sats
Seriously this time: Precious metals are the drums of war. Not always literal formal war, but the global order is breaking apart. Without a hegenmon in charge to enforce, trust breaks down. Bitcoin is still not understood by 99.9% (probably including most Bitcoiners.)
Plus money is more felt than understood. Like a bridge over a river, you don't trust it because of some logic, you test it with your foot. After you cross it a lot, you step on it confidently.
Why would powers and elites turn to Bitcoin now, when they are in fear?
Bitcoin will take time. It will almost inevitably be the primary money of man for a thousand years (if we have that long), but the transition will take at least another decade or two.
For now Bitcoin "trades like a tech stock", where those loaded words are taken to mean it's a high-risk asset
Asset: a thing you can buy and sell inside the fiat financial system casino while trying to escape the theft of inflation built into fiat debt-based "money"
High-risk: we don't understand what this thing is but people buy and sell it
Almost nobody is going to really care sbout Bitcoin until they use it. And they won't use it until they need it. They will start to understand it when they care about it.
That said, life is full of problems. The world will get beaten up in different ways, and as that happens, Bitcoin will spread and rise to the top, because it has the best monetary properties. It's the ONLY thing that has the properties needed for the multipolar technological world. First they are going to try to go back to gold, but it will fail for the exact reasons that created fiat money in the first place.
There are multiple forces and structural factors that push everything to Bitcoin in probably one to two decades.
You think there should be a global power and that is the only way to peace? Seriously? What if we stop playing these Games of Thrones entirely by allowing no Thrones?
This.
Balance of Power secures stability better than hegemony because it lacks the asymmetry of incentives
Woah, slow down, sister. I think you are responding to me saying
"Without a global hegemon, trust breaks down."
That's not a normitive claim.
I don't WANT a global hegemon, but that is how the current order currently works. That's how fiat global trade works NOW.
Countries trust each other in trade deals because the hegemon will punish anybody who doesn't play by the rules.
Now that hegemony is breaking down, they will want to settle in neutral, trustless ways.
I PREFER trustless Bitcoin-based trade.
I stayed up half of last night writing an essay about it. Go read it 😉