do you suspect the future would/should have everyone running their own relays?

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Yes. That's the only way that you can be sure to have a copy of your own data. You'd be able to re-broadcast any note that's stored on your relay to any other list of relays in the future that you'd like to start to utilize.

so all publish events would be to your open relay, but those works be syndicated to other relays and most reading would happen from larger relays?

just trying to make sure i am understanding the model you have in mind

for example, relay.derekross.me only allows my pubkey (and 2 friends) to use it. in the future, i would use one of the various rebroadcast buttons via clients to rebroadcast a particular note or notes to other more powerful and public relays for everyone to consume.

Seems like a nice idea. Maybe something for the self-hosting people to add to their servers

yep. you can already do this. popular platforms like #[5] and Start9 come with relays now. Soon they all will making it easy for users to use with their favorite self hosting software.

It'd be great to have a backup service that automatically backs up my posts to either cloud or even some home "backup box" (it could be encrypted backup, but for nostr it doesn't matter that much).

Ideally it would automatically update with any new content I post, ideally also with comments and likes and make it easy to republish it to relays.

what you're describing is your own relay.

Agreed, but with additional functionality and UX specific for the case.

Relays are quite simple, so rather easy to add to existing products like Synology?

I believe you could run a relay on Synology right now with containerd.

And is it simple to set up relay to persist only your posts? (Maybe it could also persist the media I share as URLs, that would be cool)

I fully believe that all of this is doable, but the question is only how much work it is and who will be the first to package it into a nice product with simple UX.

Everyone hosts their own nodes and relays for all apps. Web3

😬

web3 is a marketing term used by VCs in an attempt to do a cash grab. this is different.